Match

US stocks were mixed pre-market (SPX +0.2%, NDX -0.2%) as Trump signaled a possible Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran as early as Wednesday, tempered by Iran-backed Houthi threats to disrupt Red Sea travel. Brent rose +1.1% to $80/bbl; gold and silver gained. Notable pre-mkt movers included $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -9% on surging AI spending, $Match(MTCH.US) -10% on disappointing paying users and revenues, and $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) +3% on lackluster Wegovy pill sales at competitor $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US). Equities remain fully priced with 2026 EPS estimates now $346 (+25% YoY) on AI and energy gains, implying a 22x forward P/E and an earnings yield below 10yr Treasury yields for the first time since early 2024, and before that 2000. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and an extended valuation.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $Disney(DIS.US), $Uber Tech(UBER.US), $Eli Lilly(LLY.US), $Kraft Heinz(KHC.US), $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US), and $Shopify (SHOP.US) report earnings today. On Friday, we get July employment numbers.

$Match(MTCH.US) +8% post-mkt despite guiding to FLAT FY’26 rev guidance YoY vs +3% YoY exp. and FY’26 EBITDA $1,303M at the midpoint vs $1,350M est.