Nio 1Q26 First Take: overall a solid print. Revenue came in slightly below expectations, but the company maintained a high GPM in a seasonally weak quarter, and the net loss was narrower than expected. More important than the print is the Q2 guide. With two key models — ES9 and ONVO L80 — set to start deliveries in May, the upbeat volume and revenue outlook implies healthy order intake for both. In detail: ① Vehicle revenue was RMB 22.8bn, just shy of the RMB 23.1bn consensus. The shortfall was mainly due to an ASP of RMB 273k vs. the RMB 277k expected, though ASP still rose by RMB 20k QoQ as the high-priced ES8 accounted for over half of the mix in Q1. ② Vehicle GPM was 18.8%. Despite weaker scale benefits and higher procurement costs, margin held at a high level and improved 70 bps QoQ, beating the 18.2% market view and the company’s prior guide for a flat QoQ margin, driven by an upward shift in mix that offset cost headwinds. ③ Opex was well controlled, with R&D cut to under RMB 2bn, mainly due to front-loaded model development and cost-down initiatives. Nio delivered OP of -RMB 300mn, better than the -RMB 1bn loss the market expected. The Q2 outlook is the key and again above expectations: ① Delivery guidance is 110k–115k, ahead of the 106k consensus. With only 29k delivered in Mar, this implies average monthly deliveries of 40k–43k in May/Jun. As ES8 lead times shortened from 4–5 weeks in Mar to 2–4 weeks in Apr and backlog eased, the incremental upside likely comes from ES9 and ONVO L80, indicating solid orders and the ability to ramp deliveries in line with intake. ② Total revenue guidance of RMB 32.8bn–34.4bn also tops the RMB 30.0bn consensus, with both volume and ASP above market assumptions. The guide implies Q2 vehicle ASP around RMB 270k, broadly flat QoQ. Given ES8’s Q1 mix already reached 54% and its backlog and deliveries are trending down, Q2’s high ASP is likely backfilled by the higher-priced ES9, reflecting management’s confidence in ES9 monthly run-rate. If ES9 can reach a steady 5k+ units per month, Nio’s GPM should stay elevated, with potential room for further upside. $NIO Inc(NIO.US) $NIO-SW(09866.HK)May 21 at 06:32 AMONVO0.00%09866+0.96%
Nio 4Q25 First Take: despite having pre-announced, the quarter still came in strong, beating the top end of guidance and Street estimates. Specifically: 1) Total revenue was RMB 34.7bn (+76% YoY), above the Street at RMB 33.6bn, driven by an upside in vehicle sales. This was the core driver of the beat. Vehicle sales revenue reached RMB 31.6bn vs. RMB 30.6bn expected. ASP climbed quickly QoQ from RMB 221k to RMB 253k, driven by the high-priced ES8’s strong outperformance. ES8 mix rose by 27ppt QoQ to 32%. The sharp ASP uplift also drove a meaningful improvement in vehicle GPM. Together with platformized supply-chain cost-down and scale benefits, 4Q vehicle GPM reached 18.1% (+340bps QoQ), in line with the prior guide of ~18%. 2) Opex discipline was notable and supported profit expansion. Costs were tightly managed across functions. S&M expense was just RMB 3.5bn, down RMB 650mn QoQ from RMB 4.2bn and below the RMB 4.0bn guide, driven by payroll savings from headcount reductions. R&D fell by RMB 360mn to RMB 2.0bn, below the Street’s RMB 2.5bn, as NT3.0 development wrapped up and efficiency improved. With revenue and GPM beats plus opex relief, net profit turned positive. OP was RMB 800mn, above the guided range high end of RMB 200–700mn. As for Q1 guidance in a seasonally soft quarter: Management provided the following. 1) Volume guide is below expectations: 80–83k units vs. the Street at 89k, implying Mar deliveries of 32–35k (Jan/Feb at 27k/21k). The miss likely reflects seasonal weakness and purchase tax rollback, ES8 delivery timing shifting some units to Q2 due to supply-chain disruptions, and softer ONVO L90 demand. 2) But revenue guide is above expectations: RMB 24.5–25.2bn vs. the Street at RMB 24.5bn. Despite the volume shortfall, revenue is guided above as ES8 mix keeps rising, lifting ASP to RMB 265–270k from RMB 253k in 4Q.$NIO Inc(NIO.US) $NIO-SW(09866.HK) $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG)Mar 10 at 06:49 AM09866+0.96%NIO-0.64%
Nio (3Q25 Minutes): Expects 20% vehicle gross margin in 2026, achieving full-year Non-GAAP profitabilityNov 25, 2025 at 10:17 AM09866+0.96%NIO-0.64%
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