US equities closed last week mixed: the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.72% to 26,522.54, the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 7,650.50 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.69% to 51,682.64. Singapore's Straits Times Index gave back 0.70% to 5,656.11. With the US reporting slate down to a single name, politics, euro-area surveys and Singapore's inflation print will set the tone.

Earnings calendar

US reporting is effectively a one-company week. Costco Wholesale (COST) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after Thursday's close, with consensus looking for earnings of about US$6.53 a share on revenue of roughly US$94.9bn. The wholesale club is the week's cleanest read on US consumer spending, where membership renewal rates and comparable-store sales carry more weight than the headline beat or miss. No Singapore-listed company is scheduled to report, leaving the local tape to macro data and flows.

Economic calendar

The US data slate is thin: the Richmond Fed manufacturing index on Tuesday, with the prior reading at 4, is the only release of note. Offshore, Tuesday's euro-area consumer confidence gauge is expected at -16.5 against -15.5 previously, and Wednesday's September flash manufacturing PMI is pencilled in at 52.7, unchanged from August. Hong Kong's August composite CPI lands the same day, after 1.7% year on year. Singapore's own week opens with second-quarter unemployment on Monday, previously 2.0%.

Events carry more weight than data. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is in the US for trade talks running through Wednesday, and the UN General Assembly's high-level week opens in New York on Tuesday, putting Iran, Ukraine and trade on one agenda. Corporate set-pieces cluster around AI: Alibaba's Yunqi conference runs from Tuesday to Thursday, Qualcomm's Snapdragon Summit is expected to showcase its next flagship mobile platform, and Meta Connect runs on Wednesday and Thursday.

US: what to watch

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first increase in three years, and the message since has been that the job is unfinished. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at the weekend that inflation pressure has spread beyond the oil shock into services, and cautioned against delay — a stance that keeps pressure on rate-sensitive growth shares. Costco's numbers matter less for their precision than for the read-through on whether households are still absorbing higher prices. The other pole is the AI trade: Nvidia shares have gone four months without a new high, and the argument over whether capital spending can keep outrunning returns to investors has moved into the mainstream.

Singapore: what to watch

The STI's 0.70% decline to 5,656.11 was far gentler than the Dow's 1.69% fall, and the index's direction still rests on its heavyweights: DBS closed Friday at S$76.86, OCBC at S$31.38 and UOB at S$41.78, with UOB the firmest of the three, while SGX ended at S$22.20. Flows have been supportive — SGX data show retail investors net bought S$888m of Singapore stocks in the eight sessions to 16 September, lifting 2026 inflows to S$4.02bn, with DBS, OCBC and SGX drawing most of the demand.

Wednesday's August CPI is the local print that matters. Headline inflation is expected at 2.3% year on year, up from 2.2%, with core running at 2.0% — the measure the central bank weights most heavily. A hotter number would work against yield-sensitive REITs and property names; a soft one would support the case for steady policy. Monday's unemployment reading, previously 2.0%, is unlikely to move the tape.

Risks to watch

Geopolitics sits at the top of the list: the UN General Assembly week compresses Iran, Ukraine and US-China trade into five days, and headlines can move oil and gold faster than any data release. The Fed's tightening bias is the second risk — if officials lean further into the broadening-inflation argument, yields rise and growth valuations come under pressure. Third, the September flash PMIs will show whether Europe's manufacturing recovery is holding at 52.7; a miss would revive global growth worries while the AI spending debate is unresolved. Mainland Chinese markets shut for the Mid-Autumn holiday at the end of the week, which can thin regional liquidity.

For information only; not investment advice.