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YIELD ON 10-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTE LAST DOWN 8.2 BASIS POINTS AT 4.588% US TREASURY YIELDS FALL AS US-IRAN DEAL SEEN CLOSER, 2-YEAR YIELD LAST DOWN 7.8 BASIS POINTS AT 4.045%

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YIELD ON 10-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTE LAST DOWN 8.2 BASIS POINTS AT 4.588% US TREASURY YIELDS FALL AS US-IRAN DEAL SEEN CLOSER, 2-YEAR YIELD LAST DOWN 7.8 BASIS POINTS AT 4.045%

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US TSY MARCH BUDGET $TATEMENT: RECEIPTS MARCH RECORD $384.863 BLN, +5%; OUTLAYS $548.963 BLN, +4%

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U.S. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, leading investors to flock to the U.S. Treasury market, causing both short-term and long-term bond yields to decline. The yield on the two-year bond fell by 4.1 basis points to 3.79%. The yield on the ten-year bond dropped by 4.8 basis points to 4.3%. The yield on the thirty-year bond decreased by 3.3 basis points to 4.88%

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After the ceasefire in the bond market, investors flocked to U.S. Treasuries, causing both short and long-term yields to decline

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JPMorgan Asset Management is increasing its holdings in U.S. and U.K. government debt, believing that inflation concerns have led to overselling in some parts of the bond market. Fund manager Arjun Vij is focusing on short-term bonds, which have been particularly impacted following the Iran conflict. He favors bonds with maturities of two to five years, identifying investment opportunities in U.S., Australian, and U.K. bonds, stating, "We think some value has emerged, and this is the area where we should be adding first." The fund has delivered returns exceeding 14% over the past three years

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JPMorgan Asset Management Buys U.S. and U.K. Bonds, Believes Inflation Fears Have Oversold Some Debt

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U.S. stocks declined last week due to rising oil prices and war risks, with the S&P 500 falling 1.67% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping over 2%. Oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel amid heightened tensions with Iran, prompting a cautious market tone and a shift towards energy and defensive sectors. Cryptocurrencies also fell, with Bitcoin near $66,000. Interest rates are a concern, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.42% and mortgage rates approached 6.43%, impacting housing demand.

- U.S. stocks fell as war risks and rising oil prices impacted market sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 1.67% on Friday.  
- Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel amid ongoing tensions with Iran, prompting investors to reduce risk and shift towards energy and defensive sectors.  
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.42%, while rising mortgage rates near 6.43% continue to affect housing demand.

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The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Mar. 29

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U.S. $69 billion Treasury bond demand weakens, and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond widened on Tuesday. The yield on the two-year bond rose by 7.5 basis points to 3.904%. The yield on the ten-year bond rose by 3.2 basis points to 4.368%. The yield on the thirty-year bond rose by 2.1 basis points to 4.933%

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"Bond Market" Weak Demand for U.S. Treasury Auctions, Two-Year Treasury Yield Increase Expands

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The 10-year U.S. Treasury swap spread is seen as a key indicator of war-related financial stress, with a significant level at 60 basis points, according to ING. Since the conflict began, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by about 45 basis points to approximately 4.37%, which may impact risk assets like bitcoin.

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10-Year U.S. Treasury Swap Spread: A Potential Indicator of War-Related Financial Stress

The USDJPY is extending upward, driven by rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Crude oil increased by 9.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.257%. The pair is approaching the January high of 159.447, with key support levels at 158.875-158.90. If momentum continues, targets include 160.00 and 161.92. Short-term support is provided by the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages at 159.05 and 158.99, respectively. A drop below these levels could shift the bias to bearish.

Schw Interm Us Trsy(SCHR.US)

YIELD ON 10-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTE LAST DOWN 8.2 BASIS POINTS AT 4.588% US TREASURY YIELDS FALL AS US-IRAN DEAL SEEN CLOSER, 2-YEAR YIELD LAST DOWN 7.8 BASIS POINTS AT 4.045%

US TSY MARCH BUDGET $TATEMENT: RECEIPTS MARCH RECORD $384.863 BLN, +5%; OUTLAYS $548.963 BLN, +4%

After the ceasefire in the bond market, investors flocked to U.S. Treasuries, causing both short and long-term yields to decline

JPMorgan Asset Management Buys U.S. and U.K. Bonds, Believes Inflation Fears Have Oversold Some Debt

The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Mar. 29

"Bond Market" Weak Demand for U.S. Treasury Auctions, Two-Year Treasury Yield Increase Expands

10-Year U.S. Treasury Swap Spread: A Potential Indicator of War-Related Financial Stress

USDJPY Technicals. The USDJPY continues the stretch to the 2026 high.