Hey bros! This article is mainly divided into three parts: reviewing this week's market situation -- trading performance from July to now -- weekend news and expected directions for next week.

A brief review of this week's market:

This week's hawkish Fed meeting minutes and escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts should have tanked market sentiment for the entire week. Fortunately, mainland policies + Southbound capital held the bottom of the Hong Kong market, causing the overall market to only fluctuate without a one-sided crash.

Notably: The escalation of Middle East conflicts broke years of stock trading habits. Previously, everyone assumed: geopolitical turmoil = buy gold for hedging. But this week, the market changed tactics directly! Funds poured into crude oil for hedging, and gold's safe-haven attribute completely failed.

Sector-wise:

Mid-week, chips, CPO, and memory stocks suddenly surged violently, with some stocks skyrocketing 20% in a single day. Market sentiment was red-hot. However, profit-taking flooded in the next day, leading to a sharp drop by week's end — a classic one-day wonder. Buying at highs meant getting trapped.

AI cloud software and internet leaders were the best safe havens for the entire week. Even if you didn't make much, at worst you wouldn't lose money.

Trading performance from July 2nd to 12th:

A total of 8 trades were made: 4 profitable, 3 losing, and 1 still held. Overall profit is +34.5% (12% unrealized gain not included).

Mainly ultra-short-term trading (guerrilla tactics): Selecting individual stocks based on hot sectors where capital rotates. After entering a position, set a stop-loss (generally between 3%-5% of cost). Hit the stop-loss and exit immediately to effectively control risk. However, if the price rises significantly on the same day, raise the stop-loss. For example, if it rises 8% that day, first decide whether to take profits. If you judge it can continue rising, set the cost price as the new stop-loss. Then, with the guarantee of no loss, gamble for higher profits. If it meets expectations and continues rising the next day, move the stop-loss up again. Gamble for even higher profits while ensuring you have some profit locked in. This is my recent short-term "guerrilla" method. Results have been relatively optimistic so far, haha. Of course, with the current market's rapid shifts, selecting the right sectors and individual stocks is key.

Weekend news summary + focus points for next week:

1. SK Hynix, as a global top-tier AI memory and HBM leader, had its pre-IPO listing on US markets this Friday. It surged over 12% on its first day, setting a record for overseas companies raising funds in the US. It officially transitions to regular trading on July 13th (Monday). This will directly drive sentiment for the global memory and semiconductor sectors and will completely dominate the opening rhythm of Hong Kong's tech hardware stocks next week!
 

Short-term sentiment directly benefits Hong Kong-listed memory chips, semiconductors, and HBM-related targets. It will repair the panic sentiment from the collective chip plunge at the end of this week. Tech hardware should see a repair and rebound next week.
 

But everyone, absolutely do not blindly chase the highs! The essence of this Hynix listing is the global reallocation of capital into top-tier core chip assets. Capital will prioritize embracing the leaders. Most small and mid-cap chip stocks in Hong Kong will only enjoy short-term sentiment dividends without sustainability. It's still a one-day wonder, short-term trading play.
 

Hynix's listing + institutions' bullish view that the AI memory gap will persist until 2030 directly proves the long-term logic of the sector is intact. It's just that short-term hot money speculation has receded. Next week, hardware is only suitable for light-position, short-term trading to catch the repair. Do not heavily chase the rally.


2. Middle East geopolitics continues to ferment: Unstable situation, oil prices fluctuating at high levels, continuing to divert safe-haven capital.


3. US Treasury bonds, US dollar night session movements: If they maintain high intensity, they will continue to suppress sentiment in high-valuation sectors.

4. The biggest catalyst next week: US June CPI on July 15th (Tuesday, 20:30)

This is the core data that will set the market's direction next week!

✅CPI higher than expected: Hawkish expectations intensify further, US dollar and Treasuries remain strong, tech and gold continue under pressure;
 

✅CPI lower than expected: Rate cut expectations are restored, liquidity warms up, AI software and tech internet heavyweights welcome a repair rally.
 

As for the real blockbuster data, June PCE (the Fed's most-watched inflation indicator), we have to wait until July 31st for its release. That's still over half a month away, no need to panic in advance.

The market will tend to be cautious on Monday and Tuesday, with capital generally waiting for the CPI data.

Only after the data lands on Tuesday night will a clear direction for the latter half of the week emerge.

When the market is fragmented and rotation is chaotic, less trading, fewer pitfalls, and discipline are enough to outperform most people.

The market always offers the next opportunity. Principal capital and mindset are the true confidence of long-term winners.

Next week, continue with short-term "guerrilla" trading, closely follow the earnings theme, stay calm, and don't be greedy!

See you tomorrow!

$TENCENT(00700.HK) 

$KINGDEE INT'L(00268.HK) 

$CHIFENG GOLD(06693.HK)