Nomura Says Rectification Order, Fine on Trip.com Group Limited Exceed Expectations; Maintains Neutral Rating
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Nomura maintains a Neutral rating on Trip.com with a $51 target price, noting that the recent RMB5.3 billion antitrust penalty exceeded expectations. The regulator found Trip.com abused its dominant position in China's online hotel booking market. Nomura warns of long-term structural impacts and forecasts non-GAAP operating margin declines for fiscal 2026-2027, while competitors like Meituan may gain ground.
Nomura issued a research report saying that the State Administration for Market Regulation announced on Jul 25 the results of a six-month antitrust investigation into TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) -2.400 (-0.675%) Short selling $927.01M; Ratio 37.862% . The authority determined that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) -2.400 (-0.675%) Short selling $927.01M; Ratio 37.862% held a dominant position in China's online hotel booking market and had abused that position since 2020. It ruled that some of the company's business practices restricted competing platforms from obtaining hotel inventory and competitive pricing, interfering with hotels' channel and pricing autonomy. The regulator ordered rectification measures, imposed fines and confiscated illegal gains totaling more than RMB5.3 billion, with the fine equivalent to 11% of the company's net cash balance as of 2Q26.
Nomura said the total penalty exceeded its previous estimate of RMB3 billion. Although investors are likely to treat it as a one-off financial impact, the required adjustments to TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) -2.400 (-0.675%) Short selling $927.01M; Ratio 37.862% 's domestic hotel booking business could have a long-term structural impact on this high-margin segment. Meanwhile, competitors such as MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) +2.000 (+2.240%) Short selling $1.36B; Ratio 23.008% and Douyin may take the opportunity to narrow the hotel supply gap and strengthen their product offerings.
In response to the ongoing adjustments in the domestic hotel booking business, Nomura forecast that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) -2.400 (-0.675%) Short selling $927.01M; Ratio 37.862% 's non-GAAP operating margin for fiscal 2026 and 2027 will decline by 3 ppts and 1 ppt YoY, respectively. The broker maintained a Neutral rating and a USD51 TP on Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) . Its top picks in the China internet sector are BABA-W (09988.HK) +1.900 (+1.712%) Short selling $2.07B; Ratio 31.994% , TENCENT (00700.HK) +4.400 (+0.993%) Short selling $1.04B; Ratio 16.256% , MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) +2.000 (+2.240%) Short selling $1.36B; Ratio 23.008% , NTES (09999.HK) +7.400 (+3.874%) Short selling $332.25M; Ratio 32.023% and J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) +0.160 (+1.626%) Short selling $106.99M; Ratio 27.837% . (gc/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-27 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)
