TSLA240809C220000.US

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) cancelled the launch at the last minute, and I heard it dropped -4% after hours. So, did they not give Musk any face?

Good thing I didn't go, otherwise it would've been a wasted trip.

$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)$SpaceX(SPCX.US) An American retail investor said this was the worst summer since he became an adult. He used all the savings he had accumulated over 5 years plus 3x leverage, and all in on Musk's SpaceX space stocks. As soon as he FOMO bought at the high, he encountered a crash in the first month of listing, directly triggering a margin call and losing everything. He couldn't even come up with next month's mortgage payment. Walking by the side of Wall Street, watching the K-line on the electronic screen turning green all the way, many retail investors around him who were also heavily invested in space stocks stopped and squatted by the roadside, holding their heads and sighing silently, feeling like they had fallen into the darkest moment of their shattered space dream.

After all, who would have thought that when the largest IPO in history was first listed, the whole market was hyping Musk's Mars colonization myth, shouting that SpaceX was the "starting point of human space civilization." But the peak of $225 hadn't even warmed up before it plunged 40% in a month, with a trillion-dollar market cap directly evaporating into thin air. It even fell below the issue price. The leveraged crowd simply couldn't withstand this sharp drop and were forced into closing positions, losing every last cent of their principal.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) has been buying a little bit here and there recently, and Tesla's recent news isn't actually bad.

Delivered 480,000 vehicles in the second quarter, so car sales have somewhat recovered. European sales are also rebounding, and Robotaxi has expanded to Miami. Logically, these news should drive the stock up, but the stock price hasn't reacted much.

The reason is simple: the market already knew about these things, and they were priced in earlier. Now everyone just wants to see how much money Tesla can actually make right now.

To sell more cars, they've been offering discounts and low-interest loans. While sales volume has increased, profits haven't necessarily followed. This year, they're also planning to spend over $20 billion on AI, Robotaxi, and robots. The story is certainly big, but the spending is also really aggressive.

The recent fatal accident investigation found the driver pressed the accelerator to the floor, so it can't be entirely blamed on FSD. Therefore, the impact isn't as severe as initially thought. Instead, Musk is under investigation again for getting involved in politics. While this kind of thing won't immediately affect the company's performance, it easily makes people think he's getting distracted again.

Now we're just waiting for the earnings report on July 22nd to see if car sales are still profitable, how many Robotaxis are actually running, and when the robots can really start working.

To put it bluntly, Tesla isn't short on stories right now; what it lacks is turning those stories into money. If the earnings report delivers, the stock has a chance to keep moving up. If it's just Musk on stage talking about the future again with mediocre actual profits, it's likely to get sold off after a brief rally. So, you can keep an eye on this level, but there's no need to rush in and chase every piece of good news.

Won't do much technical analysis here; rarely look at that logic.