TSMZ

The Week

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) fell 8.98% this week to close at $412.61, underperforming the S&P 500 by about 7.03 percentage points. The S&P 500 slipped 1.95%. The week started around $453.55 on Monday, then drifted lower each day. Thursday touched a weekly low of $407.13 before Friday ended at $412.61, with a weekly range of 10.42%. Relative to the 60-day high of $487.47, the close sits about 15.4% below, and the stock is now beneath its 60-day moving average of $429.18.

Key Events

The week’s core event was TSMC’s third-quarter earnings release on Friday. The company posted a quarterly profit of more than NT$763 billion, a record high and its sixth straight quarter of record profit. Management struck an upbeat tone on AI demand, saying capital expenditure would far exceed $100 billion over the next three years. At the same time, TSMC is weighing a Texas expansion and insisting on fab control in talks with Musk. In Japan, the Kumamoto 3nm fab gained government subsidy eligibility. Despite strong numbers, the stock fell hard this week. The market focused instead on AI financing pressures and rate-hike expectations driving the broader tech sell-off.

Analyst Ratings

Of 21 analysts covering TSMC, 14 rate it buy, 6 rate it outperform, and 1 rates it hold, with no underperform or sell ratings. The consensus rating is strong buy. The consensus target price is $584.39, about 41.6% above this week’s close of $412.61. The target range runs from $440 to $1,000, showing wide dispersion. Within the semiconductor industry, TSMC ranks 18th among 78 companies by analyst coverage, against an industry mean of 14 covering analysts.

The Week Ahead

Next week brings several US data points: the NAHB housing market index on Monday, housing starts and building permits on Tuesday, and EIA weekly crude and Cushing crude inventories on Wednesday. These figures mostly reflect housing and energy conditions, not a direct signal for semis. But they can shift rate expectations and risk appetite for tech. The bigger thread from this week remains AI funding stress and the tech sell-off. Next week’s AI-related earnings will draw the most attention.

In Short

TSMC faced a sharp split this week between strong earnings and a falling share price. Q3 profit hit a record, and the AI outlook stayed positive, yet the stock dropped nearly 9% and lagged the market by more than 7 points. Analyst ratings remain constructive: 20 of 21 rate it buy or outperform, and the consensus target sits more than 40% above spot. But the latest trading day’s flow shows large-lot money as a net seller, pointing to lingering selling pressure. Valuation stays elevated at about 26.9x P/E and 9.7x P/B. What matters next is whether AI funding fears ease, and how next week’s tech earnings reprice sentiment.

This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.