- The S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday amidst a continued market sell-off following a recent rally.
- The energy sector outperformed as Brent crude rebounded nearly 4 % driven by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
- The real estate sector suffered the steepest declines after Freddie Mac reported that 30-year mortgage rates rose for a fifth consecutive week to 6.69 %.
- Redfin reported that rising mortgage rates pushed US pending home sales to a 3-month low.
- The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.85 %, causing a 1.7 % month-over-month drop in pending sales and a 4 % decline in mortgage purchase applications.
- Active listings reached 1.49 million with 3.6 months of supply, maintaining strong buyer bargaining power as sellers outnumbered buyers.
- In 2026, second lien and home equity line of credit residential mortgage-backed securitization issuance reached $24 billion, the highest since the Great Financial Crisis, with a projection of $41 billion for the year.
- Analysts from Bank of America believe growth potential remains due to high first mortgage rates and an estimated $2 trillion of eligible loans from previous low-rate vintages.
- Meanwhile, spreads on AAA-rated second lien securitizations are comparable to non-qualified mortgages, and recent spikes in Treasury yields have led to widening agency MBS spreads, reflecting broader market concerns.
- Bank of America Securities' analyst Paul Ciana advises investors to adopt a defensive strategy for August based on historical market patterns.
- The latest seasonality report highlights a tendency for increased market volatility and potential downturns during this period.
- Investors are recommended to remain cautious and ready to hedge against unexpected market shifts.
- Trump's $200 billion GSE order temporarily lowered mortgage rates below 6% by March 2026.
- However, resumed U.S.-Iran fighting led to a surge in WTI crude, pushing gas prices above $4 and increasing Treasury yields.
- As a result, mortgage rates escalated to a wartime high of 6.75%, prompting economists to raise concerns about the depletion of the GSE cash reserves.
- Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose to 6.49%, reversing a previous decline, as tensions with Iran raised concerns over oil prices and borrowing costs.
- Freddie Mac reported this increase following the end of a ceasefire, which may challenge the stability of financing conditions amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Higher rates continue to deter significant recovery in home sales, with June sales of existing homes falling by 2.4%, indicating buyer sensitivity to financing costs despite slightly adjusted forecasts from Zillow predicting rates around 6.3% by year-end.
- Agency mortgage-backed securities issuance fell 3% to $118.5 billion in June, while overall second-quarter issuance rose 11% to $374.0 billion due to increased purchase volumes.
- Non-agency issuance is on track for a record year, with predictions of $236 billion for 2026, despite a quarterly drop in non-QM issuance.
- Prepayment speeds for conventional MBS increased, while Ginnie Mae speeds fell, indicating shifts in market dynamics amid a high-rate environment.