Citi Raises Full-yr HK Home Price Growth Forecast to 12%, Recommends SWIREPROPERTIES/ LINK REIT/ SHK PPT
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Citi raised its full-year 2026 HK home price growth forecast to 12% due to low saleable units. It also upgraded Central Grade A office rental forecasts to 3% amid low vacancy rates. Based on strong retail and property outlooks, Citi ranked retail first in sector preference for H2 2026, recommending SWIREPROPERTIES, LINK REIT, and SHK PPT as top stock picks.
With the number of saleable units at a four-year low, Citi expected local home prices to rise 12% in 2026, compared with a 10.6% increase so far this year (versus the broker's previous forecast of 8%). Citi also estimated home prices will rise a further 6% in 2027, though they will still be 11% below the historical peak.
Meanwhile, the vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Central sank to a three-year low, supporting the broker's upward revision of its 2026 rental forecast to 3%, from the previous 2%.
Retail sales in 5M26 added 11% YoY, while street shop vacancy rates were at a two-year low, also supporting the broker's forecast for flat retail spot rents in 2026.
Based on a better-than-expected retail outlook, paired with residential and Central office performance meeting market expectations, Citi's sector preference ranking for 2H26 is retail first, followed by Central offices, residential properties, and then other office segments.
Citi's top stock picks were SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) +0.220 (+0.992%) Short selling $7.05M; Ratio 14.654% , LINK REIT (00823.HK) +0.600 (+1.531%) Short selling $110.07M; Ratio 27.097% and SHK PPT (00016.HK) +1.300 (+1.066%) Short selling $137.45M; Ratio 35.781% .
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-21 16:25.)