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Ifo Institute Publishes Deteriorating Business Outlook for Germany

German March Services and Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Values to be Released

Eurozone Stock Futures Fall Collectively

Euro Stoxx 50 and German DAX Index Futures Down

German January Import Price Index Rises 1.1% MoM

Germany Q4 GDP adjusted for working days 同比增长终值为 0.4%

Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX Futures Decline, FTSE Futures Rise

Eurozone Investor Sentiment Rises to Seven-Month High

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Euro area Q1 GDP confirmed at 0.1% Q/Q, the weakest in nine quarters, with industrial output falling 0.9% Q/Q, the sharpest drop in two years. Employment growth slowed to 0.1% Q/Q, with Germany and France facing significant job losses. Consumer confidence is declining, leading to expectations of reduced household spending and further economic pressure in Q2. The ECB may need to maintain an accommodative stance due to these economic challenges, particularly in France and Germany, which heavily influence euro area demand.

- The Eurozone's GDP confirmed a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth for the first quarter, marking one of the weakest expansions in over two years.  
- Industrial production declined sharply by 0.9%, primarily due to weak energy output and a significant drop in non-durable goods, while employment growth slowed notably to just 0.1%.  
- Consumer confidence is declining, and businesses plan to cut jobs at the fastest rate in five years, suggesting further demand-side pressures and potentially negative impacts on GDP growth in the upcoming quarter.

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ICYMI - Euro area GDP weakest in 9 quarters, jobs slow, industry falls sharpest in 2 years

ECB's Lane stated that monetary policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, influenced by incoming data on inflation, wages, growth, and financial markets. He highlighted that supply-driven energy shocks are negatively impacting euro area growth, with global shocks causing more significant damage than regional ones. Inflation risks are being monitored closely, particularly regarding wage growth and pricing behavior. The current economic environment is more contained than in 2022, but the ECB must remain vigilant against inflation expectations becoming unanchored.

- European Central Bank's Lane highlighted that supply-driven energy shocks could reduce Eurozone GDP growth by approximately 0.2–0.3 percentage points due to rising oil prices.  
- Lane emphasized that global energy shocks have a more destructive impact than regional shocks, leading to increased costs and stronger inflationary pressures.  
- He noted that the current economic environment differs from 2022, with softer inflation and wage pressure, while the ECB's policy response will rely on data regarding inflation persistence and broader economic indicators.

ECBs Lane:Monetary policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis

European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane has stated that the increase in sales price expectations suggests that production cost pressures will lead to higher output prices in the coming months. According to Jin10, Lane emphasized the correlation between rising production costs and the anticipated increase in output prices, highlighting the potential impact on the economy.

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ECB Chief Economist: Rising Sales Price Expectations Indicate Higher Output Prices Ahead

The German Ministry of Transport will invest €1 billion over four years to enhance electric truck charging infrastructure. This initiative aims to support the transition to battery-electric commercial vehicles, promoting energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder emphasized the importance of heavy-duty road freight transport for Germany's economy while addressing climate goals. The funding will facilitate logistics companies in adopting electric trucks, contributing to cleaner air and reduced noise pollution. Germany plans to achieve 80% renewable electricity by 2030, phasing out coal entirely.

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€1 Billion To Be Invested In German Electric Truck Charging

European Central Bank member Olli Rehn indicated that data suggests the onset of stagflation due to the Iran war and rising energy prices. He noted slight growth in the euro area and inflation at 3%. While the current shock is less severe than in 2022, it deviates from the ECB's outlook. Policymakers are cautious about interest rate hikes, awaiting more data on the conflict's impact. Eurozone growth is expected to soften, with France reporting a rise in unemployment to 8.1%. Investors anticipate a rate increase in June, but officials remain hesitant to confirm.

- European Central Bank governing council member Olli Rehn warned of signs of stagflation due to the Iran conflict and rising energy prices.  
- He noted that eurozone growth for the first quarter was only slightly positive, with inflation accelerating to 3%, and emphasized that current shocks are not as severe as seen during the price surge in 2022.  
- Despite inflation surpassing the ECB's 2% target, policymakers remain cautious about interest rate hikes, waiting for further information on the wider impacts of the conflict.

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ECB’s Rehn says data show first signs of stagflationary shock

The ECB is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, according to a Reuters poll where 85% of economists agree. Rising oil prices, exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, are contributing to inflation levels above the ECB's target. However, the ECB faces a policy dilemma, as aggressive tightening could negatively impact fragile economic growth while trying to manage inflation expectations.

- A Reuters poll indicates that 85% of economists anticipate a 25 basis point increase in the ECB's deposit rate to 2.25% next month.  
- Current inflation is driven by oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to ongoing Middle East conflicts, pushing inflation over one percentage point above the ECB's target.  
- The ECB faces a dilemma, as aggressive tightening to curb inflation may negatively impact fragile economic growth.

ECB expected to raise rates in June as inflation risks grow

German wholesale prices reached a three-year high, rising 6.3% in April due to a 37.3% increase in petroleum costs following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This surge is contributing to an inflation rate of 2.9% in Germany, which may exceed 3% in May as companies pass on higher energy costs to consumers. The ongoing Iran war is causing trade and transport disruptions, leading to increased costs globally and renewed cost-of-living pressures in Europe.

- Wholesale energy prices increased by 6.3% in April due to a 37.3% rise in petroleum costs after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  
- In Germany, inflation reached 2.9% in April and is expected to surpass 3% in May as companies transfer increased energy expenses to consumers.  
- The ongoing war in Iran is causing global trade and transport disruptions, contributing to rising costs and cost-of-living challenges in Europe.

German wholesale prices hit 3-year high on Iran war impact

ECB's Muller emphasizes the need for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz to avoid a rate hike in June. Despite rising inflation due to the US-Iran conflict, he remains optimistic about the Eurozone's economic foundation, which has not entered stagflation. The Eurozone GDP showed a modest 0.1% growth in Q1, with a slowdown expected in Q2. ECB President Lagarde notes a "double uncertainty" regarding energy shocks and their effects on wages and prices, suggesting potential interest rate hikes if conditions do not improve.

- The Eurozone has not yet fallen into stagflation, and there is no reason to talk about recession.  
- Müller expresses cautious optimism about the economic fundamentals despite rising inflation and economic activity suppression from geopolitical tensions.  
- The European Central Bank needs to respond quickly to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid interest rate increases in June, with officials warning that two rate hikes may be necessary if conditions do not improve.

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ECB's Muller: The ECB will need a fast resolution on Hormuz to hold in June

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According to Eurostat, on a seasonally adjusted basis, Eurozone GDP in 1Q26 rose 0.1% QoQ (up 0.2% in 4Q25); and increased 0.8% YoY (up 1.3% in 4Q25). Both figures were unchanged from the preliminary estimates and in line with market expectations. (su/a) AASTOCKS Financial News

- In the first quarter of 2026, the Eurozone's GDP experienced a sequential increase of 0.1%.  
- Year-on-year, the GDP grew by 0.8%, reflecting a decline from 1.3% in the previous quarter.  
- These figures align with preliminary estimates and meet market expectations, according to data from Eurostat.

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Eurozone 1Q26 GDP Rises 0.1% QoQ, In Line

SIEGY

European stocks are recovering as investors anticipate President Trump's meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, focusing on trade and geopolitical issues. The FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are all in positive territory. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data suggests no imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Oil demand is expected to contract significantly due to geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have rebounded amid strong central bank demand, despite rising U.S. bond yields. Siemens has announced a new $7 billion share buyback program.

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