HBM can and largely is escaping the worst parts of the old DRAM $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) cycle, especially while AI/token demand stays strong. It doesn’t kill cycles completely, but it changes their character from violent boom-bust into a much longer, higher-quality growth cycle what analysts are calling an AI memory supercycle.

The mainstream story blames commodity nature.

All chips are basically the same: from price wars to hoarding inventory.

That’s real, but it’s mostly an amplifier, not the root cause. The real structural problem is supply takes forever to adjust:

- Building a new fab costs $10B+ and takes 2–3+ years.

- Once you start, you can’t easily stop or pivot.

- Demand can spike hard (new phones, cloud, pandemic, etc.) then slow down after 1–2 years.

- By the time new supply arrives, the market is often already oversupplied, then prices crash and everyone loses money.

- In downturns, nobody wants to cut production first (prisoner’s dilemma, especially Samsung in the past). So losses get maximized.

This created the classic 2–3 year boom and bust pattern.

@Captain's Treasure