$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

SPCX: Hold, But Don’t Rush to Average Down

SpaceX’s fundamentals remain impressive, but the stock’s fall below its $135 IPO price reflects a genuine valuation and cash-flow problem. Q2 2026 revenue surged 92% YoY to $7.8bn, adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5bn and AI revenue jumped 247% to $2.56bn. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12m, reinforcing the underlying growth story. (Reuters⁠)

The concern is capital intensity: Q2 capex hit $18.4bn, with roughly $15.8bn directed toward AI. Despite positive AI adjusted EBITDA, SpaceX remains deeply free-cash-flow negative. Investors are therefore questioning whether future AI returns can justify today’s spending. (MarketWatch⁠)

Bloomberg highlighted a potentially larger near-term overhang: up to 911.5m shares became eligible for sale on August 6, worth about $116bn at the reported valuation. Importantly, the nine-stage lock-up release does not dilute existing shareholders; it increases potential tradable supply and could pressure prices. (Yahoo Finance⁠)

Technically, momentum has weakened sharply. For option writers, patience is preferable: consider cash-secured puts around $90–100 or defined-risk put spreads, while existing holders could sell covered calls around $125–135.

Verdict: HOLD, but wait for lock-up selling to stabilise before adding.

Not financial advice.