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Aug 19 at 08:10 AM
My call: US$136
Why: Earnings are the big catalyst. Alibaba reports before the U.S. market opens on Aug. 20, so tomorrow’s entire session will be driven by the results and guidance. But expectations are high. This is why I wouldn't predict $140+ tomorrow. If cloud growth or AI spending guidance disappoints, BABA could easily fall back toward $120–123.
HK: More
The reason I'm expecting a relatively large move is that cloud/AI growth is the key number investors are watching, while Alibaba's heavy AI investment is putting pressure on current profitability. Consensus revenue is aroud RMB269bn, with adjusted EPS expected to decline year-on-year.
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