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Serenity

Aug 31 at 09:20 AM

Imagine Celestial ($Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) acquisition) was public.

The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B)

Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B.

And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO programs.

Celestial's 2026 Q2 earnings would have been:

- Close to $0 revenue (Marvell said "revenue and earnings since the acquisition were not material")

- Losing -$12.5M/quarter ($50M/year)

Would people who knew what they were talking about looking at qualification cycle players say...

1. based on Celestial's Q2 P/S numbers and because it was losing -$12.5M a quarter... That it's a worthless meme stock?

Or

2. with CPO hyperscaler opportunities for 2028, it should be valued at $6-10B?

And I think that's a core cultural disagreement between US / EU cultures + markets.

If you knew how to evaluate qualification cycle players, which number actually matters? I'd argue overwhelmingly the latter.

Marvell Tech

Marvell Tech

USMRVL

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