$Vistra(VST.US)

Vistra: AI Needs Power, But VST Needed a Reality Check

AI needs electricity, but that narrative alone could not justify Vistra’s climb toward $220. At roughly $139, VST is down about 37% from its 52-week high of $219.82. (MarketWatch)

The weakness looks more like valuation compression than a fundamental collapse. Q2 2026 revenue fell 5.5% YoY to $4.02 billion and net income to $305 million, while unrealised hedge losses distorted GAAP earnings. More importantly, adjusted EBITDA actually rose 31% to $1.77 billion. Management maintained FY2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8–$7.6 billion and free cash flow of $3.925–$4.725 billion. (Vistra Corp. Investor Relations)

Fundamentally, the AI-power thesis remains attractive, but investors are questioning how quickly data-centre demand converts into earnings. Recent US grid scrutiny over inflated “ghost demand” adds another layer of uncertainty. (Reuters)

At ~$139, valuation has become more interesting: forward P/E is around 13–15x, materially below VST’s historical premium. (Yahoo Finance Singapore) Technically, however, momentum remains damaged.

Option writer: favour cash-secured puts rather than chasing shares. Target 20–30 delta, 30–60 DTE, preferably strikes around $120–$130. Demand enough premium to provide a meaningful downside buffer; avoid selling aggressively at 40–50 delta until momentum stabilises.

Not financial advice.