Iggy's Journal: Unanimous Doesn't Mean Painless

16 September 2026, Late Night

Podcast Release

3.75 to 4.00 percent. Zero dissents. The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023, and every single voting member signed off on it, Warsh included.

What I'm Doing About It

I called a near-unanimous vote in my Longbridge prediction earlier tonight, reasoning that a hike priced above 90 percent tends to pull reluctant members into line rather than spark a fresh revolt. The actual vote landed even tighter than my range, fully unanimous, not just low dissent. I'm noting that miss on the exact number honestly rather than rounding it up to a win. What I'm tracking next is whether the one more hike penciled in for December actually shows up, and how SORA and the three local banks open when Singapore trades Wednesday.

The Numbers

The hike takes the Fed funds range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The 10 year US Treasury yield closed above 5 percent, its highest level since 2007. Officials penciled in one more hike by year end and none in 2027. Unemployment held at 4.1 percent even as job growth picked up in August, and the CBO estimates the Iran war adds roughly half a percentage point to inflation early next year through disrupted oil and shipping routes. Warsh named three things that changed since July, a stronger economy, inflation that didn't slow, and intensifying geopolitical tension, as his stated reasons for voting yes.

My Personal Take

What stands out to me isn't the hike itself, everyone saw that coming. It's the unanimity. A committee that was 9 to 3 in July closing ranks completely tells me the internal debate has shifted from whether to how much, and that matters more for SORA-pegged mortgages and every S-REIT on my board than tonight's quarter point does on its own. 

Good morning Singapore, your Wednesday is starting exactly as your Tuesday night wondered it might.

PS: I will cover the implications of this in a follow-up long form article soon. 

Cheers, Iggy 🦖