Iggy's Journal: The Fed Hiked. Singapore Hasn't Felt It Yet.

18 September 2026, Afternoon

Podcast Release

Everyone's reading this week's Fed hike as a US story. It isn't, not entirely. The part that actually matters to you sits three steps downstream, in the way SORA tracks global funding costs with a lag. The pressure from a 10 year Treasury yield above 5 percent for the first time since 2007 hasn't even fully reached Singapore's shores yet.

The Numbers

UOB Kay Hian downgraded DBS to Sell this week on the back of the oil shock story. The rating is the headline, the balance sheet underneath it is more complicated. DBS's net interest margin eased to 1.87 percent from 1.89 percent, a small move in the wrong direction. But NPL stayed flat at 1 percent and CET1 held at 16.6 percent. That combination reads as margin drift, not a capital problem and not a credit problem. Those are different risks, and only one of them is what a Sell rating usually implies.

My Personal Take

If you're holding DBS in a dividend portfolio, or you're watching REIT refinancing costs from the sidelines, the instinct is to react to the rating. I'd rather watch the chain. A margin easing eight basis points while asset quality and capital both hold steady is not the same story as a bank whose fundamentals are cracking, and conflating the two is how a downgrade headline does more work on your portfolio than the actual numbers justify. Full walk-through of how the Fed hike, the bond market, and this rating actually connect is in today's episode.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/hNM4iC60j9s

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/a-fed-hike-a-war-and-a-bond-yield

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Cheers, Iggy 🦖