Iggy's Journal: The Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan Are All Raising Rates. The UK, India, and China Are Not. Here's What That Means for Your CPF and SRS.

23 September 2026, Morning

Podcast

Everyone assumed hiking banks are the hawks and holding banks are the doves. That's the wrong frame entirely, and it took me a minute to see it too.

The Numbers

The BOJ hiked to 1.25% even though Japan carries one of the most indebted governments in the world, while China held for a sixteenth straight month despite industrial production actually strengthening. The real split isn't hawkish versus dovish. It's whose demand needs restraining versus whose credit demand is too weak to justify tightening at all. MAS doesn't set a policy rate the way the Fed or ECB does, but SORA mortgages, T-bill yields, and fixed deposit renewals all move with this global tug of war anyway, and UK 30-year gilt yields sitting near 5.7 to 5.9 percent this week show just how far that pressure is reaching.

My Personal Take

Your CPF Special Account keeps its government-guaranteed four percent floor no matter what any of these central banks decide this month, that part isn't moving. What's moving is what your surplus cash outside CPF competes against. If your next T-bill or fixed deposit comes up for renewal soon, the question I'd actually be asking isn't whether the new rate looks better or worse than last time. It's whether the reason behind that repricing is something likely to persist for a while, or something likely to pass in a quarter or two. That distinction is the whole episode.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/nCfThkQ3MPU

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/the-fed-the-ecb-and-the-bank-of-japan

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.