Well, today was a weird day for macro data.

PMI came in at the HIGHEST level since…2022. Expectations were 53 and we came in at 57.

What does that mean? Well, people are spending, they have jobs, companies are investing…everything good for a functioning economy.

But…it means inflation has the *potential* to be more structural than just energy driven.

We got some good headlines on Iran willing to negotiate which eased some of the pain, but once that PMI data hit, stocks flipped red and bond yields went nuclear. The 10-yr yield went to a 20-year high at 5.085%.

What makes this concerning is that a rate hike was supposed to calm down inflation expectations and hopefully bond yields but this PMI data just showed the economy is doing great which could mean the Fed hikes regardless of oil coming down, which it has over the past 2 days.

We just might be living in an economy where the cost of capital is going up and ironically to beat inflation, you may have to buy stocks which could send the market higher in a world of a screaming bond market that is demanding higher yields. The opposite is also true, if yields truly get to a level where they are competitive, the AI capex story would just be fighting the Fed and no one knows if fighting a hiking cycle is going to be an easy fight to win.

Source: amit