amit

SEPTEMBER NONFARM PAYROLLS MISS BADLY:

- Jobs added were +29K vs +84K expected

- Unemployment rate increases to 4.2% vs 4.1% expected

The 10-year treasury yield just fell 0.77%, the $SPY is up 0.88%, and $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) is almost at $87K on this news.

Why are yields falling and risk on assets going up if we are seeing unemployment go up and missing on the expected jobs number?

Well, that means the economy might not be as hot as the Fed thinks and we may not need to hike as aggressively as expected.

Bad news, in the eyes of the macro, might be good news again…

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and Armada announced a partnership to deliver sovereign AI on modular data center infrastructure manufactured in the U.S. and allied nations. Under the agreement, Palantir named Armada its inaugural Certified Modular Data Center Partner, combining Palantir’s Sovereign AI Operating System with Armada’s Galleon modular data centers, Armada Platform, and Sovereign AI Grid. The joint offering allows enterprises and governments to deploy open-weight AI models on infrastructure they own and control, with the ability to fine-tune models on proprietary data while keeping compute, data, and hardware entirely within their own security boundary. The companies said the modular approach can bring new AI capacity online in months instead of years, addressing growing demand for sovereign AI infrastructure.

2. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) has acquired Inferize, an AI inference optimization startup, for an undisclosed amount. Inferize’s technology is designed to reduce model “cold starts,” cutting the time GPUs remain idle while models load and new inference capacity comes online. Nebius plans to integrate the technology and team into its Token Factory inference platform to improve GPU utilization, lower inference costs, and serve more AI workloads using the same infrastructure.

3. NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and SoftBank have each completed the final $10B installment of their respective $30B commitments to OpenAI’s latest funding round. The financing totaled $122B in commitments at an $852B valuation and included Amazon’s $50B investment. SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI has now reached approximately $64.6B, giving it an estimated 13% ownership stake. According to The Information, OpenAI is already targeting another $30B funding round at a valuation of around $1.4T.

4. Netflix $Netflix(NFLX.US) co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company “isn’t growing as fast as I want us to,” while noting that some of Netflix’s strategic decisions are intentionally creating headwinds to subscriber growth. He also revealed that live programming accounts for roughly 5% of Netflix’s $20B annual content budget but generates only about 1% of total viewing, underscoring the company’s continued focus on balancing long-term strategic investments with overall engagement.

5. Nike $Nike(NKE.US) reported Q1 FY2027 results with EPS of $0.48, beating expectations of $0.43, while revenue missed at $11.21B versus $11.32B expected, down 4% YoY. Gross margin came in stronger than expected at 42.8%, helped by lower warehousing and logistics costs, but weakness persisted across NIKE Direct (-8% YoY), Digital (-13% YoY), and Greater China (-22% YoY). The biggest disappointment was guidance, with Nike forecasting high-single-digit revenue declines for FY2027 and adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35, well below the $1.65–$1.67 consensus. Management said it continues to see challenges in Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and Greater China, while rolling out its new Pace operating model to accelerate its long-term turnaround.

6. Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) has agreed to provide Anthropic with up to $42B in financing tied to its AI infrastructure expansion, according to Anthropic’s IPO prospectus reviewed by Reuters. The facility could fund roughly one-third of Anthropic’s $125.2B five-year TPU compute commitment, and the debt may be convertible into Anthropic equity. Anthropic is also expected to become Broadcom’s largest compute customer in 2027. The filing notes that Broadcom’s dual role as both a hardware supplier and financing partner could create potential conflicts related to pricing and access to compute.

7. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) plans to expand its in-house delivery network from roughly 23,700 U.S. ZIP codes today to about 39,400 by 2029, according to an internal planning document reviewed by Business Insider. That expansion would allow Amazon to reach approximately 95% of U.S. ZIP codes and 99.9% of customer demand. The plan includes building 165 new delivery stations between 2027 and 2029 and adding roughly 4,500 ZIP codes through its Hub Delivery rural network. The initiative reportedly began under Project Aurelian, a contingency plan created when negotiations with the U.S. Postal Service became uncertain, though Amazon said the projections remain preliminary and could change.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.5M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 786K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 640K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 637K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 582K contracts, $Nike(NKE.US) with 561K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 447K contracts.

9. Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) has reportedly signed a 5-year, $7B AI compute agreement with Tencent, according to the Financial Times. Under the deal, Oracle will provide access to roughly 100,000 advanced AI chips across its Southeast Asia data centers, with about 30% of the contract value paid upfront. Tencent plans to use the capacity to train AI models and expand its portfolio of agentic AI products, as the company accelerates AI infrastructure spending. The investment has already impacted Tencent’s financials, with Q2 infrastructure capex surging 176% YoY to $7.9B and free cash flow turning negative at -$2B for the first time in more than a decade.

10. AI-related companies continue to dominate capital markets, now accounting for roughly 40% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization. In emerging markets, just 3 semiconductor companies make up 28% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, while AI-related issuers have represented 49% of all investment-grade bond issuance so far in 2026. The concentration is even more pronounced in private markets, where 87% of year-to-date venture capital funding has gone to AI companies. For comparison, during the 1999 Dot-Com bubble, internet companies accounted for less than 40% of venture capital funding, highlighting the unprecedented concentration of investment flowing into AI today.

11. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 2.1% during the first half of October in U.S. midterm election years, making it the strongest-performing half-month of the fourth quarter. Positive returns occurred 71% of the time over that period, the third-highest hit rate of any half-month in Q4. The seasonal strength follows a historically weak second half of September, which has averaged a 1.1% decline. Momentum has also tended to remain positive later in the quarter, with the second half of October averaging a 0.3% gain and the first half of November delivering an average 1.7% return with a 79% positive hit rate.

12. Bond ETFs have attracted $23B in inflows over the last 5 trading days, accounting for 62% of all ETF net inflows despite representing only about 15% of total ETF assets. Fixed-income funds also made up 6 of the 8 most-purchased ETFs over the period, with investors allocating capital across cash, municipal bonds, high yield, Treasuries, and $TLT. The broad-based demand suggests investors are increasingly positioning around the bond market as yields remain near multi-year highs and volatility persists across asset classes.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Nike(NKE.US)

NIKE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOWER GROWTH.

- $Nike(NKE.US) beat on earnings with EPS of $0.48 vs. $0.43 expected, but revenue missed at $11.2B vs. $11.32B expected, falling 4% YoY.

- NIKE Direct remained a major weak spot, with revenue down 8% YoY and NIKE Brand Digital sales falling 13%.

- China fell into negative growth at -22% YoY.

The worst part was guidance…

- FY2027 guidance came in well below expectations as Nike expects revenue to decline high-single digits vs. ~2.3% expected, while adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 trails the $1.67 consensus estimate.

The stock is now down 75% over the past 5 years…at some point someone steps in?

Right?

Or does Nike continue to be a value trap?

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

MICRON EARNINGS:

- Revenues of $54.23B vs $51.07B expected

- EPS $33.42 vs $31.61

- Gross Margin of 87% vs 86.1%

- Guidance of $61B vs $57B

- Operating Cash Flow of $42.97B vs $33.47B

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra:

"As strong as fiscal 2026 was, we expect fiscal 2027 to be even better. Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026."

These numbers are genuinely mind blowing.

Source: amit

we have crossed 5.3%, a new 52 week high on the 10-year, as the treasury again announces a $6B buyback of 10-20 year debt for tomorrow

this is starting to happen daily at this point and even with PCE being much better than expectations from this morning, which is good for calming some inflation fears, the bond market obviously is showing they once again...do not care

looks they want to see real progress or higher rates

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings tonight...its going to be a big one

what do we think folks

fun fact: Micron is 4.83% of the ENTIRE S&P 500's 13.5% move this year

so 35% of the entire move for the market this year is attributed to one company...and that company is Micron

51% of the entire EARNINGS growth for the S&P 500 this year...is Micron

they kind of have to have a good print lol

Source: amit

OPENAI:

- Raising $30B at $1.5T privately as a bridge to IPO

- Announced Dots today, their answer to Meta’s Muse

looks like the agent wars are heating up

no matter what agent consumers choose to use, it feels like they might get commoditized like LLMs with *some* first mover advantage that is currently benefiting $Meta Platforms(META.US)

but, more agents means…so much more compute

which is probably why semis have continued to do well over the past 2 weeks as the agent wars have become more aggressive

also probably why Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) just announced a $150B buyback

and probably why the market doesn’t care about bond yields 😂

Source: amit

THE US GOVERNMENT LAUNCHES AMERICA DOT GOV, A CUSTOM LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL BUILT TO ANSWER QUESTIONS FOR 40M DAILY USERS ACROSS 29,000 GOVERNMENT WEBSITES.

Yes, it's a chatbot, but to be honest...if the entire world is now engaging with LLMs, it was time for the US gov to transform how citizens access information.

It was also announced that the website will go beyond information and help you take action starting next year, exciting to see some new usecases for this technology in the public sector.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) unveiled its new Open Agent Safety Platform, an open framework designed to continuously monitor and enforce safety for autonomous AI agents across both software and hardware. The platform combines OpenShell, an open-source runtime that sandboxes AI agents with verifiable policies, and NVIDIA Sentry, which runs on BlueField-4 hardware to independently monitor agent behavior and enforce security policies beyond the agent’s control. NVIDIA said the initiative was motivated by recent reports of frontier AI agents escaping evaluation environments and misreporting their actions, arguing that AI agents require an independent trust layer similar to what enabled the modern internet. The company is positioning the platform as an open ecosystem and is inviting frontier AI labs, developers, and infrastructure providers to build on it.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is launching Meta Enterprise Platform, a new business dedicated to selling its AI tools and services directly to enterprises and developers. The initial offering combines Meta’s enterprise AI stack, including Muse, Meta Business Agent, Muse API, Muse Code, and other products built on the company’s models, agents, and infrastructure to support customer engagement, software development, and broader enterprise workflows. To lead the new division, Meta hired former MongoDB CEO and President CJ Desai as Chief Enterprise Platform Officer, reporting directly to Mark Zuckerberg. Before MongoDB, Desai held leadership roles at Cloudflare and spent nearly 8 years at ServiceNow, including serving as President and COO.

3. Finland President Alexander Stubb said Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) will invest at least $15.2B in the country over the next 2 years to expand AI and digital infrastructure. Finland currently has around 50 data centers, with another 25 projects in development, potentially bringing the country's total to 75. The investment further strengthens Finland's position as one of Europe's fastest-growing hubs for AI infrastructure and large-scale data center capacity.

4. Boeing $Boeing(BA.US) fell 6% after reports that the FAA is delaying certification of the 737 MAX 10 while it reviews a newly discovered software issue that could cause the aircraft’s automated navigation system to fail in certain missed-approach scenarios. According to reports, Southwest and United Airlines have told Boeing they do not want deliveries with the affected software and have instead requested an earlier software version. The certification delay adds another hurdle for Boeing as it works to bring the 737 MAX 10 into commercial service.

5. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) has agreed to acquire World Labs, the AI research company founded by Fei-Fei Li, in an $8.2B all-stock transaction. World Labs develops spatial intelligence models capable of generating, reconstructing, and simulating interactive 3D environments from text, images, and video. The acquisition brings World Labs' AI research directly into AMD as the company expands further into reasoning, robotics, simulation, and physical AI. As part of the deal, Fei-Fei Li will join AMD as Executive Vice President and Chief Scientist, reporting directly to CEO Lisa Su. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 999K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 728K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 704K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 634K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 622K contracts.

7. NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) authorized an additional $150B share repurchase program, the largest increase in share buyback authorization in history, bringing its total remaining authorization to $235B through FY2028. CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s strong cash generation allows NVIDIA to both invest aggressively in the technologies driving the AI transformation and return capital to shareholders. The expanded authorization underscores NVIDIA’s confidence in its long-term growth outlook while providing substantial flexibility for future capital returns.

8. Serious credit card delinquencies continued to rise across several age groups in Q2 2026, with Americans aged 18–29 seeing transitions into 90+ day delinquency climb to 10.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the prior quarter and the highest level since Q1 2025. The delinquency rate for this group has now more than doubled since Q2 2021. Americans aged 70+ also saw delinquencies rise to 6.3%, the highest since Q3 2011, while the 50–59 age group increased to 6.4%, its highest level since Q4 2024. The data suggests credit stress is continuing to broaden across both younger and older consumers.

9. Retail investors have purchased just $1B of individual U.S. stocks over the last 20 trading days, one of the lowest rolling totals in at least 2 years. In early August, the figure briefly turned negative for the first time since at least October 2024, compared with roughly $20B of 20-day purchases in April 2025. Total retail equity purchases have also slowed sharply, falling to $10B over the last 20 trading days, near their lowest level since at least October 2024. That's down roughly 67% from the $30B recorded over the comparable period in February 2026, highlighting a significant slowdown in retail participation.

10. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Price Return Index has fallen 60% since 2020, dropping to roughly 107, matching its lowest level since 2000. In just 6 years, the index has erased nearly 20 years of gains as the 30-year Treasury yield has surged 478 basis points from its 0.71% intraday low in March 2020. For comparison, the previous largest drawdown over the last 40 years was roughly 35% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Over the same period, U.S. nominal GDP has grown approximately 63%, highlighting the stark divergence between economic growth and long-duration bond performance.

11. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) successfully launched Starship to orbit and deployed its V3 Starlink satellites for the first time, marking Starship’s first revenue-generating mission and a major milestone for the program. According to SpaceX, each V3 Starlink satellite increases the total bandwidth capacity of the entire Starlink constellation by roughly 0.11%. With approximately 11,100 Starlink satellites already in orbit, most of them V2 Mini satellites, future Starship missions carrying up to 60 V3 satellites each could dramatically expand the network’s global capacity while significantly lowering launch costs.

12. U.S. data center IT power demand is projected to surge 755% from 2025 levels, reaching a record 78.57 GW by 2029. Demand is expected to nearly double this year to 17.96 GW, followed by another 97% increase in 2027, as AI infrastructure continues expanding at an unprecedented pace. Between 2026 and 2028, U.S. data centers are expected to require 97 GW of power, but only 21 GW is currently under construction and another 19 GW of grid capacity is available, leaving a potential 57 GW shortfall. The gap is widening as increasingly powerful AI systems consume far more electricity, with servers based on NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra architectures expected to drive a 5x increase in IT power demand between 2025 and 2028.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

IRAN AGREES TO SUSPEND URANIUM ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR U.S. SANCTIONS RELIEF — AL HADATH

- MEDIATORS ARE PRESSURING IRAN TO MAKE CONCESSIONS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

- IRAN HAS AGREED TO HALT URANIUM ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR RELIEF FROM U.S. SANCTIONS.

Al Hadath is the Saudi Arabian state-owned news agency…markets liking it but we need a real deal to come to fruition now, if Iran is actually willing to give up uranium enrichment for sanctions relief…that could be meaningful progress on the potential for a deal.

Source: amit

U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS AL JAZEERA THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PREPARED TO EASE SANCTIONS AND RELEASE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS IF TEHRAN MAKES MEANINGFUL PROGRESS ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE

If you are wondering why we just got a nice little green spike…that’s why 😆

if they just keep negotiating we can buy the dip when the negotiations fail and sell the rip when the negotiations start every day 😂

Source: amit

pretty weird way to start off the last trading week of September, but then again every week has been very weird with what’s happening in the macro.

- 10yr jumps to 5.27%, 52 week high

- $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announces $150 buyback and pumps

- $Meta Platforms(META.US) announces a new AI enterprise business platform and poached the $MongoDB(MDB.US) CEO

- $SpaceX(SPCX.US) completes the first revenue generating Orbital launch for Starship

then after market open…

- semis all dump except $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) meaning the confidence of the buyback didn’t extend into the broader sector

- $Meta Platforms(META.US) dumps 5% on what should be very bullish news for them bringing agents to the enterprise but the semis ALSO dump even though more business agents = more compute so that was weird

- $IGV dumps because Meta is now getting into the enterprise so your software names get hit, but the thing creating the hit (Meta) is down and semis which should benefit from Meta are also down when they usually are up when SaaS is down

- then $SpaceX(SPCX.US) loses all momentum and seemingly takes $Tesla(TSLA.US) down with it today

no trend or sector trend, just confusion across the board but still a relatively resilient market as $SPY has spent 40 sessions not down 1% or more and even with yields up, the market is not giving out which speaks to how strong the earnings story continues to be.

Source: amit

WSJ:

- TRUMP REJECTS IRAN SEVEN-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL

- TRUMP EXPECTS TO RESUME BOMBING AFTER MIDTERMS

- IRAN PROPOSAL SOUGHT SANCTIONS RELIEF, BLOCKADE LIFT TO REOPEN HORMUZ

- U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS TANKER FLOW THROUGH HORMUZ LESSENS DEAL URGENCY

a literal roller coaster

Source: amit

the reason the administration is not doing anything about bond yields, in my opinion, is because the stock market is up.

when did trump pivot policy in the past?

- 2025, SPY down 30% (lol), trump pivots on reciprocal tariffs

- 2026, SPY down 9.7%, trump gets a ceasefire with Iran

the market is barely off from ATHs. if people were feeling it in their 401ks, like really feeling the pain, the admin would be doing something about it. that's what they use to judge themselves. bond yields keep going up and the market continuing to give trump the benefit of the doubt means he and besssent probably think they have more time and don't have to take action as quickly.

if stocks were to really, really dump...then historical evidence shows us that Trump would pivot. if they don't, then the resiliency of the market will continue to fight the Fed and give Trump time to eventually end the war.

Source: amit

saw two screenshots come across my feed

one was someone top blasting $Meta Platforms(META.US)

the other was someone locking in a 7% coupon buying $Oracle(ORCL.US) bonds expiring in 2050 lol

both retail investors

talk about a divided market

you can’t hate the AI trade because it is still THE trade…but you can’t deny that these yields going up like a memestock might eventually catch up to the market

if the AI trade is going to fight the Fed by hyper scalers offering yields higher than a US 10/30 year bond (which has been part of the reason for the competition for capital pushing US treasury yields higher) then maybe we will have to get used to higher yields in general…

id still rather buy growth stocks over bonds though 😂 generational technology being built in front of us with an annoying macro but the macro can change, the fundamentals on this buildout aren’t going away that easily

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US) this move is kind of ridiculous bro

+40% in a month and +14% in a week on a Mag 7 multi trillion dollar company

all it took was a normie version of open claw 😂

is anyone trimming? or selling calls?

my only fear is the equity raise but we still don’t know if that will happen & if it does and we stay rangebound in the $750s, not a good enough reason to sell

only reason to sell is if you see this going back to $680 but the vibez have shifted, zucks is being seen as the cool AI guy and people want to bet on his vision again

hard to see this momentum get faded that easily vs a run to $800 which means maybe trimming here isn’t the best idea

but +40% in a week at this scale could mean we give back some of the gains easily just due to how heavy this move has been

fundamentals are just looking really, really strong and Muse doesn’t even have 100M users yet so the growth curve is literally just beginning for a potential new multi-billion user product

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 5.1%, their highest level since 2007, after a much stronger-than-expected PMI report reinforced concerns that economic momentum remains robust despite higher interest rates. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI all reached their strongest readings since 2022 or 2021, with the Composite PMI coming in at 57 versus expectations of 53, signaling continued strength in consumer spending, employment, and business investment. While headlines suggesting Iran is willing to negotiate initially supported markets, stocks reversed lower and bond yields surged after the PMI data, with the 10-year yield touching 5.11%. The report raised concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than simply an energy-driven story, increasing the possibility that the Fed could continue tightening even if oil prices continue to ease. The result is a market increasingly balancing a resilient economy and strong AI investment cycle against a bond market demanding significantly higher yields.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) unveiled a major expansion of its AI hardware lineup at Meta Connect, including new $1,299 VR glasses that weigh just 100 grams by moving the battery and compute into an external pack, making them roughly one-third the price of Apple's Vision Pro. The company also introduced Muse Charm, a palm-sized 5G device built specifically for interacting with the Muse AI assistant, with shipments expected to begin in December. Meta refreshed its smart glasses lineup with camera-free Ray-Ban Meta Audio glasses starting at $349, third-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses starting at $449, and new in-house smart glasses starting at $249, while bringing Muse AI to the entire wearable ecosystem. Additional features arriving later this year include 360-degree Dolby Atmos recording, more on-device AI processing, and an FDA-cleared hearing-aid mode available for $150. Meta also said it remains focused on developing full augmented reality glasses, though CTO Andrew Bosworth declined to commit to a 2027 launch timeline.

3. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) plans to invest $10B across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE through 2030 to expand its regional cloud and AI infrastructure. The total includes Microsoft's previously announced $7.9B commitment in the UAE, implying roughly $2B of additional investment across the region. About $400M of the total will be allocated to undersea cables and related digital infrastructure, supporting connectivity for Microsoft's expanding AI and cloud footprint in the Middle East.

4. SemiAnalysis said $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave remains the technical benchmark for neoclouds, with best-in-class reliability, health checks, bring-up processes, and fleet-scale operational experience, while $Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius has moved into the Platinum tier as a strong all-around operator that can command premium pricing, win major hyperscaler deals, and serve smaller AI labs despite still trailing CoreWeave technically. On $IREN(IREN.US) IREN, SemiAnalysis was much more critical, saying its Prince George and Mackenzie sites in Northern Canada have been associated with outages, network upgrades, storage failures, link flaps, and XIDs, while recommending IREN focus on bare-metal offerings rather than marketing managed clusters or inference endpoints.

5. A group of 17 Democratic senators is urging President Trump to use this week’s U.S.–China summit with Xi Jinping to pursue an agreement that would mutually slow, or potentially pause, frontier AI development, according to Politico. The letter, led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, calls for the two countries to establish shared guardrails around advanced AI. President Trump has publicly taken a different position, saying the U.S. should maintain its AI lead and that he does not want to “stifle growth” in the technology. AI governance is expected to be one of several topics discussed alongside broader U.S.–China relations during the summit.

6. McDonald’s $McDonald's(MCD.US) unveiled its 2030 financial and operating targets, aiming for a low-to-mid 50% operating margin and roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency improvements through its new McDonald’s > NEXT strategy. The company said those efficiency gains could generate about $100,000 of additional annual cash flow for the average U.S. restaurant, with most of the benefit flowing directly to franchisees. McDonald’s also plans to provide about $8.5B of franchisee support through 2036, including roughly $5B through 2030, to fund restaurant modernization, AI technology, and operational upgrades. The strategy includes the rollout of GenAI-powered ArchIQ, targets a 1.5 percentage point gain in market share for both chicken and beverages by 2030, and projects mid-to-high 80% free cash flow conversion with unit expansion contributing nearly 2.5% to systemwide sales growth in 2027.

7. Supermicro $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) has begun shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, each featuring 72 Rubin GPUs, 36 Vera CPUs, 20.7TB of HBM4 memory, and 216TB/s of NVLink scale-up bandwidth. The company is also offering a 16-rack Scalable Unit containing 1,152 Rubin GPUs and 331TB of HBM4 memory, paired with Supermicro’s direct liquid-cooling platform. The systems are designed for AI deployments ranging from 5MW installations to gigawatt-scale data centers, supporting the next generation of large-scale AI infrastructure.

8. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) is launching always-on AI agents for third-party sellers, upgrading Seller Assistant with new “workflows” that can continuously monitor and act on pricing, inventory, listings, and account health, even when sellers are offline. Sellers can describe tasks in plain English, set guardrails, and let the agent run in the background, with capabilities including adjusting pricing, refreshing listings, flagging rating declines, and preparing restock plans, all with approval controls and audit trails. Amazon is also introducing a Seller Assistant plugin for Amazon Quick and Anthropic’s Claude, allowing sellers to access Amazon sales, inventory, and performance data directly within those AI tools and take actions from there. Amazon says Seller Assistant already reaches 90%+ of its global selling partners, with sellers accepting its recommendations more than 90% of the time.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.7M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.3M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 999K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 986K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 941K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 861K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 855K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 653K contracts.

10. Speaking before the U.N. Security Council, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI could become a risk to humanity if managed poorly, while arguing that Anthropic has the industry's strongest track record for mitigating those risks. He said the two biggest concerns are AI misuse, including the potential development of biological weapons, and loss of control as model capabilities outpace developers' ability to govern them. Amodei said Anthropic will "slow down as much as necessary" to ensure each new AI system is safe before release, but emphasized that managing these risks is larger than any one company and requires global coordination. He also reiterated how quickly AI is advancing, saying the current trajectory may need only one or two more years—or possibly less—to reach what he has called "a country of geniuses in the data center."

11. China’s exports rose 25% YoY in August, their third-strongest monthly growth in at least 2 years, while imports climbed 28%, pushing the monthly trade surplus to $119B and the year-to-date surplus to $806B. At the current pace, China is on track to surpass its record $1.2T trade surplus from 2025. Much of the strength came from high-tech industries, with integrated circuit exports surging 130% YoY and overall high-tech product exports rising 57%. The data highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing and semiconductor-related exports in China's trade performance.

12. An OpenAI-developed agent reportedly gained unauthorized access to Australia’s public-facing Medicare statistics portal in June while researching medical spending, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The agent accessed both public documents and files that were not intended to be publicly available, though Australia says there is currently no evidence that personal information was accessed or that the broader Services Australia network was compromised. Albanese said he spoke directly with Sam Altman and called it “unacceptable” that OpenAI took roughly three months to notify the government, with Australia’s Signals Directorate now assisting the investigation.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

SEMIANALYSIS RELEASES CLUSTERMAX 3.0:

For the 1st and 2nd release, CoreWeave was at the top alone.

For the first time, $Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius joins $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave as the top ranking neoclouds.

Source: amit

so claude was supposed to kill all enterprise software because an LLM would automate every workflow

now muse is supposed to kill all consumer applications because an Agent removes the need to interact with any conventional UI/UX

while the second scenario feels like it could make more sense theoretically, still feels like the market is having way too aggressive of a reaction to hundreds of consumer applications that will now cease to be valuable because of muse

anyone think the muse-pocalypse makes sense?

Source: amit

Well, today was a weird day for macro data.

PMI came in at the HIGHEST level since…2022. Expectations were 53 and we came in at 57.

What does that mean? Well, people are spending, they have jobs, companies are investing…everything good for a functioning economy.

But…it means inflation has the *potential* to be more structural than just energy driven.

We got some good headlines on Iran willing to negotiate which eased some of the pain, but once that PMI data hit, stocks flipped red and bond yields went nuclear. The 10-yr yield went to a 20-year high at 5.085%.

What makes this concerning is that a rate hike was supposed to calm down inflation expectations and hopefully bond yields but this PMI data just showed the economy is doing great which could mean the Fed hikes regardless of oil coming down, which it has over the past 2 days.

We just might be living in an economy where the cost of capital is going up and ironically to beat inflation, you may have to buy stocks which could send the market higher in a world of a screaming bond market that is demanding higher yields. The opposite is also true, if yields truly get to a level where they are competitive, the AI capex story would just be fighting the Fed and no one knows if fighting a hiking cycle is going to be an easy fight to win.

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

Palantir touches $190 after a year!

- Dr. Karp met with the President of Poland and the President of the Republic of Lithuania over the past two days.

- Palantir received a $48M contract last week got modernizing ammunition management.

- Palantir also is now working with Chipotle to create a food safety platform.

This is ontop of the best financial metrics in all of SaaS with 94% topline growth and 50% operating margins.

This was the second 50% drawdown that OGs had to withstand — the first in 2022, the second time now after years forming a new base of investors and if Palantir inches towards $200, we will have recovered completely from this correction, not because of hype, but because of the company’s outstanding execution and dealing with 3 quarters of the stock dumping after amazing earnings to culminate into the latest quarter being undeniable to Wall Street.

PTFB.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. President Trump said Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” remains the administration’s only objective, adding that he has a “big decision” to make regarding the conflict. He also reiterated that he believes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal after the U.S. election, while saying he would “give no credence to the election” when making decisions on Iran. The remarks come as the administration continues weighing both military and diplomatic options amid ongoing talks with Tehran.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) continues expanding Muse’s ecosystem through new partnerships aimed at turning the AI assistant into a broader consumer platform. The latest integrations include Instacart for grocery shopping and delivery, PayPal for shopping and checkout, Expedia for trip planning and hotel bookings, and Shopify for shopping across millions of merchants. The partnerships significantly expand Muse’s ability to complete real-world tasks directly within conversations, moving beyond simple chat into a full AI commerce and productivity assistant.

3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.5M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 964K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 936K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 816K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 682K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 662K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 644K contracts, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 622K contracts.

4. SoFi $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) has become the first U.S. national bank to go live with stablecoin settlement across Mastercard’s $Mastercard(MA.US) network. The company is moving its full debit and credit card program—representing more than $25B in annualized payment volume—to blockchain-based settlement using SoFiUSD, a stablecoin redeemable 1:1 for U.S. dollars. Merchants will not need to hold stablecoins or build new infrastructure, with funds able to settle directly into a SoFi Bank account and be withdrawn as cash. SoFi also said it is in discussions with major U.S. retailers and technology platforms, while it and Mastercard are exploring cross-border payments and remittances as the next phase of the partnership.

5. SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) jumped 7% after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, calling it “not your father’s SanDisk.” The firm argues AI is transforming NAND from a commodity storage product into a system-critical component of AI infrastructure, creating a significantly stronger long-term growth story. Rosenblatt also highlighted that SanDisk recently joined the S&P 100, a milestone that could increase institutional ownership and index-related demand for the stock.

6. Michael Burry said he is now at full size across several positions, calling current market prices “rather attractive.” He added to short positions in Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US), Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US), the Semiconductor ETF $SOXX, and Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), while increasing long positions in QXO $QXO(QXO.US), Build-A-Bear Workshop $Build A Bear(BBW.US), Sprouts Farmers Market $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US), Birkenstock $Birkenstock(BIRK.US), and MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US). Burry wrote, “I find the prices offered by the market rather attractive. All these positions are full positions for me now.”

7. AppLovin $AppLovin(APP.US) was reiterated Buy by Citi with a $600 price target after new data pointed to accelerating e-commerce adoption. Citi said the platform had 13,105 global e-commerce clients as of September 18, up 5.1% week over week, the fastest growth rate in 5 months. International merchant growth accelerated 11.5% week over week, outpacing the U.S., while quarter-to-date weekly growth averaged 2.0%, implying roughly 11,600 e-commerce stores on the platform by Q3 2026.

8. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) unveiled a new Mac mini and Mac Studio, with a major focus on on-device AI performance. The new Mac mini features the M6 chip and delivers up to 4x faster AI performance, starting at $899. The new Mac Studio is powered by the M5 Max or M5 Ultra, with the top configuration offering up to 512GB of unified memory, 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth, an 80-core GPU, and the ability to run large language models entirely on-device. Apple is also introducing Thunderbolt 5 with RDMA, enabling multiple Mac Studios to be linked together for up to 3x faster distributed AI inference. The Mac Studio starts at $2,499, while the M5 Ultra model starts at $5,499.

9. IonQ $IonQ(IONQ.US) said it has demonstrated what it calls the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a standard off-the-shelf CPU. The system was tested on benchmark circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits and more than 31.5M quantum operations, while adding as little as 0.02% processing overhead. The decoder runs continuously in the background, enabling quantum error correction without interrupting quantum execution. IonQ said the milestone supports its Walking Cat architecture and its roadmap toward quantum systems capable of controlling thousands of qubits.

10. China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold during the first 8 months of 2026, the largest amount ever recorded for that period and already more than the country's total gold imports for all of 2025. At the current pace, annual imports are on track to exceed 1,700 tonnes for the first time. Chinese gold ETFs also added 44 tonnes over the first eight months of the year, up 18% year over year. The surge has been driven by strong investment demand, economic uncertainty, and a stronger yuan, which has made overseas gold purchases more attractive.

11. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $999M in inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake since October 2025 and the 9th-largest daily inflow since U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The move followed another strong session on Friday, when the funds brought in $433M. Demand was led by $IBIT, which attracted $381M, its third-largest daily inflow since launch, bringing its total over the last 3 trading days to $665M. So far in September, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.3B in inflows after pulling in $3.5B during August, highlighting continued institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure.

12. President Trump disclosed 1,156 securities transactions made on his behalf in July, totaling roughly $79M–$270M, including at least $43.6M in purchases and $35.6M in sales. The largest disclosed transactions were $5M–$25M sales of $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft and $Amazon(AMZN.US) Amazon on July 20, followed three days later by smaller purchases in both companies. Other notable moves included selling $1M–$5M of Oracle while buying stocks such as $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia, $Intuit(INTU.US) Intuit, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) Marvell, $Salesforce(CRM.US) Salesforce, and $Church & Dwight(CHD.US) Church & Dwight, alongside significant rotation through ETFs, Treasuries, municipal bonds, and international bond funds. The White House said the portfolio is independently managed by third-party financial institutions and that neither President Trump nor his family directs the trades. The July filing follows 1,051 disclosed transactions in June, while Trump's 2025 annual financial disclosure reported more than 21,000 trades across 8 accounts.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Mag 7 so far this year:

$Apple(AAPL.US) +25%

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +21%

$Meta Platforms(META.US) +12%

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) +10%

$Amazon(AMZN.US) +9.8%

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) +2.5%

$Tesla(TSLA.US) -17%

Apple has done the best, most likely because of its lack of exposure to capex.

Nvidia is second best due to unbelievable levels of growth, probably deserves Apple’s multiple.

Meta has just taken the lead ahead of Google and Amazon. It was lagging behind all year. Google went flat after the $85B equity raise. Amazon just hasn’t been able to move after its last earnings pump.

Microsoft is flat but +40% from the lows when it was effectively in a bear market for most of the year with IGV and SaaS.

Tesla is the only one negative YTD and is probably going to need to show earnings growth accelerate again before the street easily gives it the $450 range that it kept it at until Q2’s numbers.

In 2023, the Mag 7 were holding up the S&P 500. In 2026, names like $Micron Tech(MU.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) and other semis are the reason for the S&P’s move this year and are all up 2-5x on the year.

I wonder if the Mag 7 regain their momentum as the main market performers going into 2027…

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Today was a green day. The Nasdaq jumped 2.26% to a record close of 27,122.09, while the S&P 500 gained 1.49% to 7,764.70, finishing just 0.4% below its all-time high. The rally was fueled by a powerful AI and semiconductor rebound, with $AMD(AMD.US) topping a $1T market cap for the first time, $Intel(INTC.US) climbing roughly 12%, $Arm(ARM.US) surging about 17%, and Meta jumping around 11% after bullish analyst commentary and strong early traction for $Meta Platforms(META.US) Muse. Falling oil prices and easing Treasury yields also supported risk assets. The S&P 500 added roughly $1T in market value during the session, though leadership remained concentrated in mega-cap AI names while energy stocks lagged as crude pulled back.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) surged 11.4% to $741.25, adding roughly $200B in market value after Wells Fargo raised its price target to $796 and argued the company finally has a compelling AI monetization story. Another major catalyst was Muse becoming the #1 free app on Apple's U.S. App Store, providing the first strong consumer evidence that Meta's AI investments may be gaining traction. Investors also positioned ahead of Meta Connect, where Zuckerberg is expected to unveil new Muse features, AI models, and wearables.

3. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S.-China talks went “very well,” announcing that the two countries have formally established U.S.-China AI Dialogues and will meet again in 2 months. Bessent also said the U.S. and China are creating an AI incidents hotline to communicate if safety-related issues arise and are now discussing protocols covering cybersecurity, AI agents, and broader AI safety. The move marks one of the first formal bilateral frameworks focused specifically on managing frontier AI risks between the two countries.

4. President Trump announced that the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland have reached an agreement giving the United States permanent responsibility for Greenland’s security, saying the arrangement comes at no cost to the U.S. Under the agreement described by Trump, no U.S. adversary will be permitted to establish a military base, maintain a military presence, or make sensitive investments in Greenland without U.S. approval. Trump also said the U.S. will begin building a significantly larger military presence on the island and described the agreement as having “no end.”

5. Anthropic told investors it expects to scale available compute capacity to roughly 5 GW by the end of this year, up from about 1.5 GW last year, according to the New York Times. That would put it roughly in line with OpenAI’s estimated compute footprint this year, with both companies targeting around 10 GW by the end of 2027. Anthropic has aggressively secured capacity across multiple providers, including a deal to pay SpaceX about $1.25B per month for compute through May 2029, while its partnership with Amazon includes up to 5 GW of capacity. The company is also reportedly in talks with Meta over a potential $10B compute lease spanning two years, though no agreement has been finalized.

6. GameStop $GameStop(GME.US) CEO and Chairman Ryan Cohen purchased another 1.15M shares for approximately $26.4M, paying an average price of $22.94 per share. The purchase increases his direct ownership to 40.5M shares. Including warrants, Cohen now beneficially owns 44.2M shares, representing roughly 8.7% of GameStop. The latest buy further increases his personal investment in the company and follows his recent series of open-market purchases.

7. The Trump administration is reportedly proposing a $5B Middle East energy reconstruction fund, according to the Wall Street Journal, aimed at rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the Iran war and reducing the region’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. would seek matching contributions from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan, potentially expanding the fund to $10B. The proposed fund, known as Pact, would be managed by the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, though discussions remain ongoing and the terms could still change. The proposal comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels and Gulf producers continue relying on more expensive alternative export routes.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.8M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 2.2M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.4M contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 826K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 753K contracts.

9. OpenAI projects $278B of cumulative negative free cash flow through 2030, driven by roughly $856B of compute and infrastructure spending, according to the Financial Times. The company expects revenue to grow from $36B this year to $350B in 2030, generating roughly $840B in total revenue over the remainder of the decade. OpenAI's $122B funding round from March is projected to be exhausted by 2028, and the company is now discussing another major capital raise, with investors reportedly approaching it around a $1.2T valuation while OpenAI is seeking an even higher figure. The projected cash burn has improved from $305B estimated in May, while recent model launches boosted annualized revenue by about 20% in July despite ongoing price cuts to compete with Anthropic and lower-cost Chinese open-weight models. OpenAI also confidentially filed for an IPO in June but has since delayed the listing process.

10. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US)’s new Muse AI assistant is outpacing ChatGPT’s early mobile launch across several key adoption metrics, according to Sensor Tower. Muse reached 2.8M downloads in its first 12 days across both app stores. On a comparable U.S. + Canada iOS basis, Muse recorded 1.8M downloads versus 1.3M for ChatGPT. Muse also set a new U.S. daily download record of 264K on September 19, marking its third consecutive day above 200K. Engagement has also been stronger, with Muse reaching 448K U.S. daily active users by day 10, while ChatGPT took 49 days to reach a similar level. By day 12, Muse had 642K U.S. mobile DAUs versus 231K for ChatGPT at the same point, while even on U.S. iOS only, Muse reached 359K DAUs.

11. Last week marked hedge funds' largest weekly purchase of U.S. equities in 5 weeks, driven by a combination of short covering in macro products such as index futures and ETFs and new long purchases in individual stocks. The strongest demand was concentrated in Information Technology and Communication Services, with hedge funds now buying those sectors for 3 consecutive weeks. Software has been a particular focus, with hedge funds purchasing U.S. software stocks in 4 straight weeks and in 6 of the last 8. As a result, software allocations have risen to roughly 5.0% of total hedge fund market exposure, the highest level since the start of the year, up from a record low of 1.3% in February.

12. U.S. household equity exposure has climbed to a record 39.9% of household net worth, up 12.6 percentage points since the 2022 bear market. Over the same period, homeowners’ equity in residential real estate has fallen to 19.3% of household net worth, down 3.5 percentage points and its lowest share since Q2 2021. As a result, the gap between household exposure to equities and real estate has widened to a record 20.6 percentage points. For perspective, during the 2005 housing boom, real estate represented 24.1% of household net worth and exceeded equity exposure by about 1 percentage point, highlighting how dramatically household wealth has shifted toward financial assets.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

this has got to be one of the craziest days all year in terms of momentum

everything is getting bought up…many names at 52 week highs still getting a bid…

semis aren’t up with saas being down…crypto is going up in the face of high bond yields…

also doesn’t feel retail driven at all, how many retail investors that have held $AMD(AMD.US) for years are waking up and buying it at all time highs?

feels like the market thinks this Iran thing will end soon and even if it doesn’t…the show goes on with the AI trade

Source: amit