amit

Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being.

Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to.

I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when...

- The 10-yr passed 4.7%

- Oil was up 25% in a month

- The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16%

- Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October

- US national gas prices passed $4/gallon again

Any escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy.

The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US.

Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace.

Big earnings this week with $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Visa(V.US) $UPS(UPS.US) $Mastercard(MA.US) and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair.

Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping either. Crude oil has pushed back above $90/barrel for the first time since June and is up 25% over the past month. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%, while jobless claims came in at 187K vs 211K expected, showing a stronger labor market but also raising concerns that inflation pressure could persist. Today was the worst day for the Mag 7 since April 2025 with all 7 stocks erasing $800B of market cap.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) CEO Lisa Su said at the AMD Advancing AI event today that the AI accelerator market could grow to $1.4T by 2030, within a broader compute market expected to reach $2T. She also noted that monthly AI token consumption has surged 158x over the past two years, underscoring how quickly compute demand is scaling. AMD unveiled Helios, its new rack-scale AI system built around the MI450 accelerator, which Su called the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Helios is now in full production, with shipments expected to start at the end of Q3 and ramp through Q4.

3. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) posted a strong Q2, with revenue of $16.1B vs $14.5B expected, up 25% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.22 expected. Adjusted gross margin came in at 41.8% vs 39% expected, up 1,210 bps YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 17.2% vs 10.7% expected. Segment results were strong across the core business, with CCPG revenue up 13% YoY to $8.9B, DCAI revenue up 59% YoY to $6.3B, total Intel Products revenue up 28% YoY to $15.1B, and Intel Foundry revenue up 31% YoY to $5.8B. Management said Q2 marked Intel’s strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, driven by better execution, higher factory yields, improved cycle times, and stronger customer demand.

4. Trump warned that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible if the Houthis resume attacks on commercial shipping. He said the Houthis had acted “responsibly” after previous U.S. strikes, but are now “starting up again” after reportedly firing on two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Trump said the Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and that any further attacks would trigger major military punishment against both Iran and the Houthis.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is committing $1.5B to Amkor $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) through a prepayment tied to a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The funding will help Amkor expand U.S. packaging capacity at its Arizona campus as both companies work on next-generation packaging and test technologies for AI and accelerated computing. The partnership will focus on high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration, which are key for combining multiple chips and components into more powerful systems.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 994K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 940K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 917K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 732K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 706K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 664K contracts, $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) with 560K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 532K contracts.

7. South Korea is moving to tighten rules around leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs beginning July 31. Retail investors will now need about $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from roughly $6,800 previously. The key change is that stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement, making it harder for retail traders to access these leveraged products.

8. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed climbing to 6.58%, putting rates back near their highest level in a year.

9. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Cerebras $Cerebras(CBRS.US) are teaming up on a disaggregated AI inference architecture that divides workloads between both platforms. In the setup, AMD Helios manages prompts and long-context processing, while Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine focuses on ultra-low-latency token generation. The companies say the combined system can deliver up to 5x more tokens per second per watt than Cerebras alone, with initial availability expected through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026.

10. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) cut 10% of roles in its customer service operations as it restructures the division and leans further into AI. The company said fragmented workflows were making it harder to roll out AI at scale, and this marks Uber’s first layoff round specifically tied to AI-driven efficiency.

11. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly turning away satellite operators looking for dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as the company shifts more of its long-term launch strategy toward Starship, per Bloomberg. SpaceX has also stopped taking future Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and has paused production of some expendable Falcon components, though Falcon 9 is still expected to remain active for NASA and Pentagon missions. The risk is timing: if Starship is not commercially ready by 2028, the market could face a major launch-capacity gap, creating a bigger opening for competitors like Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA.

12. Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) new $12B Texas data center financing, tied to a nearly 1GW project, is reportedly being discussed at yields above 7%. That is roughly 40 bps higher than Meta’s $27B Hyperion financing from just nine months ago, adding about $48M in annual interest expense. Hyperion bonds are now trading around 96 cents on the dollar, showing how financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects are starting to move higher.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?

In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.

For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.

When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.

Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?

Source: amit

Crude Oil has just surpassed $90/barrel for the first time since June, now up +25% in the past month.

At the same time, the 10-year treasury yield has now officially crossed 4.7%.

Jobless claims came in at +187K today vs +211K expected which is great for the labor market but once again means that inflation could see some upwards pressure.

This type of price action with oil and treasury yields just isn't something the Fed or the stock market loves to see.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia.

3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran.

4. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.1M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 844K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 828K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 803K contracts, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) with 746K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 745K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 722K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 548K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 540K contracts.

7. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure.

8. ServiceNow $ServiceNow(NOW.US) delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123.

9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US).

10. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability.

11. Baird reiterated Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market.

12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

ALPHABET Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $119.8B +24% YoY

- Google Search Revenue $63.3B +17% YoY

- Google Cloud Revenue $24.8B +82% YoY

- Google Cloud Operating Income $8.8B

- Operating Income $40.8B +30% YoY

- Net Income $112.1B +298% YoY

- Gemini App 950M Monthly Active Users

- Gemini Models Processing 22B API Tokens Per Minute

This is the first quarter in years that Google had negative FCF of -$5.8B, but this is also their fastest growing cloud quarter ever and strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years.

The capex spend is leading to them becoming one of the most important companies in serving AI to the world.

Source: amit

GOOGLE RAISES CAPEX FROM $190B TO $205B FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026

2027 CAPEX NOT DISCLOSED BUT WILL BE “SIGNIFICANTLY MORE”

Semis loving it after hours but Google is taking the hit as the market digests what “significantly more” means 😂

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Google is in a weird position today.

Let’s say they raise CapEx from $190B, the expected amount right now, to $200-$220B.

It would be super bullish for all the Semis, but would the market think that’s bearish for hyperscalers?

Would $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) go down on that news because they will be expected to raise? Google just diluted by $85B so the assumption is they will either increase capex or at the very least keep it flat per their previous guidance.

Now, let’s say Google increases their cloud business revenue growth rate again from last Q’s 63% to something like 70%. Amazing growth, but they obviously need to spend more on capex to meet the demand, does the market think that the capex increase is justified at that point if their cloud business is meaningfully growing?

What if their RPO, which is now at $450B, goes to something like $550B? Oracle and Microsoft increased their RPO’s by $100-$200B last Q, but the problem is most of that RPO is coming from OpenAI and Anthropic.

So if Google says the RPO isn’t distributed but more concentrated, does the market get concerned on if that RPO can convert into revenue? Google is also making their own chips, what implication does that business have on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) even if they increase capex?

Last Q, Google also had equity stakes in $SpaceX(SPCX.US) and Anthropic which saw valuation reratings that boosted their EPS. They won’t have that this time.

It’s going to be one of those quarters where the market will have to ask many questions around what is happening with capex, why is it increasing if it is, and where the growth is coming from to justify the increase.

If they decrease capex, it becomes a whole different question.

I think we get a strong quarter but many questions to be answered that Google will set the stage for when it comes to Big Tech earnings.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG GIVES AN UPDATE ON KIMI K3 AND CHINA'S OPEN SOURCE MODELS:

"American companies should absolutely be allowed to use Chinese AI models. There's a misconception that somehow there are backdoors connected to China in someway. You download the models, fine tune them, guardrail them in any way you want."

"These Chinese opensource models are excellent. The market has misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek the first time. It's misunderstood the impact of Kimi this time. Open models are great for the whole industry, there will be more usage which will require selling more Nvidia computers and building more datacenters."

"Great models lead to more usage. There is also a misunderstanding that open models are going to hurt the closed models, that is also wrong."

Source: amit

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Woah.

SMCI guided for 8.4-8.7% gross margins last quarter. They have a TTM gross margin of 8.83%.

They just came out after hours and said they are increasing their guide for gross margins to now 15-17%.

Even during 2024-2025, their gross margins went from 11-13%.

How does a commodity server rack provider double their margins in the past 90 days?

If anything, it feels like the company is either rolling out new products with better margins in the AI space or gaining more leverage with their customers to command better margins. If a low margin business like $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) can gain leverage, then other AI names can as well, which is part of the reason that competitors like $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) are up after hours.

Pretty incredible move from SMCI and could be a big moment for many AI names that are able to increase margins.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) +15%

Source: amit

The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.

If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.

At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.

However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.

Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.

Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.

If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?

These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency.

2. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack.

3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels.

4. Archer $Archer Aviation(ACHR.US) and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week.

5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.8M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 951K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 884K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 691K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 640K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 606K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 506K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 492K contracts.

7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice.

8. IREN $IREN(IREN.US) raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years.

9. UBS says Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom.

10. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route.

11. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed.

12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

Source: amit

TRUMP: EVERY TIME IRAN KILLS A US SOLIDER, THEY WILL PAY

So, the updates around the Iran War this morning have been confusing…

Reuters reported that Pakistan and Qatar are trying to create a “10-day framework” for a ceasefire which would put an end to the recent strikes. We initially had a 60 day ceasefire with the June MOU but that has since been violated.

That got oil prices to come down this morning from $85 to $82, but then…

- Bahrain reported Iranian attacks

- Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles

- A Saudi Vessel caught on fire in the Strait due to attacks

- A Greek Vessel caught on fire due to attacks

This is along with the strikes that were continued this weekend by the US.

Maybe we get a 10 day pause to begin negotiations again but if we do, it just feels like much more has to be resolved in order to have that pause lead to an actual end to the conflict.

Source: amit

Although price action has been a bit weak today, some very bullish datacenter/capex news over the past 24 hours...

- $IREN(IREN.US) signed $2.8B of deals with AI labs, bullish compute

- Kimi K3 said over the weekend they are pausing subscriptions because of demand which seems to be entirely consumer and not enterprise yet, bullish compute

- $Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) got a 15-year $9.8B deal today, bullish compute

- $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding their partnership with $AMD(AMD.US) and buying more chips, bullish compute

- The Information reported that $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new chip to use in-house called Frozen V2, they will have to use many of the chip suppliers in the stack to build more chips, bullish compute

The CapEx sentiment shift hasn't gone back to normal and Google earnings this week will be the first test to reaffirm the market's expectations of capex, but plenty of new deals and announcements that continue to be bullish on compute constraints and the trade associated with them overall.

Source: amit

Well, looks like this Iran War is not ending anytime soon...

- Over the past 24 hours, the the US announced that two service members were killed and several others were wounded in an Iranian attack on a US air base in Jordan.

- According to U.S. officials, the base has been used by American warplanes to conduct operations against Iran.

- Trump called the deaths of two U.S. service members in an Iranian attack “very sad,” according to NewsNation, reiterated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and said he “couldn’t care less” if Iran abandons the MOU.

Trump has reportedly ordered U.S. CENTCOM to "open the gates of hell" on Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, according to NPR, citing U.S. officials.

A separate U.S. official told CBS News that tonight's strikes are expected to be significantly larger and more extensive than previous operations.

Crude derivatives are trading at $83.60 today, up 18% from the lows two weeks ago.

Source: amit

$Grab(GRAB.US)

This will be a long post and dive into many things including Grab's stock performance, some updated thoughts on my Grab thesis after having visited Southeast Asia last month, and new models for valuation.

Let's get into it.

First off, it's obvious that the stock has not performed in the way that most would like since I first initiated coverage, which was at $4.50. The stock is currently at $3.57, so it is down 20% in the 1.5 years since I laid out my thesis.

I think there are many reasons for this but the common theme behind these reasons are less about the fundamentals and more about the macro. It sucks to say that because it would imply that larger forces have played a role outside of the business's execution, but I do think that has happened and unfortunately has made the investment, so far, unsuccessful.

Two major macro disruptions hurt grab: the price of oil skyrocketing and the violent shift to AI stocks. On the price of oil, the company actually has weathered the storm very nicely if you look at their latest earnings, but the sentiment around companies in a region that is prone to oil price risk has been very bad. On AI, this is something that I quite frankly just didn't see coming. $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is an exceptional business and in my opinion undervalued, but the overhang of robotaxis has led the stock to not do much. The intensity of the AI buildout that began in early 2025 meant that capital was rotating and Grab wouldn't play a role in that infra cap-ex trade which meant it would be prone to be stuck. I can't even blame the market here, why invest in a company that is growing 25% when you can pick memory names or neoclouds growing 500%?

Having said that, the fundamentals of the business have only gotten better. I know that in this market environment, if you can't get 20% ROI in a week then your stock is failure, but if we are being a bit more realistic...things take time. HOOD took time. PLTR took time. Not every name explodes because of a datacenter contract and I believe that has given some people unrealistic expectations. Regardless, an opportunity cost is an opportunity cost and if the stock price is the basis for judgement, then the investment has not fully played out yet. Thankfully, my time horizon is greater than 1.5 years. I did have calls on GRAB in addition to shares for Jan 2027 and if there is not a meaningful change over the coming months, those calls will be worth nothing. That is the game -- if you take a risk with options, you have to be ready for the downside.

Second, my experience in Southeast Asia. I visited Singapore and basically used GRAB every single day, multiple times a day. My initial thesis was based on a simple idea: compounding earnings growth while consolidating market share within the region. Being able to build the superapp that can grow users would allow upsells and as margins expand, so would operating leverage, which would elevate the company's value. Nothing in my personal experience changed that thesis and if anything, actually witnessing how intense the product was in the region strengthened my conviction.

In order to deal with competition in the region, Grab either has to expand or offer better deals to out compete. With 50M+ MAU, I believe they have still under penetrated the region and have a significant runway of growth to go in order to achieve these goals. Ultimately, many of the competitors in the region are burning cash and can't produce a profit. Eventually, I believe that marketshare continues to consolidate and the one left standing should be able to benefit the most.

Third, valuation. So, I have updated my models and assumptions based on Q1 numbers. I believe the conservative, fair intrinsic value for the name is at $7.50 which is why I continue to own shares.

Q1 2026:

Revenue guidance: $4.04-4.10B (+20-22%)

Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700-720M (+40%+)

Q1 revenue: $955M (+24% YoY)

Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $154M (+46% YoY)

Loan book: $1.44B (+130% YoY)

Financial Services approaching EBITDA breakeven

Ongoing $400M accelerated share repurchase

Net cash balance remains one of the strongest in internet/platform companies

For 2027, I would use deliberately conservative assumptions across all three scenarios.

In the bear case, Grab grows revenue by 15% to approximately $4.7 billion and reaches a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin, producing roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. In the base case, revenue grows by 18% to about $4.85 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 22%, resulting in approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In the bull case, revenue grows by 22% to around $5.0 billion and the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 25%, generating about $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These projections assume only moderate operating leverage, even though Grab has recently been expanding profitability faster than revenue.

For valuation, I would apply an 18x adjusted EBITDA multiple in the bear case, a 24x multiple in the base case, and a 28x multiple in the bull case.

Grab should trade at some discount to larger global platforms because of its geographic concentration in Southeast Asia and the risks associated with emerging markets. However, that discount is partly offset by Grab’s leading regional position, improving margins, financial-services growth, strong balance sheet, advertising opportunity, and continued share repurchases.

In the bear case, applying an 18x multiple to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of approximately $16.2 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would be about $21.2 billion. Using approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares outstanding, that implies a value of roughly $5.25 per share, with a reasonable bear-case range of approximately $5.25 to $5.75.

In the base case, applying a 24x multiple to approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about $25.7 billion. Adding roughly $5 billion of net cash results in an equity value of approximately $30.7 billion. Based on approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares, the implied value is around $7.55 per share. That supports a base-case valuation range of approximately $7.50 to $8.25 per share.

In the bull case, applying a 28x multiple to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA results in an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would reach about $40 billion. Dividing that by approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares produces an implied value of roughly $9.90 per share, supporting a bull-case range of approximately $9.75 to $11.00.

My preferred valuation framework therefore produces a bear case of $5.25 to $5.75 per share, a base case of $7.50 to $8.25 per share, and a bull case of $9.75 to $11.00 per share.

The base case does not require aggressive assumptions. It only assumes that Grab continues growing at a healthy but moderating rate, improves margins as the business scales, and receives a valuation multiple that remains below many higher-growth global technology and marketplace companies.

A valuation of $8.50 per share is also defensible without relying on an extreme bull case. One path would be for Grab to generate roughly $5 billion of revenue and achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 24%, producing approximately $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At a 24x multiple, that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $27.6 billion. Adding approximately $5 billion of net cash would produce an equity value of around $32.6 billion, or approximately $8.05 per share before factoring in additional share repurchases or stronger cash generation. A slightly higher EBITDA result, a modestly higher multiple, or a lower diluted share count could push the valuation into the $8.50 range.

Another path to $8.50 would be a moderate valuation rerating. If Grab generates approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and trades at 26x adjusted EBITDA rather than 24x, its enterprise value would be approximately $28.6 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, the equity value would be about $33.6 billion, which translates to approximately $8.30 per share using 4.05 billion diluted shares. Additional buybacks, higher net cash, or slightly stronger earnings could bring the implied value closer to $8.50 to $9.00 per share.

The market may also be underestimating Grab because it is still often viewed primarily as a ride-hailing and food-delivery company. In reality, Grab is developing several potential profit engines. Mobility can continue generating strong margins and cash flow, delivery benefits from greater scale and operational efficiency, financial services could become a meaningful earnings contributor as the loan book grows, and advertising remains relatively early in its development. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may improve driver utilization, merchant performance, customer targeting, and corporate efficiency.

In all of these scenarios, I am also not anticipating revenue growth of 30% or above. This is the wild card, given the company is expanding to Taiwan and has a host of new initiatives that they have been getting into with M&A, if they can reaccelerate to 30%+, it changes all assumptions and could further lead to a rerating.

Overall, I would view approximately $7.50 as a conservative base-case intrinsic value if Grab simply executes on its current trajectory. A value closer to $8.50 is reasonable if the company delivers modest upside to current expectations, continues expanding margins, repurchases shares, and receives even a small valuation rerating from the market.

So, those are my updated thoughts. Some have asked why I don't talk about the name everyday, it's simple: there isn't much to discuss. The name is stuck based on the market's lack of interest which is why I think the discount has become so intense. I continue to hold and until I feel the thesis changes dramatically, if it doesn't, then I will continue to engage in the most boring part of investing: being patient and trusting a thesis can play out.

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.

Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.

Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.

Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?

Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.

Source: amit

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

SpaceX has aborted a major test mission of their Starship rocket moments before liftoff

In Texas.

Well, the first real piece of news that has to due with the risky business of space has hit this stock as a public company.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) -4%

Source: amit

its hard to say that semis have topped or that capex beneficiaries have topped

but the sentiment shift has absolutely been violent away from semis/capex names

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $ASML(ASML.US) crush earnings, doesn’t help

big tech will most likely increase capex going into Q2 and maybe calm things down

but this selloff feels completely sentiment driven vs fundamentally driven

having said that, the sentiment going bearish doesnt have to be because semi fundamentals are bearish, but it could be because people were yolo’ing into names up 4-5x YTD…

SPY is almost at ATH, so this absolutely is a reset and maybe a needed reset even if it has been painful for semis

if you are heavy SaaS and Mag 7, not feeling as much pain as most of that selloff already happened a few months ago

are you buying any of the semis here?

Source: amit

trump does have a speech tonight that is going to be primetime and mainly focused on Iran…

if he uses that speech as an opportunity to justify why he needs to escalate, the market could be front-running a spike in oil based on that speech

which could also explain the high beta selloff today

oil now back above $80 🤷‍♂️

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Momentum stocks are getting crushed in July. Goldman Sachs’ High-Beta Momentum Index is down 24% month-to-date through the first half of the month, its worst stretch since April 2009. Morgan Stanley’s Tech Momentum Index is also seeing its sharpest breakdown on record, with its 17-day rate of change down 35%, the worst move in its 27-year history. But the broader market is holding up better, with the S&P 500 green today as hyperscalers rallied, showing the market may be broadening out beyond the hardest-hit momentum names.

2. PPI came in cooler than expected across the board. Headline PPI was 5.5% YoY vs 6.2% expected, while PPI fell 0.3% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core PPI was 4.7% YoY vs 5.1% expected, with Core PPI rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.

3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.7M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 2.5M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 895K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 815K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 754K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 717K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 506K contracts.

4. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is expanding its Toyota partnership beyond autonomous driving, supplying AI hardware and software for smart cities, traffic systems, and factories. Toyota will use Nvidia technology in Woven City, along with Omniverse for assembly-line digital twins, Isaac robotics, and Nemotron LLMs.

5. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) is exploring financial hedges to protect against a future decline in memory and storage chip prices, per Reuters. Put options and other derivative instruments have reportedly been discussed, though talks are still early and no hedges have been executed. The issue: AI cloud providers have signed long-term supply deals with companies like Micron and SanDisk that include price floors for DRAM and storage chips. That protects chipmakers if prices fall, but could leave cloud buyers stuck paying above-market rates.

6. Anthropic is preparing investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly working on the listing. The Claude maker was valued at $965B after its May funding round, reportedly surpassing OpenAI.

7. Stripe and Advent have reportedly offered to buy PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US) for $60.50/share, valuing the company at more than $53B, per Reuters. The offer is backed by roughly $50B in committed bank financing. Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal with equal stakes, rather than breaking the company up.

8. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly looking at AI chip acquisitions to strengthen its server-chip strategy, per The Information. The company has spoken with bankers and approached semiconductor startups as its current M2 Ultra-based AI servers struggle with more advanced AI workloads. Apple is also relying on Nvidia chips inside Google Cloud for heavier tasks, including parts of the revamped Siri. A future Apple AI server chip, code-named Baltra, was expected this year but has reportedly been delayed.

9. Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) will begin selling Nvidia-powered AI mobile network gear starting in 2027. The new AI-driven RAN platform is expected to improve spectrum efficiency by 50% next year and allow operators to transmit 2x more data over the same airwaves by 2028. The platform will also support software upgrades toward 6G and work with Open RAN standards.

10. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) introduced an asset-light AI cloud model built through infrastructure partnerships. Under the model, partners will finance, own, and operate the data centers and hardware, while Nebius provides the architecture, software stack, supply-chain access, and sells the capacity through its own sales team. Nebius expects to generate revenue through revenue-sharing, licensing fees, commissions, and committed capacity agreements, with minimal incremental capital required.

11. ASML $ASML(ASML.US) reported a massive Q2 beat and raised FY26 guidance. Net sales came in at €9.33B vs €8.85B expected, EPS was €7.59 vs €6.90, and gross margin reached 54.0% vs 52% expected. ASML said customers are accelerating capex plans, visibility is stronger than usual, and it is already close to receiving all required 2027 EUV orders. Memory is expected to drive major growth, with FY26 memory revenue up roughly 75%, EUV revenue up 45%, and Installed Base Management revenue up more than 30%. The company also said its updated guidance includes expected demand from Elon Musk’s Terafab project, with ASML expecting to collaborate with Musk’s team as AI drives more advanced Logic and Memory lithography demand.

12. Leveraged ETFs are flooding the U.S. market. There are now a record 700 U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs, more than twice the count at the end of 2024, with 400+ tied to individual stocks. Roughly 210 new leveraged funds have launched this year, already exceeding the ~205 launched during all of 2025. Leveraged and inverse products represented 31% of U.S. ETF launches in the first half of 2026, up from 22% last year. June alone saw 117 leveraged or inverse ETF debuts, nearly half of all 239 ETFs launched in the U.S. that month.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

semis in absolute freefall

SaaS and hyperscalers finally getting some love

maybe a rotation really is happening but every time you think it does, the semis come back

fair to say that it was time for the market to finally show some love to other companies, most of the semis are still up huge YTD

SaaS and Mag 7 buys all winter might just get rewarded in the summer

Source: amit

PPI RESULTS ARE INCREDIBLE

JUNE PPI 5.5% VS 6.2% EXPECTED

CORE PPI 4.7% VS 5.2% EXPECTED

We might not get a cut soon but we definitely do not need a hike...

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. June U.S. inflation came in much cooler than expected. Headline CPI was 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected, while CPI fell 0.4% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core CPI was 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected, with Core CPI flat at 0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected. This marks the first negative monthly inflation reading since 2020.

2. President Trump said he has decided to replace the proposed 20% United States Reimbursement Fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf States into the U.S. He said those investments will be “massive” while also being “extraordinarily good” for the Gulf States and their future.

3. IBM $IBM(IBM.US) went down 24% after preliminary Q2 results came in well below expectations. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up just 1% YoY, with consulting revenue flat and infrastructure revenue down 7% YoY. CEO Arvind Krishna said that in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, while cybersecurity concerns also distracted customers. IBM said it did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. The stock has lost roughly $65B in market cap.

4. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) moved from $122 in the premarket to $135 as the market opened. The stock opened down on the $IBM(IBM.US) news around software spend shifting toward capex spend and recovered into the open, closing up 3%. $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his piece about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation, not just tokens, while Chamath said on CNBC today that Karp “deserves a medal” for being on the right side of history in calling out foundation model companies that take IP without delivering customer value.

5. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said in his congressional testimony that he is “doubling down” on the 2% inflation target and believes this Fed will deliver 2% inflation. He added that a broader price stability objective is still in the back of his mind and said the Fed will see if further reforms are needed. Warsh also said he is prepared to do everything he can to ensure the independent conduct of monetary policy.

6. New York is set to enact the first statewide data center moratorium in the U.S., per NYT. Gov. Kathy Hochul will pause approvals for new hyperscale data centers using 50MW+ of power for one year while the state studies energy, water, and environmental impacts. The order takes effect immediately, but does not impact projects that already have required permits. Hospitals, universities, and back-office financial services are not expected to be affected.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 707K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 646K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 562K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 551K contracts, $IBM(IBM.US) with 494K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 492K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 478K contracts, and $Terawulf(WULF.US) with 420K contracts.

8. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) agreed to sell $1B+ of AI compute to Reflection AI through 2029, giving the company access to Nvidia GB300 chips. Reflection AI, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, also signed a multibillion-dollar compute deal with SpaceX last month and has reportedly discussed raising $2.5B at a $25B valuation. Nebius already has compute agreements with Microsoft and Meta.

9. OpenAI is developing a screen-free, battery-powered smart speaker designed as a humanlike AI companion and a new home AI computer. The first consumer product is reportedly focused on voice interaction and ambient presence, giving users an AI assistant they can build a connection with. The device includes a camera and other sensors to understand surroundings and context, while tapping into ChatGPT for richer assistance than conventional smart speakers. It can control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages, help with chores, assist with cooking, and play music as it moves around the home.

10. Aehr $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) reported a strong Q4 beat and guided well above the Street. Q4 EPS came in at $0.11 vs -$0.01 expected, while revenue was $18.8M vs $18.69M expected. The company also received $8M+ in new silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in orders as EV programs ramp, including a follow-on WaferPak order from its lead SiC production customer and a direct order from one of the world’s top two automakers to qualify SiC suppliers for next-gen EVs. Aehr said its lead customer indicated additional capacity needs this fiscal year. Most importantly, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) guided FY27 revenue to $130M–$150M, far above the Street at $85M.

11. Big banks reported a very strong Q2, with Goldman Sachs $Goldman Sachs(GS.US), Bank of America $Bank of America(BAC.US), JPMorgan $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), and Wells Fargo $Wells Fargo(WFC.US) all beating expectations. Goldman was the standout, with revenue of $20.34B vs $16.35B expected and EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45, driven by a massive 53% YoY jump in Global Banking & Markets and a 72% YoY surge in Equities S&T. Bank of America beat on revenue and EPS, with trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% YoY. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02B vs $51.39B expected and EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72, though NII was roughly in line. Wells Fargo also beat, with revenue up 9% YoY, EPS up 25% YoY, and net loan charge-offs coming in better than expected. Overall, the quarter showed stronger trading, resilient credit, and better-than-expected earnings power across the big banks.

12. South Korea is seeing an unprecedented foreign investor pullback. Overseas investors have dumped $110B of Korean equities so far this year, already far beyond the prior 7-year full-year high of $22B in 2021. The selling intensified in June, when foreigners unloaded $31B, the biggest monthly outflow ever recorded. At the same time, local buyers have stepped in aggressively, with domestic retail investors purchasing $60B and institutions adding $15B since May began. The pressure is now spilling into leveraged retail accounts: as of July 13, 1.2M Korean margin accounts had triggered margin calls, with roughly 320K–360K accounts fully liquidated by brokers.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit