Iggy's Journal: The 10-Year Treasury Just Pushed Past a 2007 High. Singapore's Banks Felt It the Next Morning.

25 September 2026, Morning

Wall Street's overnight session looked calm on the surface, three flat-to-slightly-down index moves. The bond market underneath it wasn't calm at all.

The Numbers

The Dow fell 0.31 percent to 51,349.98, the S&P 500 was essentially flat, down 0.02 percent to 7,704.13, and the Nasdaq actually closed up 0.01 percent at 26,939.37. None of that tells the real story. The 10-year US Treasury yield pushed past 5.11 percent and touched 5.20, retesting a level not seen since 2007, while Brent crude extended its rise for a second straight session, up 3.56 percent to $106.75, on the same Strait of Hormuz tension that pushed it through $103 the day before. USD/SGD sits at 1.2796. Back home, the STI closed Thursday's session down 0.5 percent at 5,683.37, on turnover of S$1.8 billion, dragged specifically by the banking trio: DBS down 0.3 percent to $77.48, OCBC down 0.2 percent to $31.59, and UOB down 0.8 percent to $42.50. Separately, StarHub and Keppel confirmed they've entered preliminary talks over a potential consolidation involving M1, still talks, no terms disclosed yet.

My Personal Take

A calm-looking index number can hide a genuinely unsettled bond market, and that's exactly what happened overnight. When the 10-year yield retests a level from 2007, every income asset back home gets repriced against that number whether the headline mentions it or not, and Singapore's own banks led the STI lower the very next session. That's not proof of causation on its own, but it's the kind of alignment worth watching rather than dismissing as coincidence. Oil rising two sessions running on the same geopolitical story is the other thread I'm not done with yet, one day of a move is noise, two is starting to look like a pattern.  

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.