if you're wondering why the 10-year is down today even though CPI had a horrible print...which should be causing yields to go up because that means we have a higher chance of a rate hike due to more inflation...

i *think* it's because the bond market wants to see the stock market go down.

and not just stocks, but AI/semi/capex stocks in particular.

the theory i've had over the past couple of weeks is that as we see more issuance of corporate debt in order to fuel capex...that is obviously competing with the long end of the curve for US treasuries

i mean, one can even argue that bond yields we're going to go up regardless of the oil issues because those yields simply couldn't stay at 4% if meta/google/amzn/msft were offering 6-7% on their corporate debt

so the obvious answer now could be for there to be LESS competition with the US 10-year...but the only way for that to happen is for their to be lower-yielding debt from the hyperscalers that are issuing bonds to fuel their capex spend

well...the only way that happens is if the capex stops, slows down, or the cost to build these datacenters drop so that the borrowing costs drop

which is why we have seen yields RISE every day over the past few weeks when semis go up and we are seeing them go down when semis go down...it's like the credit market is saying "we will only buy bonds if you guys stop buying semis"

this doesn't mean that stocks writ-large have to go down, but it does mean that the credit markets are asking for something to break in the equity markets and its like they want semis to be the main culprit. if semis keep going to the moon, cool, but then so will yields and then maybe a 6% 10-year is what breaks everything?

not sure if this theory is right but the objectively true part is the competition between US corp debt and treasuries, if all that corp debt is going to buy semis then when semis go down, it makes sense for treasuries to go up

the easiest way to get SOME relief here is for Trump to end the war so gas/energy comes down and puts relief on inflation...but today's CPI showed the opposite and yields STILL went down because semis got hit

it's a very, very weird time to understand how the bond market is navigating the AI trade

Source: amit