NVIDIA H20 returns to China! Bitcoin surges to 120K! Tonight's CPI... ...

Long time no see.

Went to Hong Kong to meet clients yesterday, had afternoon tea at the Peninsula. The Peninsula is still as beautiful as ever.

And the French toast at the cha chaan teng was so yummy!

1. Market News

Trump issued an ultimatum to the EU and Mexico, threatening to impose 30% tariffs. Trump's stance remains very high, but the EU also has countermeasures, preparing a retaliatory tariff list. However, both sides have not abandoned negotiations. Our focus remains on August 1st. If an agreement is reached, everything will be fine, and U.S. stocks will continue to rise. But if talks collapse, retaliatory measures from various countries could emerge. Currently, the former scenario is more likely.

U.S. tariff revenue hit a new high in June, and Trump's goal of easing fiscal pressure seems to have been achieved. Today, the U.S. June CPI data will be released. June is the third month after the tariff hammer fell, making it the most critical period. Watch for whether inflation has risen significantly.

Earnings reports are also due today. Goldman Sachs predicts increased volatility in U.S. stock earnings days this quarter, as key market issues—tariffs, AI, interest rates, and government policies—are more likely to create winners and losers rather than uniform market movements. Volatility on earnings days this quarter could easily reach 3.5 times that of non-earnings days, up from 2.5 times in the previous cycle.

2. U.S. Stock Holdings

Among the "Magnificent Seven," Amazon, Apple, and Google have yet to hit new highs. These will catch up at different speeds and eventually reach new highs.

$Amazon(AMZN.US)

Target buy-in price around 219.

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Target buy-in price around 206.

$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)

Target buy-in price around 175.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Bought the dip on July 7th for a short-term trade, took partial profits on Thursday and the rest on Friday. Friday saw a low-volume rise with resistance at the 30-day moving average. On the news front, Musk previously stated he does not support merging xAI and Tesla, as xAI has used many of Tesla's training clusters. Musk needs to balance xAI's development with Tesla's core business through capital operations and technological innovation.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Jensen Huang is about to visit China, possibly for new business collaborations. Most importantly, Nvidia will resume sales of the H20 in China this morning. The U.S. had been restricting China, and Nvidia's business share in China has been declining. The lifting of restrictions will significantly boost Nvidia's performance. When deliveries begin in August, Nvidia is expected to see strong performance. Nvidia is the first stock of the AI era—buy low, sell high, and hold long-term.

U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, are highly correlated. So, good news for Nvidia will lift the chip sector, further boosting the Nasdaq. Watch for opportunities in the chip sector: SOXL, AMD, TSM. Currently, Shelly holds NVDA, NVDL, SOXL, and AMD in the chip sector. New trades will be shared in the group.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's surge past $120,000 is the result of multiple factors:

1. Scarcity. Bitcoin is digital gold, capped at 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism limiting supply.

2. Surging institutional demand. Bitcoin ETFs approved in the U.S., some countries recognizing Bitcoin transactions, Tesla buying Bitcoin assets, Amazon and Walmart preparing to launch stablecoin systems... and yesterday, China Merchants International was approved for a virtual asset license, which is just the beginning.

3. Expectations of further gains. AI and AI agents are driving Bitcoin's rise.

4. Trump's support, pushing for Bitcoin as a strategic reserve via executive order, will boost long-term market confidence. Previously, Congress designated July 14th as Crypto Week, reviewing multiple bills to provide national regulation for digital assets.

Bitcoin's rise will lift crypto-related stocks. Watch Circle, MSTR, COIN.

Among the "Magnificent Seven," Amazon, Apple, and Google have yet to hit new highs. These will catch up at different speeds and eventually reach new highs.

3. Hong Kong Stock Holdings

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

Entering a consolidation phase after a big rally, rising on low volume. Strong stocks have cooled off, while blue chips are taking the stage. The trend remains intact, with potential for a breakout.

$ZHOU LIU FU(06168.HK)

Ready to add positions anytime.

$MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Rose on low volume yesterday, slightly weak, still not rushing to buy the dip. Today's rally looks good, considering adding positions.

$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Near the bottom, need to observe if it can stabilize.

BTW, Geek+ rose 8% yesterday, took partial profits, letting the rest run.

Coconut water has been dropping daily, now down for nine straight days. IPO flipping is risky—lesson learned.

Unisound has been rising since its IPO, up another 14% today. Clearly, they're pushing for inclusion in the Stock Connect. We're already studying Hong Kong Stock Connect strategies—there are many patterns to follow.

$IFBH(06603.HK) $SANHUA(02050.HK) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Unitedhealth(UNH.US)