The recent divergence in the U.S. stock market and the core logic behind the Nasdaq bull run lie in the AI-driven performance of listed companies, with the financial results of tech giants led by NVIDIA serving as the key evidence. This assessment is accurate.

Core Logic and Market Focus: The market is indeed highly focused on whether AI can continue to deliver tangible profits for companies. NVIDIA, as the absolute leader in AI chips, has its earnings report regarded as a critical indicator of AI industry demand and future prospects. Historical data shows that NVIDIA has a habit of "exceeding expectations and raising guidance."

Recent Trends and Market Expectations: The volatility in NVIDIA's stock price ahead of its earnings report reflects the market's mixed sentiments—both anticipation of high growth and concerns over overvaluation and whether performance can continue to exceed expectations. Its market cap has surpassed $4 trillion, accounting for nearly 8% of the S&P 500, making its performance significantly impactful on the broader market.

Strategy Recommendation: "Hold and wait for signals" is a relatively prudent approach. This means preparing contingency plans in advance:

NVIDIA's earnings report is coming soon.

If the report exceeds expectations and provides optimistic guidance: It may boost market confidence in the entire AI sector, potentially fueling another round of gains for tech stocks.

If the report falls short of expectations or offers conservative guidance: It could trigger short-term volatility, heightening cautious sentiment toward AI investments.

The Hong Kong stock market is quite unique, heavily influenced by both U.S. and A-share markets. Therefore, investing in Hong Kong stocks should focus on high-quality assets that can benefit from "dual advantages"—such as opportunities from potential Fed rate cuts and policy-driven dividends from A+H shares. This approach is quite sound.

First, the characteristics of the Hong Kong market and its influencing factors: The Hong Kong market is essentially an "offshore market." where capital inflows depend on global liquidity (especially Fed policy, which dictates the tightness of the U.S. dollar) and the fundamentals of China's economy. Recently, there has been a significant shift, with the market pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September and the U.S. dollar weakening. Under such conditions, capital tends to flow into emerging markets, potentially increasing liquidity for Hong Kong stocks.

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