Recently, I have been involved in a national distribution project, with roadshows happening every few days. It's been a while since I last updated everyone. Tonight, I watched Lei Jun's speech and was fired up by his words: "Just focus on working hard, and leave the rest to fate." Although I'm not a Xiaomi fan, I do have some trust in Lei Jun.

Today, Lei Jun compared Xiaomi with the iPhone 17 at the Xiaomi launch event, hoping that one day Xiaomi can truly surpass the iPhone.

First, let's look at the hardware of the new product. The Xiaomi 17 series already has the capability to surpass the iPhone 17 in some areas, but there is still a gap in ecosystem barriers and brand premium. Its stock price may rebound to HKD 60 in the short term, but risks should be noted.

In terms of hardware, the Xiaomi 17 series continues the advantage of "stacking specs." It is the world's first to feature TSMC's 3nm fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 Ultimate Edition, with multi-core performance surpassing Apple's A19 Pro. Playing "Genshin Impact" offers more stable frame rates and lower device temperatures, which should excite many gamers. The 200MP periscope telephoto zoom capability of the 17 Pro Max is better than the iPhone 17. Battery life and fast charging configurations far exceed the iPhone 17 series. The price is also more competitive, with the standard 17 model priced at only 75% of the iPhone 17, and the Pro Max top configuration nearly 30% lower.

However, the software ecosystem is Xiaomi's weak point. Although HyperOS 3.0 has improved, its background retention capability is inferior to iOS, and third-party app adaptation is slower. However, the 'Human-Car-Home Full Ecosystem' is its unique feature. The Xuanjie O1 chip performs impressively, placing Xiaomi in the first tier of high-end chips, but the initial installation volume is small, making it difficult to replace Qualcomm in the short term.

In terms of stock price, Xiaomi's current closing price is HKD 56.9, close to its previous high, with a P/E (TTM) of 19x, lower than Tencent and Amazon, leaving room for recovery. The strong growth in smartphones, cars, and IoT businesses has led to optimistic market expectations, with a ~70% probability of reaching HKD 60 in the next 3-6 months. However, risks such as the strong pre-order performance of the iPhone 17, the high R&D costs of the Xuanjie chip, and geopolitical factors should be noted. Short-term investors can consider buying the dip around HKD 55 and take partial gains when profitable.

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