
How unreliable is Burns' short report on Pop Mart?










$POP MART(09992.HK) The reasonable calculation logic should be: if calculated based on the normal market's reasonable net profit CAGR of 24%, 30%, and 35% (corresponding to conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios) for the next three years, Bernstein's PEG=1 benchmark is still used for measurement. The forecasted earnings per share for 2026, from conservative to neutral to optimistic expectations, are HK$13.11, HK$13.74, and HK$14.27, respectively. (Currently, the 30-day consensus leading forecast for net profit CAGR from 2026 to 2027 on Wind is around 35%, which shows my optimistic expectation is closer to the neutral consensus expectation of brokerages.) The corresponding target prices for Pop Mart in 2026 are: Conservative target price: HK$327.75; Neutral target price: HK$412.20; Optimistic target price: HK$499.45.
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