猫大人的FIRE计划

$ROBOSENSE(02498.HK) organized some data about RoboSense.

$ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK)For Zijin Mining, when gold and copper prices are in short-term fluctuations, it is highly likely that they will continue to fluctuate between the current price range of 30-33. Waiting for the next round of performance realization. The market clearly realized Zijin's original Q3 earnings expectations on October 9. However, currently, Zijin Mining's growth rate matches its market value. If you have sufficient trading discipline and experience in volatility trading, you can enjoy the fluctuations, most likely between 30-33, with an extended range of 28-34. For long-term investors, Zijin Mining's current fundamentals and growth expectations for the next 2-3 years have not changed. Holding long-term and waiting for the next round of realization is also normal.

$POP MART(09992.HK)Although the stock price has experienced a significant short-term pullback, in reality, there has been a stable and continuous net inflow of funds over the past 20 days. Under normal circumstances, when the stock price stabilizes, short positions will gradually start to close (though a short-term collective push by short sellers is not ruled out, but such short-term predictions are not very meaningful). However, from a capital perspective, Pop Mart is clearly undergoing a process of position rotation and mutual criticism.

$POP MART(09992.HK) There have been too many ghost stories about Pop Mart recently.

Pop Mart's Q3 net profit was 3.7 billion, and the full-year net profit for 2025 is expected to be around 12 billion RMB, which is basically an open secret. Based on the current market cap, the 2025 P/E ratio is 23.8x; if calculated based on the Q3 net profit of 3.7 billion, the dynamic P/E ratio is 19x.

Even if the net profit growth rate in 2026 is only 35%, the full-year net profit for 2026 would still be at least 16.2 billion RMB, corresponding to a current P/E ratio of 17.6x.

Wind's consensus earnings estimate is even higher than mine, at around 17 billion RMB in profit expectations, and this is still the result of some research reports not being updated based on Q3 performance expectations.

As of last night, from October 21 to October 22, 18 brokerages issued research reports, 15 of which provided target price guidance.

Even JPMorgan, which was the first to turn bearish, raised its target price from 300 yuan to 320 yuan and then to 350 yuan yesterday. So, in terms of value, are all the analysts in the market wrong, or is the market wrong?

I think neither is wrong, because the market is often counterintuitive in the short term. For large institutions, their average holding period is over 12 months, so they hardly feel short-term fluctuations. For some foreign investment banks, it's a no-brainer to short squeeze the bullish warrants first and then push the cost even lower.

The market is never wrong; the only ones wrong are those who follow short-term emotions. There's no yardstick for judging a company's value based on short-term fluctuations. When a stock rises, people are bullish on the company's future and can swallow any big story. When a stock falls, they think the whole market is full of ghost stories. But after all the ups and downs, the company's fundamentals haven't changed much.

Let's take stock of Pop Mart's ghost stories. (Due to word limits, see the image.)

Graham likened the market to an extremely emotional "Mr. Market." He shows up every day with a quote: sometimes he's optimistic and offers a high price; other times he's pessimistic and offers a low price. The investor's task is not to be swayed by his mood swings but to take advantage of them.

Rising stocks increase risk rather than reduce it, and falling stocks reduce risk rather than increase it.

Let’s encourage each other.

$POP MART(09992.HK) was simply sold off, with no change in fundamentals

$ROBOSENSE(02498.HK)RoboSense inexplicably repurchased nearly HKD 10 million today. Normally, for companies like this that still need financing and are not yet profitable, repurchases are quite rare. Interested fans can take a look at the changes after each repurchase.

$POP MART(09992.HK)Pop Mart is waiting to return to 320+, as I've said many times, it's just the expectation being realized

$ZIJIN GOLD INTL(02259.HK) is really a very standard process of pumping and dumping to southbound capital.

$ZIJIN GOLD INTL(02259.HK)On October 16, Zijin Gold International was included in the Hang Seng Composite Index. According to the fast-track inclusion rules, Zijin Gold International is also expected to be included in the Stock Connect on the same day.

It might drop first as a sign of respect, which could also affect the short-term volatility of Zijin Mining. I previously wrote about the valuation logic of Zijin Gold International, and there is still a significant premium. If Zijin Mining falls sharply tomorrow, it might actually be an opportunity.

$GEELY AUTO(00175.HK)I personally believe that the trade war will have little short-term impact on Geely's business. On the one hand, a significant portion of Geely's overseas automotive business is under Geely Holding, not Geely Automobile. On the other hand, Geely Automobile's overseas growth is currently progressing well, and the main growth direction is not in the U.S. but rather in South America and Europe.

In the short term, at least the market capital seems to recognize Geely. The net inflow into Geely has been quietly increasing over the past 20 days. Although the stock price has been consolidating in the short term, capital is quietly flowing in. I still believe that 18.5 is the recent consolidation bottom price. I've already discussed the calculation logic before.

$ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK) is currently inverted with the gold price trend, with opportunities outweighing risks in the short term. The financial report will be released on October 17.

$AUX ELECTRIC(02580.HK)I can't say I'm optimistic about this company, but there's a chance it could rebound to its issue price before entering the Stock Connect. There's about 20-25% upside potential, making it a playable stock. The fundamentals are decent, and it's indeed cheap now, so it's not a big risk.

$CAOCAO INC(02643.HK) is a company suitable for swing trading. Next year is likely to be a big year for L3 autonomous driving, and the robotaxi concept is highly likely to see a major rally. It's suitable for day trading in the short term, with little risk of getting trapped. Holding long-term to wait for the trend is also a good choice. It's the kind of company that could easily double when the trend comes.

$ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK) The net profit in the 2025 interim report decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but this was mainly due to the high base effect in the same period of 2024. Excluding the non-recurring gains from the listing of Amer Sports in the first half of 2024, ANTA's core net profit actually increased by 14.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. It is a company with very stable growth. Although it is in the traditional sports consumption sector, it is a good company that can maintain steady growth in the current environment and has been consistently repurchasing shares. I think HKD 86-88 is a good entry point. In June, I said ANTA could rise to HKD 105, and I still hold this view.

$CHINA LIT(00772.HK) is also one of the companies I have been following for a long time. The logic remains the same: the IP value of China Literature has not yet been realized, and its main business is growing steadily. The Waterloo in the previous financial report was mainly caused by the impairment of the previously acquired media and film companies, which does not constitute a long-term negative factor. The current dynamic PE is only 20 times, and the recent decline is more of a correction of the previous short-term overvaluation. Now it has become cost-effective again and is worth paying attention to. I think a reasonable entry range is around HKD 36-38, and by the end of the year (end of December or the release of the annual report), the target price could reach HKD 48. I expect there is still about 30% upside potential.

$ROBOSENSE(02498.HK) This is one of the companies I have always been bullish on. Although I said that from April to July, Hesai should be prioritized, and RoboSense would underperform Hesai during this period. But I also said that RoboSense's expectations for Q4 would be better. On one hand, many of RoboSense's orders are concentrated for delivery starting in Q4. On the other hand, RoboSense's new products, the Active Camera AC2 and high-performance automotive blind spot radar, will begin rolling out for delivery during this period. Technically, RoboSense is not lagging behind Hesai; it's more that its product strategy was temporarily overtaken by Hesai. Moreover, as a necessary component for future autonomous driving and robotics, LiDAR is an industry sector I remain bullish on in the long term. I think a reasonable entry point is around HK$34-36. By the end of 2025 (or when the annual report is released, since this is a full-year target price expectation, sometimes we need to wait for the annual report to confirm), my target price remains HK$50, representing about 40% upside. Even if it doesn't reach that, next year will still be a new peak for LiDAR shipments, making it a company that won't lose out even if held long-term.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)Although Xiaomi has been facing a lot of public opinion recently and has been hit hard by its previous marketing strategies, its current price is basically at 25 times dynamic PE, with relatively high revenue growth expectations in the later period. In my March post, I wrote that Xiaomi's reasonable buying range was 46.53-49.11; this conclusion still holds. Xiaomi's automotive and AI hardware smart home sectors also have good growth potential, and by the end of the year (or at the latest by the 2025 annual report), I think there's still a chance to reach the 60-65 range, representing a 20%-30% upside.

$Hesai(HSAI.US) previously mentioned the take-profit point at 30 yuan. I think if it falls to around 23, it's not a bad thing and might even present an opportunity. In the medium term of the market, there are fewer undervalued stocks to pick up, and the safety margin is shrinking. More focus is on finding companies with reasonable prices and growth potential. The golden pit is almost filled.