Investment Strategy Outlook Amid Global Market Turbulence

With the decline in the probability of a Fed rate cut in December as a trigger, it has recently dragged down U.S. stocks and global risk assets.
But the deeper reason is that the Fed chair, who determines global benchmark interest rates, is also nearing a transition. Before the handover is completed, the market is worried that the Fed will act conservatively and is concerned about the style of the next appointee. The market is preparing for a subsequent style shift.

For U.S. stocks, it's not yet the bottom, and the market hasn't stabilized. However, market experience shows that the U.S. is accustomed to sharp declines forming a bottom. The current divergence is more about whether the sharp decline is stabilization or a revaluation of "AI tech stocks." My personal judgment is the former, though I've always been worried about the AI bubble. However, a U.S. stock bubble bursting now wouldn't benefit the U.S. much.
It's more like a "blind spot of expectations" now.
The U.S. dollar index has started a strong rebound under the expectation of no rate cuts, rising back above 100 points (historically, such strength tends to be short-lived).

If gold doesn't see a rate cut in December, it may experience a pullback, but it will likely stay within the previously mentioned range of 3850-4150. The long-term logic hasn't changed.
For U.S. stocks, I believe it's a process of sharp decline followed by stabilization. In recent days, it's clear that some market funds have already shifted from tech to safer bets like UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson (as briefly mentioned last time). It will likely fluctuate at low levels until late December when things settle.
As long as the AI bubble doesn't burst, U.S. stocks won't face systemic issues. If it does burst, it would trigger a major reshuffle of global risk assets.
For A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to see limited pullbacks, with a probable bottom around 3750-3800 from 4000 points, given the presence of stabilization measures and bank support if needed. Short-term group investments will see larger pullbacks. The cycle from grouping to disintegration is much faster now.
As for Hong Kong stocks, they’re like the canary in the coal mine, having already entered the bottom range ahead of others. Previous conclusions still hold, and the current situation aligns more with the second scenario.
There’s also a conspiracy theory about the U.S.-China financial war behind Hong Kong stocks, which we’ll discuss later.

Finally, a recent report I read on Goldman Sachs' "Five-Year Plan for Chinese Stocks" emphasizes a five-year strategic approach to selecting companies—breaking down national strategies into investment frameworks and applying them to specific firms.
I personally like this approach, which aligns with my trading style: no short-term predictions, no trading frenzy, using policy trends to identify sectors, and fundamentals to pick winners.
We can discuss this report in detail later.