Moshai•Fed's dovish tone sounds, Hang Seng temporarily breaks out of bottom-finding pattern! 29-11 Review

Hello everyone, time flies so fast, it's time for me, Mo Shuai, to share my weekly summary and review. Writing long articles isn't easy, so I sincerely hope everyone can give me more attention and support 🙏🙏

Reviewing this week's market trends
Last week, I mentioned that the Fed's top three officials released dovish signals, hinting at another possible rate cut in December. At that time, it was expected that the market $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) would rebound from its low and potentially recover the 100-day moving average ~25,730 points. As a result, the market indeed saw a strong rebound!

This week's market perfectly confirmed our predictions from last week, with a powerful rebound! On Monday, the Hang Seng Index surged over 500 points in a single day, reclaiming the critical 100-day moving average ~25,730 points, instantly reversing last week's pessimistic sentiment. Additionally, the three major U.S. stock indices $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$$Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC.US)$$S&P 500 (.SPX.US)$ all rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq leading the gains after $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) released its latest AI model Gemini and TPU chips, dispelling market concerns about an AI bubble and driving up $Apple(AAPL.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Meta Platforms(META.US)$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$Intel(INTC.US) and other tech giants, with only $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) falling against the trend. As a result, driven by the strong performance of U.S. stocks, the Hong Kong market $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ also climbed higher, with blue-chip tech leader $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ surging above 160 HKD at one point due to its "Qianwen" App surpassing 10 million downloads, while $Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$ rebounded strongly after Lei Jun increased his stake by 100 million yuan. Boosted by these two major positive factors, the market briefly broke through the psychological barrier of 26,000 points, reaching this week's high of 26,136 points!

Subsequently, the market lost the 26,000 point level again after $BABA-W(09988.HK) announced its earnings. Although the overall results exceeded market expectations, the profit performance was not ideal, and the 160 HKD level was weighed down by a large amount of "crab stocks," causing the stock price to fall back to around 150 HKD, failing to sustain its previous strength. Nevertheless, the market ultimately stabilized above the 100-day moving average ~25,730 points, mainly benefiting from the rebound of tech stocks $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$$Kuaishou-W (01024.HK)$$Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK)$ simultaneously rebounding. In addition, high-dividend financial stocks performed strongly, including $HSBC Holdings (00005.HK)$$China Construction Bank (00939.HK)$$AIA (01299.HK)$ and other heavyweight stocks. Meanwhile, the A-share market $Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH)$ rose due to the positive external sentiment, but the rebound was relatively weak, failing to reclaim the 3,900 point mark. Currently, market sentiment has gradually recovered from extreme pessimism, and the disadvantage has been somewhat reversed. However, for the trend to truly strengthen, more substantial positive news is needed to further boost investor confidence.

In summary, the market rose by 638 points this week, closing at 25,858 points. In terms of trading volume, the total weekly turnover was 1.092 trillion yuan, shrinking compared to last week, with Friday's turnover sharply dropping to 146.2 billion yuan, indicating a clear slowdown in momentum. The rebound was not accompanied by active capital inflows, raising concerns about its sustainability.

From a technical perspective, this week's market "opened high and closed high," confirming a short-term breakout from the bottom-searching pattern. The weekly chart showed a small bullish candle, indicating preliminary signs of a recovery. Notably, the technical signals were contradictory: this week's low ~25,369 points was higher than last week's 25,178 points, forming a higher low and preliminarily confirming a short-term bottom. However, this week's high ~26,136 points was lower than last week's 26,531 points, revealing the weakening momentum of the rebound. Overall, the small bullish candle on the weekly chart ended the bottom-searching pattern but did not initiate a strong upward trend. The market has formed a clear range: the upper resistance is at the 20-day moving average ~26,161 points, and the lower support is at the 25,000 point integer mark. The market needs to break through this range to establish the next phase of direction.

Outlook for next week
With the Fed's dovish signals, the global market sentiment changed abruptly this week! The three major U.S. stock indices rose for five consecutive days, with strong momentum, as capital flowed back into risk assets and ignited global stock market enthusiasm. Encouraged by this, Hong Kong futures have already rebounded by over 127 points, reclaiming the 26,000 point mark, and market sentiment has turned optimistic. Therefore, the market is expected to further recover the key level of the 20-day moving average ~26,161 points. However, the market must break through and stabilize above the 20-day moving average with volume. If it fails to do so effectively, the current upward trend may be difficult to sustain. Let's wait and see how the market performs next week 😉😉

This week's highlights
1. This week, the market focused on $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ and $Meituan-W (03690.HK)$, both of which announced their earnings this week. Although Alibaba's overall results exceeded expectations, the key issue was the decline in profits, with few highlights. However, Meituan's performance was even worse, with a huge loss of 16 billion yuan, clearly struggling with fierce market competition. The two financial reports lead to one conclusion: the price war in the food delivery industry has had a substantial impact on the profitability of industry leaders, causing deep market concerns.

2. This week, a document stimulating the consumption of animation and trendy toys was released, bringing substantial benefits to the industry. Among them, $Pop Mart (09992.HK)$, which owns popular IPs like Labubu, became the market's focus. From a trend perspective, its stock price not only showed clear signs of bottoming out but also regained its upward momentum under policy expectations.

3. This week, $GAC Group (02238.HK)$ surged 31% due to the dual positive factors of the full delivery of the "National Good Car" and the completion of the all-solid-state battery production line, showing very strong performance.

This week's operations
$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$~Sell This week, I personally took profits and exited at 160 HKD, mainly because the short-term target for Alibaba's rebound was achieved.

$Alibaba Health (00241.HK)$~Buy This week, I personally bought in when Alibaba Health fell below 5.7 HKD, as the earnings exceeded expectations, although the earnings per share fell short of market expectations. I believe a short-term rebound is possible, with a short-term target of 6 HKD.

Future deployment
After the Fed released dovish signals, whether it was cryptocurrencies $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ or safe-haven assets $Gold/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$, they all rebounded strongly, with Bitcoin returning to 90,000 USD per coin and gold prices rebounding to reclaim the key psychological barrier of 4,200 USD/ounce! On the other hand, recent market capital has clearly turned, flowing into domestic banks, Hong Kong bank stocks such as $HSBC Holdings (00005.HK)$$China Merchants Bank (03968.HK)$$China Construction Bank (00939.HK)$, and telecom stocks including $China Mobile (00941.HK)$$China Telecom (00728.HK)$ and other high-dividend sectors for hedging. This reflects that conservative investors are actively deploying dividend strategies. However, chasing individual stocks at current highs is relatively passive, and once the market corrects, it will face greater risks. Instead, it is better to focus on high-dividend ETFs, such as the $FB SSH HIGH DIV(03190.HK) issued by Fubon Fund. This ETF tracks the Hang Seng CSI-HK (Selected Enterprises) 300 Index, which selects high-dividend companies listed in Hong Kong and mainland China, with a total of 30 constituent stocks, including the largest-weighted $China Hongqiao (01378.HK)$, $COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (01919.HK)$, Sino Group, $Yankuang Energy (01171.HK)$, Henderson Land, PetroChina, CNOOC, China Shenhua, Swire Properties, Wharf Real Estate, etc. This ETF distributes dividends every three months (yesterday announced a December dividend of 0.15 HKD), with a dividend yield of nearly 6%. It is worth mentioning that $FB SSH HIGH DIV(03190.HK) outperforms similar ETFs, mainly due to the significant contribution from its heavily weighted stock $China Hongqiao (01378.HK)$. For investors seeking stable medium- to long-term dividend income, this ETF is a more diversified and efficient choice.

Summary
This week, the market rebounded strongly, driven by the Fed's dovish signals and the continued strength of U.S. tech stocks. The market dispelled concerns about an AI bubble, driving the market's gains to expand continuously and briefly reclaiming the key 26,000 point mark. Although it failed to hold above 26,000 points, the market ultimately managed to hold the 100-day moving average, technically confirming a breakout from the one-sided bottom-searching pattern, with market sentiment significantly improving.

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Thank you for your continued support and attention 🙇‍♂️🙇‍♂️

The above content is purely for personal sharing purposes and can only be used as a reference, not constituting any investment advice. Investment involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market.