Robinhood (HOOD) 周报：2025 年 12 月 20 日-12 月 26 日

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)  Weekly Report: December 20-26, 2025 Recap

Overview

This week (December 20-26, 2025), Robinhood (HOOD) continued to benefit from its strong annual growth momentum, but no major financial or strategic announcements were made. Key events included the launch of the "HOOD Holidays" campaign on December 26 and the resulting technical glitches in the app. The company's stock price has risen 220% year-to-date, driven by rapid expansion in prediction markets and crypto businesses, but this week saw minor fluctuations, closing in the $120-122 range. Below is a recap of the week's developments across key dimensions, with data sourced from public filings, news reports, and social media monitoring.

Core Business & Financial Performance

No new quarterly earnings were released this week, but operational data for November disclosed on December 10 showed year-over-year growth in equity and options Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs), with crypto DARTs remaining robust. Full-year financial performance stands out: revenue for the first nine months grew 65% YoY to $3.19 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 116% to $1.76 billion. Full-year revenue is projected at $4.6-4.7 billion (+55% YoY), with EPS expected at $1.95-2.07 (+79% YoY). Assets Under Custody (AUC) continued to expand, with retirement account AUC up 144% YoY to $24.2 billion in Q3, and cash sweep balances rising 44% YoY to $35.4 billion.

On product penetration, features like the Gold Card and retirement accounts saw no updates this week, but Gold Card subscriptions grew 77% YoY to 3.88 million, and prediction markets became the company’s fastest-growing product, generating $300 million in annualized revenue. The "HOOD Holidays" campaign aimed to boost user engagement, potentially driving short-term DARTs and AUC growth, though app glitches may have dampened actual uptake.

Overall, business remained stable this week with no negative financial shocks.

Internal & Strategic Developments

No executive changes or internal adjustments were announced this week. Strategic focus remains on product innovation and tech roadmaps: AI features and prediction market tools unveiled during the December 16 "YES/NO" event continued to resonate, while "HOOD Holidays" (December 26) marked the company’s first holiday marketing push, designed to enhance stickiness and potentially integrate products like Gold Card and retirement accounts. Long-term tech priorities include tokenized assets, global expansion (e.g., Asia), and deeper crypto integration, though no progress was reported this week.

Earlier news of CFO Jason Warnick’s transition (November 6) saw no follow-up, reflecting overall internal stability. Operational efficiency remains high, with lean structures supporting leverage.

Industry & Competitive Landscape

Fintech trends were stable this week, with retail investor influence growing and 2025 poised for record U.S. equity inflows. Robinhood leads in brokerage, with its stock up 228% YTD, far outpacing Schwab (SCHW, +57%) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).

Competitive moves: On December 12, Interactive Brokers announced stablecoin deposits to counter Robinhood and Schwab’s crypto edge. This could intensify competition in crypto trading, but Robinhood’s zero-fee crypto and prediction markets ($300M annualized) remain differentiators. Schwab’s CEO noted in July that clients want integrated crypto/traditional asset management—aligned with Robinhood’s ecosystem play—though Robinhood’s user base skews younger.

No direct competitive threats emerged this week, leaving Robinhood well-positioned.

Market Sentiment & User Feedback

Social media (X platform) sentiment turned negative this week, primarily due to app crashes during "HOOD Holidays" (December 26). Complaints included black screens, failed gift claims, and trade delays (e.g., "ROBINHOOD IS DOWNNNNN I CANT GET MY FREEBIE" and "$莱德物流 (R.US) obinhood(HOOD.US) is bugging"). These were mostly real-time gripes with limited engagement (hundreds of likes/shares at most), highlighting tech glitches’ impact on UX.

App Store/Google Play ratings (4.3/5 and 4.2/5) stayed positive overall, but negatives cited slow support and transfer delays (e.g., "Very slow to transfer money into account"). New features like Gold Card and retirement accounts drew praise ("review before trade is one of the best features"), though users called for better stop-loss/take-profit tools and customer service.

While app issues amplified short-term frustration, full-year sentiment remains positive, with prediction markets and crypto features lauded.

Capital Markets & Regulation

Shares dipped 1.9% this week to ~$118-122 but are up 220% YTD. Analyst updates: Barclays raised its target to $171 (December), with median targets at $152 and consensus at "Moderate Buy" ($124.58 avg.; high of $180 from Citizens on November 7). Institutional holdings are strong—1,145 hedge funds hold HOOD (+86 QoQ), with total value rising. Ownership rates hit highs per December 24 data.

Regulatory updates: No new policies this week. Earlier SEC rollbacks of proposed PFOF (payment for order flow) rules (June) were Robinhood-friendly. The company announced plans to phase out crypto activities by 2026 (December 11, likely due to regulatory pressure), but no follow-up emerged. A February crypto probe closed without action. The stable regulatory backdrop supports prediction markets and crypto.

Assessment & Outlook

This week’s developments are neutral-to-positive for Robinhood’s long-term moat: App glitches exposed tech stability risks (potentially eroding short-term trust), but innovations like "HOOD Holidays" strengthen ecosystem flywheels, aiding Gold Card and prediction market penetration to build network effects. Growth trajectory-wise, strong full-year financials (revenue/profit growth) and institutional backing suggest 2026 expansion, though app reliability risks and competition (e.g., IB’s stablecoin move) warrant caution. Swift tech fixes could sustain high growth, with ambitions to evolve into a full-service financial platform. Monitor Q4 earnings (expected January) and crypto regulatory shifts.