Dreame's valuation is in a state of inversion

1. It looks like a reverse merger

Previously, I analyzed Ecovacs and Roborock. In fact, there are quite a few robotics stocks in the A-share market that have already achieved substantial performance without overpromising. Of course, some people say they won’t touch A-share robotics stocks, and I respect their choice. For someone who hates cilantro, what’s the difference between excellent cilantro and mediocre cilantro?

But in case you like cilantro, there have been quite a few reverse merger deals in robotics recently, with plenty of cilantro to go around. You could call this event-driven trading. In December 2025, Yu Hao, founder of Dreame Technology, acquired 54.90% of Jiamei Packaging (002969) for approximately 2.282 billion yuan through Zhuyue Hongzhi. For details, refer to Jiamei Packaging’s Detailed Equity Change Report disclosed on 12/16 and the announcement on 12/24.

For such a driving event, the secondary market would inevitably react like a knee-jerk reflex with consecutive limit-ups. Although Jiamei issued “three non-existences” in its 12/24 announcement—Zhuyue Hongzhi has no plans to change or significantly adjust the main business of the listed company within the next 12 months; no plans to sell, merge, or engage in joint ventures or asset swaps involving the listed company or its subsidiaries within the next 12 months; and no plans or arrangements for a backdoor listing via the listed company within the next 36 months—the market continued to push the stock up. It’s not that they don’t believe the 36-month no-backdoor promise, but rather that “no backdoor within 36 months” doesn’t preclude “injecting Dreame’s assets within 36 months.”

As for the possibility of injecting part of Dreame’s business (not necessarily all of it) into Jiamei, since the acquisition has happened and this is standard industry practice, I’d say judge for yourself. It’s hard for me to assign a probability, but I’ll offer some guidelines at the end for playing it by ear—because I don’t know either; I’m not an insider.

Compared to Jiamei Packaging, I’m more focused on Dreame Technology’s business potential to gauge the future value of its smart cleaning and AIoT businesses. Since it’s not a listed company, gathering information is challenging. From what I’ve gathered, Dreame’s core technology and products are relatively stable, with revenue, channels, and cash flow outperforming industry peers. For example, multiple sources suggest Dreame’s revenue is roughly equal to the combined revenue of Ecovacs and Roborock. At that scale, it could support a listed company worth hundreds of billions.

Note: The financial information about Dreame in this article is based on “targets, internal metrics, industry estimates, and market rumors” since it’s not a listed company, and not audited financial data.

2. Core Market Metrics

Combining some primary market information with public data from comparable secondary market companies, from an investor’s perspective, I’m most interested in Dreame’s high growth. This growth is rare in the industry (six consecutive years of revenue doubling), far exceeding its peers.

As mentioned earlier, Dreame’s revenue in 2024 was about 15 billion yuan, with expectations to reach 30 billion in 2025. If it hits 30 billion, its revenue would be “Dreame ≈ Ecovacs + Roborock.” But based purely on global market share for robot vacuums, IDC data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, Roborock had 21%, Ecovacs 14%, and Dreame 12.4%. Even with higher ASPs, robot vacuums alone shouldn’t be enough. However, IDC’s data is strong in North America, where Roborock has long collaborated with IDC. For other regions, GFK data shows that as of October 2025, Dreame ranked first in market share for robot vacuums in 22 countries and regions. In 12 countries, including Germany and Switzerland, its market share exceeded 40%, and in Belgium, it was over 60%.

If the ~30 billion revenue figure is accurate, there are two possibilities: either Dreame’s robot vacuum share is much higher than IDC estimates, or its other product lines are performing well. There are also reports that Dreame leads in market share outside North America, particularly in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Russian-speaking regions, with overseas revenue accounting for 65%. Additionally, Dreame commands a premium: in Q1 2025, its overseas robot vacuum ASP was $627, above the industry average.

The other possibility is strong sales from other product lines. Dreame has always had multiple product lines, including robot vacuums, mopping robots, vacuum cleaners, high-speed hair dryers, and robotic lawn mowers. For example, its robotic lawn mowers shipped over 100,000 units in six months (Industry Research estimates the 2025 shipment volume for robotic mowers at 1-1.5 million). They’re also top sellers on Amazon in key European markets like Germany and France. The global robotic mower market is projected to reach $6-10 billion by 2030.

Here’s a summary of key market and financial metrics:

3. Valuation Anchor: Tech Growth Model

For this deal to have potential, I’ll reiterate the earlier logic: there needs to be a valuation gap or inversion. Compared to A-share peers Ecovacs and Roborock, which had revenues of 12-13 billion yuan each in the first three quarters of 2025 (combined roughly equal to Dreame), if two facts hold—1. “Dreame’s revenue ≈ Ecovacs + Roborock,” and 2. The combined market cap of Ecovacs and Roborock can support hundreds of billions—then Jiamei Packaging, as a proxy for Dreame’s business scale, has a very high ceiling (Jiamei has already surged to 10 billion with a few limit-ups).

The problem is Jiamei Packaging is indeed a shell. Whether Dreame’s assets will be injected is something investors should watch closely, staying patient and avoiding wishful thinking:

1. Short-term: Focus on post-acquisition improvements to the core business. Jiamei Packaging may not be sexy, but its core business is an asset generating 100-200 million yuan in annual profit with decent growth. Think of it as the pickled ginger next to sushi—a palate cleanser. The main thing is whether there’s any direct collaboration with Dreame. No asset injection within 12 months doesn’t mean no collaboration.

2. Medium-term: The capitalization of Dreame’s smart business will directly determine market cap potential. I must emphasize the contingency—there’s no guarantee assets will be injected, but there are always clues.

3. Long-term: The long-term value depends on whether it can become a global leader in robotics technology platforms. This market will value robotics companies driven by “core components” enabling full-scenario evolution. Of course, without audited public data, I admit there’s some guesswork involved.

In conclusion, Jiamei Packaging is Yu Hao’s experiment in the secondary market. There’s a chance he’ll package Dreame’s smart cleaning business into it. If that happens, it could be a big winner. If not, I’d find it bizarre—what’s the point of a sterile packaging company? It’d be as weird as my dad entering the delivery room, only for the baby to come out later asking whether to save the operating room or the hospital.

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Note: This article does not constitute investment advice.