BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 01.12

Over the past week, the crypto market has been relatively flat, with BTC fluctuating around 91k and ETH around 3.1k. Perhaps the market is still waiting for the conclusion of this Thursday's crypto bill review to determine the direction. The market structure bill is a key component in advancing the implementation of the GENIUS Act. The current focus of contention is "stablecoin yield," and predictions from Polymarket also indicate that the bill is highly likely to pass, but the question is at what cost.

Apart from this, for BMNR, the shareholder meeting resolution on January 15 is even more critical, as it determines the ceiling for the company's future growth. The shareholder meeting will primarily vote on four proposals, the most important of which is Proposal 2, which seeks to increase the ATM equity financing limit from 500 million shares to 50 billion shares. The rationale for this increase has already been analyzed previously, so it won’t be reiterated here—everyone will bear the consequences of their own judgment.

I’d like to speculate on the impact of the voting results. Currently, BMNR passed the application for 500 million shares of ATM equity financing in June 2025 and has already used about 430 million shares, leaving less than 70 million shares. At the current stock price and ETH price, the maximum purchase would be 700,000 ETH. Without an increase in the limit, the 5% ETH accumulation target cannot be achieved. The potential outcomes are as follows:

• If rejected, the company's growth potential will be locked. Submitting a new proposal and waiting for a vote would take at least another six months, during which the inability to accumulate ETH on a large scale would mean missing market opportunities and losing liquidity. A rejection of management’s proposal would also signal that investors do not endorse the company’s strategy—an absolute negative.
• If approved, Tom Lee has already promised that the company will only conduct ATM financing when mNAV > 1. The company would resolve the financing limit issue in one go, ensuring ample resources to execute more investment plans and preparing for a future transfer to Nasdaq (regulatory arbitrage), which is more crypto/tech-friendly.

I suspect it’s highly likely to pass. For institutional investors, they’re betting on the company’s future growth potential—if they continue to hold shares, there’s no reason to vote against it. Retail investors might oppose it due to fears of share dilution, but many may not even participate in the vote. This situation gives brokers discretionary power. According to NYSE Rule 452, how brokers handle non-voting retail investors depends on the nature of the proposal:

• For Non-Routine matters: Such as mergers, controversial director elections, or executive compensation plans. If retail investors don’t vote, brokers cannot vote on their behalf.
• For Routine matters: Such as approving auditors or increasing authorized shares. If retail investors don’t vote, brokers have discretion—meaning they can vote on behalf of retail investors, with the unwritten rule being to vote in line with management’s recommendation.

Specifically for BMNR, the four proposals are bundled. The SEC filing clearly states that increasing authorized shares is a Routine matter, falling within the scope of broker discretionary voting. The other three proposals cannot be voted on by brokers, so everything has been meticulously designed by the company to ensure the passage of the most critical proposal—increasing authorized shares.

Moving forward, we’ll continue tracking mNAV to project extreme scenarios, with the next ETH accumulation update due on January 19.

Core assumptions: As of this Monday, BMNR updated its ETH holdings to 4.16 million, with a weekly increase of 242,000. The cash position grew to $988 million, while staking surged to 1.25 million, with 596,000 newly staked last week. mNAV currently stands at 1.02. BMNR’s aggressive staking progress has cleared the ETM unstaking queue, and Tom Lee has explicitly stated that MAVEN will be commercialized. Simultaneously, as the largest ETH holder and staking institution, BMNR will effectively function as an ETH central bank, offering stable yield services for institutional staking—this represents BMNR’s greatest potential moving forward.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.4k, mNAV would recover to 1.15, corresponding to a stock price of 38. If ETH drops to 2.9k, mNAV would remain at 1, corresponding to a stock price of 29. Thus, the extreme range is 29–38.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)