BMNR extreme value deduction 1.27
The speeches at the Davos Forum over the past week were brilliant. Besides AI, tokenization became a core topic. In 2016, the core topics of the Davos Forum were AI and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which also turned out to be the biggest opportunities of the past decade. By 2026, digital assets may become the core of future finance, gaining broader consensus among institutions and policymakers. The implementation of the Clear Act will see significant progress this week. Due to the snowstorm in the eastern U.S., the originally scheduled review of the Agriculture Committee bill on January 27 will be postponed to January 29. However, as previously analyzed, there are no major disagreements on this bill, and the probability of its passage is high. Additionally, after mid-January, the 13F filings of various institutions will gradually be disclosed. I am particularly interested in how the leading institutions that built positions in BMNR in Q3 operated during the crypto downturn in Q4.
Today, we got the first answer. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, managing ¥170 billion in assets, is one of Japan's largest asset management institutions. Sumitomo Mitsui opened a position of 3.78 million shares of BMNR in Q3 2025, and the latest 13F filing shows they increased their position to 4.91 million shares in Q4, a 30% increase. I will continue to monitor the position changes of institutions like JPMorgan, BlackRock, and ARK in BMNR. Next, we will perform extreme value projections by tracking mNAV, with the next update on coin accumulation progress due by February 2.
Core assumption: On Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.24 million coins, with 40,000 added last week. The cash position dropped to ¥680 million, including the completion of a ¥200 million investment in Mr. Beast. The staking progress increased to 2 million, with 170,000 newly staked last week, and mNAV rebounded to 0.98. Analysis of cash changes indicates that the 40,000 ETH purchased last week was funded by cash, without ATM financing, reflecting the management's operational discipline. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume dropped to ¥900 million, which is not typical for BMNR. With the surge in gold/silver and storage, most crypto stocks experienced liquidity declines. Over the past week, mNAV stabilized between 0.98 and 0.99. Currently, BMNR behaves more like an ETF tracking ETH proportionally, and a rebound in premiums will require improved liquidity and market sentiment. Progress in the Clear Act review this week may serve as a catalyst.
Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.2k, mNAV will rise to 1, corresponding to a stock price of 32. If ETH drops to 2.8k, mNAV will fall to 0.95, corresponding to a stock price of 26. Thus, the extreme range is 26–32.
Not investment advice.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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