I've re-examined the battlefield situation.

April is absolutely a crucial turning point.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cannot last long.

Once a blitzkrieg turns into a war of attrition,

Donald Trump's chances in the midterm elections will decline.

If oil prices remain high in April,

the inflation hurdle won't be solved even by changing the Fed Chair.

The rate cut trade for the second half of the year will need to be repriced.

But I don't think it will be that bad.

The short-term surge in oil prices

can be countered by tapping into the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve,

or negotiating with countries like Saudi Arabia to exchange unlimited oil production for security guarantees.

The surging oil prices will be brought down.

The more troublesome issue is clearing the mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is controlled by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

This is news that requires close attention.

If the Middle East conflict doesn't spread,

oil prices can be brought down after a short-term surge.

The negative news during this period is an opportunity to pick up cheap chips.

Waiting for the rate cut trade in the second half of the year.

Before the midterm elections, Trump will definitely inject liquidity into the stock market.