In every bull market, the market falls in love with a story.

In 2000, it was the internet changing the world; in 2021, it was the metaverse reshaping the future; and today, it's the space economy's turn.

I don't deny that SpaceX is a great company. On the contrary, it might be one of the most imaginative enterprises of the past two decades. But the greater the story, the more investors need to stay sober. The market's enthusiasm for SpaceX has recently approached frenzy. The stock price has been soaring, and forums are filled with voices saying you can't miss SpaceX after missing Nvidia. But there's a market rule: when everyone believes the future has only one direction, volatility is often already on the way. Don't forget, in just over ten days, a large number of chips held by early investors and institutions may enter the circulating market. History tells us that whether it's CRCL, Uber, Meta, or Amazon, they all experienced capital chasing and emotional euphoria in their early listing stages, but eventually, their stock prices went through a process of returning from dreams to reality, from stories to performance, and from sentiment to valuation. Many people aren't buying stocks; they're buying a future. They believe that in ten years, humans will migrate to Mars; that Starlink will cover the entire Earth and even the solar system; that robots will take on most of the work; that future lifestyles will be completely rewritten. These visions do sound thrilling. But I often think of one question. Robot technology has been developing for decades, and AI has been developing for so many years, yet until today, I still haven't seen a robot nanny that can help me buy groceries, cook, do laundry, clean, care for the elderly, and chat with me truly enter millions of households. We haven't even solved household chores on Earth, yet we're already discussing real estate prices on Mars.

This reminds me of a quote from Buffett: the most dangerous time for an investor is when they start substituting fantasy for cash flow. The market's favorite thing to do is to paint the future as incredibly beautiful at its peak. Because the most beautiful stories are often the easiest to make people overlook risks. Rockets can fly into space, but stock prices can't forever escape gravity. A great company and a great investment are often not the same concept.

A great company, if priced too high, can still be a terrible investment; while an ordinary company, if priced cheaply enough, can also bring excess returns. Truly mature investors can see the stars and the sea, yet also lower their heads to calculate valuations. They can believe in the future, yet also respect reality. So for SpaceX, I'm still bullish in the long term. But being bullish long-term doesn't mean chasing highs short-term. Being optimistic about the future doesn't mean ignoring risks. Dreams are worth looking up to, but investment needs to be down-to-earth. Because the biggest trap in the capital market has never been a bad story, but the good story everyone firmly believes in. When everyone is discussing how to get to Mars, perhaps the people really making money have already started considering when to return to Earth.$SpaceX(SPCX.US)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$Micron Tech(MU.US)