Mid-Year Wrap-Up: US Stocks Soar, Hong Kong Stocks Lag, A-Shares Party – A Quick Guide to Where the Money Is Flowing

One-sentence conclusion: The performance of US, Hong Kong, and A-shares in the first half of the year varied dramatically (Nasdaq +12%, Hang Seng Tech -22%, 362 A-share stocks doubled), but they all follow the same underlying rule—global capital is only willing to pay for assets with "high AI content and the ability to deliver on earnings." Understanding this yardstick will tell you why the stocks you hold are rising or falling, and what to watch for in the second half of the year.
Why are the three markets measured by the "same yardstick"?
US stocks surged last night, with the spotlight not on the most famous NVIDIA, but on memory chip stocks (SanDisk +10.89%, AMD +7.68%, NVIDIA only +2.63%)—because memory is in short supply and prices are rising, making earnings visible.
The same is true for A-shares: The Shanghai Composite only rose 3.2% in half a year, but 362 stocks in the AI manufacturing chain doubled. The 22% drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index may seem terrible, but it's actually because the proportion of AI hardware within it is too low (~14%), dragged down by internet and EV stocks, not because AI itself is weak.
Three markets, one story: money is moving towards places with "high AI content and calculable earnings."
What you should do
· Discovery: The three markets' performances differ, but the driving force is the same—the market is only paying for AI content that can deliver on earnings; assets that are pure storytelling with no earnings are being abandoned.
· Understanding: The biggest gains are in the "most scarce and hardest to expand production" memory and upstream equipment/materials (valuations supported by real price increases), not the most famous leaders; the hard tech stocks in Hong Kong that were wrongly punished by the index may be valuation bargains.
· Trading (for reference only): The cost-effectiveness of chasing after spot memory stocks that surged in a single day is declining; the upstream equipment and materials in the supply chain are more worthy of research. Two risk signals must be closely watched—VIX is only 16.45 (the market is underpricing negative news, and Thursday's US non-farm payrolls are the trigger), and the A-share interim report window opens this week (doubling stocks without earnings will be exposed for what they are).

$Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US)