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One-sentence conclusion: The performance of US, Hong Kong, and A-shares in the first half was worlds apart (the Nasdaq rose 12% in six months, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 22%, and 362 A-share stocks doubled), but the underlying logic is the same — global capital is only willing to pay for assets with "high AI content and the ability to deliver on earnings." Understand this ruler, and you'll know why the stocks you hold are rising or falling, and what to watch in the second half. Why are the three markets said to be using "the same ruler"? US stocks surged last night, and the main players weren't the most famous NVIDIA, but memory chip stocks (SanDisk +10.89% in a single day, AMD +7.68%...

First off: the Nasdaq (a major U.S. index dominated by tech stocks) surged 2.07% last night, but this isn't a broad-based tech rebound. The real gains came from four mega-caps: Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Meta, while chip stocks (semiconductors) actually fell, and the Russell 2000, representing small and mid-cap companies, barely moved. Why it matters to you: If you see the Nasdaq surging and want to buy chip or tech ETFs, you might be going in the opposite direction—it was precisely chips that fell yesterday. Why is that? The Nasdaq is weighted by company size, so a few giants rising can lift the entire index...

Last Friday, U.S. tech stocks plunged (the Nasdaq fell for five consecutive days, and SoftBank dropped 12.5% in a single day), triggered by news that OpenAI is delaying its IPO until 2027, raising market concerns about an AI bubble burst. However, on the same day, ten out of the major U.S. stock sectors were rising, and the VIX (the fear gauge) fell instead of rising—this looks more like capital is "moving house" between sectors rather than a comprehensive market crash. Why is this relevant to you? If you are heavily invested in AI or chip-related stocks or funds, this correction might not be over yet; but if you are worried about a "full-fledged bear market"...

On 6/25, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 (the lowest since 2024), Ethereum dropped 3.5%, but on the same day, Micron (the leader in memory chips) surged about 15% after hours, and A-share memory stocks collectively hit the daily limit up. This is not a case of "the entire market is falling," but rather money flowing from "assets with only stories" to "assets with real performance." Why such a stark contrast on the same day? Because the market is being "picky." Assets like Bitcoin rely on the story of "digital gold, will rise in the future"—they have no cash flow (unlike companies with revenue and profits), and their value depends entirely on what the next person is willing to pay...

Let me start with the conclusion: Gold fell below $4,000 last night (intraday low around $3,964, the lowest since November 2025), silver plunged 7.4%, oil prices dropped 5%, and Bitcoin fell below $61,000. This isn't simply a case of "the war is over, no need for a safe haven anymore." Instead, it's a broad repricing of non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Why does this concern you? If you hold gold, silver, or related ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), this decline might not be over yet. A piece of data tonight (US PCE inflation) will determine whether this is just a pause or the bottom...

Conclusion first: Last night, US memory chip stocks plummeted—Micron down 13%, South Korea's SK hynix and Samsung both down 12%, and the South Korean stock market triggered two circuit breakers in a single day (a mechanism that halts trading after a sharp drop to a certain extent). But don't rush to shout "The AI bubble has burst." My view is: This looks more like a "deleveraging" (forced selling to close positions by leveraged funds), not a deterioration in company fundamentals. If you hold chip stocks or are thinking of bottom-fishing, this directly determines your next move...

Conclusion first: Last night, the U.S. stock market only fell slightly (S&P -0.37%), but there was intense internal divergence—several tech giants (Google down 6% at one point, Amazon down 4%) were heavily sold, while the semiconductor sector (SMH up 3.67%) and small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 up 0.83%, hitting a record high) surged. This indicates that capital is not leaving the market but "rotating": from the big companies pouring money into AI to the chip companies supplying AI and the pro-cyclical small-caps. What it means for you: This is not a crash, you can follow, but do so with light positions and don't chase highs...

First, the conclusion: On June 18th, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, led by chip stocks (the semiconductor sector ETF SMH rose 3.67%). But what's different this time is that the Federal Reserve is pivoting towards interest rate hikes, no longer "flooding the market with liquidity to prop it up." In other words, this round of new highs is being sustained by the narrative that "AI will still spend a ton of money on chips," not by loose capital. What it means for you: You can chase it, but there's no safety net beneath your feet, so you need to control your position size. Why is this market so strong? On Wednesday, the new Fed Chairman sounded hawkish, and the stock market plunged. On Thursday, a piece of news about "Apple looking to have Intel make its chips"...

First, the conclusion: Last night, the new Fed Chairman Warsh held a meeting and turned hawkish (hinting at possible rate hikes within the year), leading to a sharp drop in US tech stocks. The Nasdaq fell 1.34%, and Meta once dropped 5%. Strangely, on the same day, ASML, which makes chip-making equipment, rose about 4%, and the semiconductor sector as a whole was very resilient. This indicates: the market is not abandoning AI, it's picking winners within AI—this determines which types you should buy and which to avoid. Why are tech platforms falling? Companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, their stock prices are expensive based on the story that "AI will make a lot of money in the next decade"...

Let's get straight to the point: last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the stock index of 30 major US companies) hit a new all-time high, reaching 51,999 points. However, I'm actually more cautious—because on the same day, the VIX index, which measures market fear, didn't fall but rose instead, and tech and chip stocks were still plummeting. This "new high" isn't due to everyone becoming more optimistic; it's money seeking safety. If this recent high makes you want to chase it, hear me out first—it might save you from paying a costly lesson. Why did the Dow rise? The US and Iran ceasefire, the sharp drop in oil prices (Brent crude fell below $80) made people think inflationary pressures have eased...

Let's get straight to the point: Four days ago, I predicted that SpaceX (ticker SPCX) would "break issue price" (fall below the $135 issue price) upon its listing. Instead, it not only didn't fall but also rose to $192.5, reaching a market cap of $2.5 trillion, up 43% in four days. I was wrong. But what I got wrong was "when it would fall," not "whether it's actually expensive" — these two things determine whether you should chase it now. If the recent surge has made you itch to chase SPCX or tech stocks, listen to my lesson first; it might save you from paying tuition. First...

Let's get straight to the point: Over the weekend, the US and Iran reached a peace framework agreement, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent -4.15%), while gold rose 2.37%, silver rose 3.31%, and the VIX index, which measures market panic, fell 9% in a single day. It looks like a broad-based market move signaling "inflation is set to fall, good for risk assets." But my advice is very direct: Don't chase gold and silver at their highs now. First, wait for the Fed meeting this Wednesday (6/17) — that meeting is what will really determine whether money is expensive or not. Why does this concern you? If you hold stocks or funds related to gold and silver, the big gains over these two days can easily make people feel the urge to chase. But this rally...

Conclusion first: SpaceX is listing on NASDAQ tonight (ticker SPCX, issue price $135, valuation $1.77 trillion, the largest IPO in U.S. stock market history). My advice is not to participate in the first-day frenzy. The reasons can be condensed into three numbers: 95, 30%, and 82%. Even if you don't buy a single share, this matters to you—its performance tonight will affect the trajectory of all the tech stocks in your portfolio. The first number: 95. SpaceX's valuation is 95 times its annual revenue (this metric is called the "price-to-sales ratio," calculated by dividing market cap by revenue)...

Let's get straight to the point: Last night, US stocks fell sharply (Nasdaq -1.98%), China's A-share ChiNext board fell 2.70%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index only fell 1.36%, making it the most resilient among the three markets. However, the reason for this resilience is not that Hong Kong stocks are 'immune', but that mainland capital has been continuously buying through the Stock Connect (for Hong Kong) - net purchases have already exceeded HKD 280 billion so far this year. The key point is: this money is buying individual stocks like Tencent and high-dividend stocks, not the entire index. So my advice is straightforward: now is not a good time to buy the Hang Seng Tech ETF. If you want to participate, buy 'the individual stocks being continuously bought', not the index...

To put it bluntly: The global rebound in chip stocks over the past few days (South Korea's stock market +8% in one day, China's ChiNext +3.93%) is built on a hidden premise - the Fed won't raise interest rates. Tonight, Beijing time 20:30, the release of the US May CPI (Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation) is here to test this premise: market expectations are 4.2%, a noticeable increase from last month's 3.8%. If you hold NVIDIA, chip ETFs, or A-share computing power stocks...

If you're only watching CPI tonight, you might miss the more important story of the week—and possibly buy silver at the wrong price. Silver closed up +6.93% on 5/11, while gold only rose +0.39%, a difference of 17 times. But this isn't telling you to buy tonight—in the next three minutes, I'll tell you why this story is still relevant, but you shouldn't chase this price. First, let's see what exactly happened. After the US market closed on May 11th (Monday), these two numbers came out: Silver closed at $85.89, up 6.93%. Gold closed at $4747, up 0.52%...

I won't add to my position on Monday, and I won't make a move before 20:30 on Tuesday either—waiting for the April CPI data to come out first. The reasoning is that last Friday's double record-high close for US stocks (S&P 7398, Nasdaq 26247, SMH +3.43%) priced in a scenario where inflation doesn't go haywire, but the reveal for this scenario is on Tuesday night. If you chased any high-valuation tech stocks on Friday, in the next three minutes I'll tell you—what you're actually betting on, and whether you should pull back your position a bit. First, the logic behind last Friday's rise is sound. Let's finish the bulls' argument, because these reasons are all true...

If you have small-cap stocks or biotech ETFs in your account, you might be feeling much worse than what the indices show today. The S&P only fell 0.38%, but the Russell 2000 fell 1.63% and the biotech ETF IBB fell 2.14%. In the next three minutes, I'll tell you why this is happening and whether you should act. First, let's see what actually happened. On the surface, last night's US stock market was just a normal minor pullback...

If you've been buying GOOGL or planning to sell NVDA lately because of the news about Anthropic's $200 billion contract, I suggest you pause for a moment. The other side of this contract is: 40% of Google Cloud's revenue over the next 5 years is bet on Anthropic alone, and the cash Anthropic itself has to pay Google annually is almost equal to its entire annualized revenue. This isn't a partnership; it's two companies betting on each other's survival. Only by understanding this layer will you know what risks lie behind GOOGL continuing to rise and NVDA continuing to fall...

If you hold any of Microsoft, Amazon, or Google, something changed the relative positions of the three companies tonight—but the market only reacted halfway. On April 27th Eastern Time, Microsoft and OpenAI rewrote their cooperation agreement: OpenAI can start selling its models on AWS (Amazon Web Services) and Google Cloud within a few weeks, no longer exclusively on Azure (Microsoft Cloud). Microsoft's stock fell nearly 3% intraday, Alphabet rose 1.5%, and Amazon was basically flat. What it means for you: If you're holding Microsoft...

I didn't chase energy stocks today, but I'm starting to seriously consider the price point for my next buy-in. The reason is an anomalous signal: oil prices surged 3% last night (Brent to $98.48, WTI to $92.13), but the energy sector ETF XLE only rose 0.18%. If you hold XOM, CVX, or XLE, this divergence means your next decision can no longer rely solely on oil prices. First thing: the relationship between XLE and oil prices is changing. XLE's correlation with oil prices has been very high over the past three years—it rose when oil rose, and fell when oil fell...

I didn't adjust my positions today, but spent the entire afternoon researching one thing. Marvell rose 6% intraday to hit a new high, while Broadcom fell below $400, both triggered by the same news on the same day. The news is: Google is in talks with Marvell to co-design two new AI chips—one memory processing unit and one new-generation TPU. Google's original TPU partner was Broadcom, and the two companies have collaborated for over a decade, just extending their contract to 2031 last month. If you hold NVIDIA or Broadcom, or are hesitating about adding Marvell—the next three minutes will give you a starting point to reassess...

I was watching two numbers today, one is AMD's 12-day winning streak, and the other is Netflix's -10%. One has risen for 12 consecutive days, setting a 20-year record, while the other plummeted 10% after the close on the same day. If you've been chasing gains over the past week, looking at these two events together is much more important than looking at them separately. First, let's talk about how AMD got here. AMD has risen for 12 consecutive days, up 37%, adding $101 billion in market cap. From its low of $83 this year to $278—more than tripling. This rally has two driving forces. The first is geopolitical—after the US-Iran ceasefire, the entire market is Risk-on...

I almost wanted to buy today. I didn't buy in the end. IonQ rose 20% in a day, D-Wave rose 15%—but the real winner in this frenzy is NVIDIA, not these quantum companies. If you're tempted to chase quantum concept stocks today, the following matter will determine whether your money is in the wrong place. First, let's clarify what happened today: NVIDIA released an open-source quantum AI model called Ising. (Quantum computing: a new generation of computing that uses quantum mechanics principles for calculations, theoretically much faster than traditional computers in specific tasks...

I didn't dare chase this nine-day rally. The Nasdaq's nine consecutive gains, with the VIX rising from 22 to 41, have everyone saying the AI bull market is back. But the Fed announced tonight that it will 'significantly reduce' bond purchases after April, and hardly anyone noticed. First, let's talk about how today's gains came about. The Nasdaq's nine-day rally is the longest streak in two years. The S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the US-Iran conflict. The semiconductor index SMH (an ETF tracking chip stocks) has climbed above 9000 points. The most obvious sign is that capital is moving elsewhere...