This year is like this ≠ Every year is like this

There is demand ≠ Supply will always fall short of demand

A good company ≠ A good price

Moat > Cyclicality

If A doesn't expand production, B will.

Everyone knows it's impossible to sell at this price forever. If there is future demand, just ensure you can continue to supply when the time comes.

What if the price gets driven down by competition?

No choice. If you don't expand production, you won't even make money at the lower price later. Besides, the demand has also somewhat lifted the cycle and profits. Between making no profit and making less profit, the latter is definitely better. So in the end, A, B, and C all expand production.

What if no one expands production?

Unlikely. It's hard for a sector with excess profits but no strong moat to avoid being considered by competitors and outsiders.

What if everyone is united and peacefully earns a premium?

That would only force customers to bear the pressure in the short term, leading them to research ways to do less business with you in the long run.

Take 🇮🇷 as an example. After the Strait incident, everyone will consider multiple transportation solutions long-term to avoid similar future risks. You can't be held hostage like that again next time.

Everyone in business knows it's wrong to cheat customers. Squeezing Party A dry and playing a pure trade surplus game is unsustainable. Letting the other party develop sustainably and make money is better for both sides in the long run.

Using institutional hype as an opportunity to voice a contrarian view. If you don't agree, you're right.

I'm not bearish. I'd hold it too if my cost basis is low enough. But it takes real courage to rush in at this price level.

Before buying, think more about the moat and the price first.