The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and cuts on the stock market does not appear to be entirely linear at present. The current market consensus expects one rate hike this year, but given the current situation, there is a certain probability that Waller will delay both hiking and cutting rates this year. However, if economic data fails to improve, keeping rates unchanged could turn good news into bad news, shifting focus to concerns about inflation and the Fed's independence, which might instead cause the stock market to fall.

Nevertheless, I still lean towards betting that Waller cannot shake the institutional foundations of the Federal Reserve, just as Trump cannot shake the constitutional foundations of the United States. Based on this bet, $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) may enter the observation phase. This is because long-term US Treasuries are being sold off due to dual skepticism regarding the Fed's hawkish stance and its perceived loss of independence, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. However, it should be noted that long-term US Treasuries, due to monetary expansion, belong to asset classes with a long-term downward bias; entering observation now is essentially betting on a rebound under extreme circumstances.