<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ：<strong>AMZN</strong>）目前接近历史高位，但如果你担心这是亚马逊股票逆转的前奏，那就想错了。没有必要认为股价已经触顶。</p>
<p>尽管存在各种不确定性，但当前的牛市似乎有望继续。除非出现意外的市场调整或黑天鹅事件，整个市场的稳步上涨将继续推动亚马逊股价上涨。</p>
<p>更重要的是，针对这家电商和云计算巨头的公司特定催化剂可能有助于推动股价在未来十二个月内大幅飙升。</p>
<p>我在谈论股价将上涨至 200 美元，然后 225 美元，甚至可能在 2025 年达到 250 美元。</p>
<p>有趣的是，这种上涨很可能不是由人工智能或其他增长趋势驱动的，而是由另一个积极因素推动，这个因素在亚马逊身上已经存在了相当长的时间。</p>
<h2>亚马逊股票：阻力和波动不会沉没这艘船</h2>
<p>是的，最近关于亚马逊股价触顶的担忧不仅仅是技术层面的。表面上，最近的头条新闻表明阻力，或者至少是波动，正在出现，这可能会影响未来的运营结果。</p>
<p>如果这些因素影响未来几个季度的财务表现，理论上可能会对亚马逊股票的未来表现产生负面影响。</p>
<p>那么，有哪些新出现的阻力和波动？这里有一个来自电商领域的很好例子：亚马逊仓库工人可能进一步组成工会。</p>
<p>到目前为止，只有纽约州史泰登岛的一个亚马逊设施组建了工会。然而，曾经独立代表该设施仓库工人的工会刚刚加入国际兄弟会。</p>
<p>这可能标志着兄弟会加大努力，组织其他设施的工人。</p>
<p>更重要的是，对于亚马逊的云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS），人们开始担心这个公司的摇钱树部门的利润率下降。</p>
<p>最近，贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安认为，更高的人工智能相关支出可能导致今年晚些时候利润率收缩。尽管存在一些挑战，但不要指望它们会沉没这艘船。很可能它们将被以下积极因素所抵消。</p>
<h2>仍在 “兑现支票”</h2>
<p>我曾经认为，亚马逊股票的一个主要催化剂是公司努力减缓增长速度。这导致了利润能力的显著提高。</p>
<p>过去，亚马逊优先考虑扩大这一部门的规模，而不是将其以最大化的利润率运营。</p>
<p>当然，作为零售业的主导者，不仅仅是我预计公司将 “兑现支票”，提高电商的利润率。</p>
<p>正如美国银行的分析师最近所说，亚马逊的零售利润率正在扩大。尽管对 AWS 利润率持悲观态度，前述的贝尔德分析师对亚马逊零售业务的利润率扩张持乐观态度。</p>
<p>据塞巴斯蒂安称，亚马逊的北美零售业务的利润率可能在 2027 年上升至 10%，而 2023 年为 4%。该分析师还预计，亚马逊的国际电商业务将持续盈利。</p>
<p>再加上公司利润率最高的部门之一——广告的增长，很容易看到未来几个季度的业绩达到甚至超过预期。</p>
<p>卖方预测显示，今年亚马逊的盈利将增长 18.3%，最高预测将使每股收益（<strong>EPS</strong>）接近 7 美元。2026 年的预测显示更高的增长。</p>
<h2>结论：AMZN 仍然处于买入区间</h2>
<p>亚马逊股票可能继续飙升，而无需过分依赖多重扩张。唯一需要的是业绩超出预期，或者分析师上调他们对 2025 年和 2026 年的预测。</p>
<p>换句话说，仅仅通过与增加的收益同步，亚马逊股票就可以实现从 200 美元到 225 美元到 250 美元的飞跃。如果你今天入场，这将代表总体约 32.2% 的涨幅。</p>
<p>在更长的时间范围内，亚马逊可能会保持领先地位。除了 “兑现支票” 利润率扩张的催化剂外，公司努力利用生成式人工智能增长热潮带来的潜在回报也有助于推动发展。</p>
<p>综合考虑，结论很明确。今天每股价格接近 190 美元的亚马逊股票仍然处于买入区间。</p>
<p><em>在发布日期，Thomas Niel 没有持有（直接或间接）本文提到的证券中的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点属于作者本人，受到 InvestorPlace.com</em> _发布指南_的约束。</p>
<p>InvestorPlace.com 的撰稿人 Thomas Niel 自 2016 年以来一直为基于网络的出版物撰写单支股票分析。</p>
<p>技术、人工智能、云计算、消费者自由裁量权、零售、电子商务、通讯、媒体、流媒体</p>

瑞丰动力

<p>亚马逊的股价预计将在 2025 年达到每股 250 美元，这要归功于当前的牛市和公司特定的催化剂。尽管可能会面临工会化和云计算部门利润率降低等潜在阻力，但预计亚马逊的盈利能力将会改善。分析师们预计零售业务的利润率将扩张，国际电商领域将保持稳定盈利。随着强劲的盈利增长预期，亚马逊股价可能会继续上涨</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>AMZN</strong>) is holding tight near all-time highs, yet if you’re concerned that this is the prelude to an Amazon stock reversal, think again. There’s no need to assume that shares are topping out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ：<strong>AMZN</strong>）目前接近历史高位，但如果你担心这是亚马逊股票逆转的前奏，那就想错了。没有必要认为股价已经触顶。</p>
</div><p>Despite various uncertainties, the current bull market appears likely to continue. Barring an unforeseen market correction or black swan event, the broad market’s steady climb will keep AMZN climbing higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在各种不确定性，但当前的牛市似乎有望继续。除非出现意外的市场调整或黑天鹅事件，整个市场的稳步上涨将继续推动亚马逊股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>That’s not all. Company-specific catalysts for this e-commerce and cloud computing giant could help to drive an outsized leap for shares over the next twelve months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，针对这家电商和云计算巨头的公司特定催化剂可能有助于推动股价在未来十二个月内大幅飙升。</p>
</div><p>I’m talking a move to $200, then $225, then perhaps even up to $250 per share by 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在谈论股价将上涨至 200 美元，然后 225 美元，甚至可能在 2025 年达到 250 美元。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly enough, such a move higher will most likely be driven not by AI or some other growth trend, but by another positive factor that has been in motion with AMZN for quite some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，这种上涨很可能不是由人工智能或其他增长趋势驱动的，而是由另一个积极因素推动，这个因素在亚马逊身上已经存在了相当长的时间。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon Stock: Headwinds and Hiccups Will Not Sink This Ship</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊股票：阻力和波动不会沉没这艘船</h2>
</div><p>Yes, recent concerns about AMZN peaking in price go beyond just technicals. On the surface, recent headlines suggest headwinds, or at the very least hiccups, are emerging, which could affect operating results going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，最近关于亚马逊股价触顶的担忧不仅仅是技术层面的。表面上，最近的头条新闻表明阻力，或者至少是波动，正在出现，这可能会影响未来的运营结果。</p>
</div><p>If these factors affect fiscal performance in the coming quarters, in theory it would likely have a negative impact on the future performance of Amazon stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些因素影响未来几个季度的财务表现，理论上可能会对亚马逊股票的未来表现产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>So, what are some emerging headwinds and hiccups? Here’s a good example from the e-commerce segment: possible further unionization of Amazon’s warehouse workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，有哪些新出现的阻力和波动？这里有一个来自电商领域的很好例子：亚马逊仓库工人可能进一步组成工会。</p>
</div><p>So far, only one Amazon facility, in Staten Island, New York, has unionized. However, the formerly-independent union representing warehouse workers at the facility has just affiliated with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，只有纽约州史泰登岛的一个亚马逊设施组建了工会。然而，曾经独立代表该设施仓库工人的工会刚刚加入国际兄弟会。</p>
</div><p>This could mark the start of ramped-up efforts by the Teamsters to organize workers at other facilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能标志着兄弟会加大努力，组织其他设施的工人。</p>
</div><p>That’s not all. With Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s cloud computing unit, concerns are emerging about reduced margins for this cash cow segment for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，对于亚马逊的云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS），人们开始担心这个公司的摇钱树部门的利润率下降。</p>
</div><p>Recently, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian argued that higher AI-related expenses could lead to margin contraction later this year. That said, while there are some challenges, don’t expect them to sink this ship. Chances are they will be outweighed by the following positives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安认为，更高的人工智能相关支出可能导致今年晚些时候利润率收缩。尽管存在一些挑战，但不要指望它们会沉没这艘船。很可能它们将被以下积极因素所抵消。</p>
</div><h2>Still ‘Cashing the Check’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍在 “兑现支票”</h2>
</div><p>Previously, I have argued that a major catalyst for Amazon stock has been the company’s efforts to take its foot off the growth gas pedal. This has resulted in outsized improvements in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我曾经认为，亚马逊股票的一个主要催化剂是公司努力减缓增长速度。这导致了利润能力的显著提高。</p>
</div><p>In the past, Amazon prioritized the scaling up of this segment over running it at maximized profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，亚马逊优先考虑扩大这一部门的规模，而不是将其以最大化的利润率运营。</p>
</div><p>Still, of course, a dominant player in retailing, it’s not just me that expects the company’s to “cash the check,” raising margins at e-commerce in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，作为零售业的主导者，不仅仅是我预计公司将 “兑现支票”，提高电商的利润率。</p>
</div><p>As analysts at BofA recently argued, retail margins at Amazon are expanding. While downbeat on AWS margins, the aforementioned Baird analyst is bullish about margin expansion with Amazon’s retail business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如美国银行的分析师最近所说，亚马逊的零售利润率正在扩大。尽管对 AWS 利润率持悲观态度，前述的贝尔德分析师对亚马逊零售业务的利润率扩张持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>Per Sebastian, Amazon’s North American retail business could see its margin rise to 10% by 2027, up from 4% in 2023. The analyst also anticipates Amazon’s international e-commerce business becoming consistently profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据塞巴斯蒂安称，亚马逊的北美零售业务的利润率可能在 2027 年上升至 10%，而 2023 年为 4%。该分析师还预计，亚马逊的国际电商业务将持续盈利。</p>
</div><p>Add in growth from one of the company’s highest-margin segments, advertising, and it’s easy to see results meeting, if not beating, expectations in the quarters ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上公司利润率最高的部门之一——广告的增长，很容易看到未来几个季度的业绩达到甚至超过预期。</p>
</div><p>Sell-side forecasts call for Amazon’s earnings to rise by 18.3% this year, with the higher end of forecasts calling for earnings per share ( <strong>EPS</strong>) nearing $7. 2026 forecasts call for even higher growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖方预测显示，今年亚马逊的盈利将增长 18.3%，最高预测将使每股收益（<strong>EPS</strong>）接近 7 美元。2026 年的预测显示更高的增长。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line: AMZN Remains in the Buy Zone</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论：AMZN 仍然处于买入区间</h2>
</div><p>Amazon shares could keep on surging, without having to lean too heavily on multiple expansion. All that’s needed is for results to beat expectations, or for analysts to upwardly revise their 2025 and 2026 forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊股票可能继续飙升，而无需过分依赖多重扩张。唯一需要的是业绩超出预期，或者分析师上调他们对 2025 年和 2026 年的预测。</p>
</div><p>In other words, simply by moving in tandem with increased earnings, AMZN could make the $200 to $225 to $250 leap. This would represent a total of around 32.2%, if you were to enter a position today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，仅仅通过与增加的收益同步，亚马逊股票就可以实现从 200 美元到 225 美元到 250 美元的飞跃。如果你今天入场，这将代表总体约 32.2% 的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Over an even longer time frame, Amazon could stay an outperformer. Besides the “cash the check” margin expansion catalyst, the potential payoff from its efforts to capitalize on the generative artificial intelligence growth boom also stands to help move the needle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更长的时间范围内，亚马逊可能会保持领先地位。除了 “兑现支票” 利润率扩张的催化剂外，公司努力利用生成式人工智能增长热潮带来的潜在回报也有助于推动发展。</p>
</div><p>Put it all together, and there is a clear verdict. At just under $190 per share today, Amazon stock remains in the buy zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合考虑，结论很明确。今天每股价格接近 190 美元的亚马逊股票仍然处于买入区间。</p>
</div><p><em>On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com</em> <em>Publishing Guidelines</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在发布日期，Thomas Niel 没有持有（直接或间接）本文提到的证券中的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点属于作者本人，受到 InvestorPlace.com</em> _发布指南_的约束。</p>
</div><p>Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>InvestorPlace.com 的撰稿人 Thomas Niel 自 2016 年以来一直为基于网络的出版物撰写单支股票分析。</p>
</div><p>Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, Consumer Discretionary, Retail, E-Commerce, Communications, Media, Streaming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术、人工智能、云计算、消费者自由裁量权、零售、电子商务、通讯、媒体、流媒体</p>
</div>

亚马逊股票价格预测：探讨 AMZN 在 2025 年达到 250 美元的路径