<p><strong>墨式烧烤</strong>(CMG -0.52%) 股票在过去五年中上涨约 340%，而 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 85%。这家快餐连锁餐厅连续给投资者留下深刻印象，其强劲增长、持续扩张和不断提高的利润率备受赞誉。</p>
<p>如今，该股票可能看起来昂贵，市盈率达到了 57 倍，但通过四张简单的图表来看它的增长故事就足以判断是否仍值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 持续开设餐厅</h2>
<p>与 <strong>麦当劳</strong> 不同，后者在 2006 年将墨式烧烤剥离，并大部分收入来自特许经营费用，墨式烧烤直接拥有并经营其所有餐厅。这种商业模式更需要资本投入，但它使公司能够严格控制供应链，保持更好的质量控制措施，并在不依赖特许经营者的情况下自由扩张。</p>
<p>墨式烧烤的新餐厅开设速度比许多同行要快得多。其年末店铺数量从 2018 年的 2,491 家增至 2023 年的 3,437 家，公司计划今年开设 285 至 315 家新店。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
<h2>2. 令人印象深刻的同店销售增长</h2>
<p>一些餐厅开设大量新店以提升销售额，但随后未能在成熟阶段增长同店销售额。因此，当一个餐厅连锁企业具有正收入增长但同店销售增长为负时，通常是一个警示信号。</p>
<p>墨式烧烤再次脱颖而出的领域之一就是这一点。除了每年开设新店外，其同店销售额持续增长。这一关键行业指标甚至在 2020 年疫情爆发初期上升，得益于强劲的数字销售，随后在接下来的三年内继续上升。管理层预计 2024 年同店销售额将实现中高个位数增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
<h2>3. 扩大餐厅级别的运营利润率</h2>
<p>过去两年，餐饮行业面临食品和劳动力成本上涨的严峻挑战。但在 2020 年疫情期间下滑后，墨式烧烤的餐厅级别运营利润率在接下来的三年内扩大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
<p>墨式烧烤通过提高菜单价格和开设更多的驶入式 Chipotlanes 来抵消通货膨胀压力，加速订单量。公司预计今年将在超过 80% 的新店开设 Chipotlanes。</p>
<h2>4. 持续的营收和盈利增长</h2>
<p>墨式烧烤的新店开设、稳定的同店销售增长和扩大的利润率使其在过去五年中实现比麦当劳和 <strong>百胜中国</strong> 等主要快餐连锁企业更强劲的营收和盈利增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png"/></p>
<p>来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计墨式烧烤的营收将以 14% 的复合年增长率增长，其每股收益将以 22% 的复合年增长率增加。这种增长将受益于数字订单的扩张（在 2024 年第一季度占总收入的 36.5%）、其忠诚计划的粘性以及在欧洲的扩张。</p>
<p>相比之下，分析师预计麦当劳和百胜中国在同一时期的营收和盈利增长仅为个位数。</p>
<h2>现在是购买墨式烧烤的正确时机吗？</h2>
<p>墨式烧烤的业务仍在全力运转，但其许多增长已经融入了其估值中。麦当劳的市盈率仅为 21 倍，而百胜的前瞻倍数略高，为 23 倍。因此，墨式烧烤股票可能会经历波动，特别是如果其同店销售增长放缓或利润率下降。</p>
<p>目前，投资者仍可在墨式烧烤股票上小幅投资，因为该公司正准备在 6 月 26 日进行 50 比 1 的股票分拆。然而，与其在当前水平全力以赴不如在几个月或几个季度内分批定投这一增长机会。</p>

墨式烧烤

<p>墨式烧烤（Chipotle Mexican Grill）的股票在过去五年中取得了显著增长，这是由于持续的餐厅开业、令人印象深刻的同店销售增长、扩大的利润率以及强劲的营收和盈利增长所推动的。然而，该股票可能过于昂贵，并且可能会经历波动。投资者可以考虑采用分批定投的方式逐步建仓该股，而不是一次性全部买入</p>

<p><strong>Chipotle Mexican Grill</strong>(CMG -0.52%) stock has rallied about 340% over the past five years as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> rose 85%. The fast-casual restaurant chain repeatedly impressed investors with its robust growth, consistent expansion, and rising margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>墨式烧烤</strong>(CMG -0.52%) 股票在过去五年中上涨约 340%，而 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 85%。这家快餐连锁餐厅连续给投资者留下深刻印象，其强劲增长、持续扩张和不断提高的利润率备受赞誉。</p>
</div><p>Today, the stock may seem expensive at 57 times forward earnings estimates, but a look at its growth story through four simple charts is enough to see if it's still worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，该股票可能看起来昂贵，市盈率达到了 57 倍，但通过四张简单的图表来看它的增长故事就足以判断是否仍值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fwoman-checks-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Consistent restaurant openings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 持续开设餐厅</h2>
</div><p>Unlike <strong>McDonald's</strong>, which spun off Chipotle in 2006 and generates most of its revenue from franchise fees, Chipotle directly owns and operates all of its restaurants. That business model is more capital-intensive, but it allows the company to tightly control its supply chain, maintain better quality-control measures, and freely expand without relying on franchisees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 <strong>麦当劳</strong> 不同，后者在 2006 年将墨式烧烤剥离，并大部分收入来自特许经营费用，墨式烧烤直接拥有并经营其所有餐厅。这种商业模式更需要资本投入，但它使公司能够严格控制供应链，保持更好的质量控制措施，并在不依赖特许经营者的情况下自由扩张。</p>
</div><p>Chipotle is opening new restaurants at a much faster pace than many of its peers as well. Its number of year-end stores rose from 2,491 in 2018 to 3,437 in 2023, and the company plans to open 285 to 315 new locations this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤的新餐厅开设速度比许多同行要快得多。其年末店铺数量从 2018 年的 2,491 家增至 2023 年的 3,437 家，公司计划今年开设 285 至 315 家新店。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fnumber-of-year-end-restaurants-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><h2>2. Impressive comps growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 令人印象深刻的同店销售增长</h2>
</div><p>Some restaurants open lots of new locations to boost their sales but then fail to grow their comparable-store sales as they mature. Therefore, it's often a red flag when a restaurant chain has positive revenue growth but negative comps growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些餐厅开设大量新店以提升销售额，但随后未能在成熟阶段增长同店销售额。因此，当一个餐厅连锁企业具有正收入增长但同店销售增长为负时，通常是一个警示信号。</p>
</div><p>Once again, this is an area where Chipotle stands out from its peers. In addition to opening new stores every year, its comps are consistently rising. This key industry metric even climbed during the start of the pandemic in 2020, driven by robust digital sales, and it continued rising over the following three years. Management expects to generate mid-to-high single-digit comps growth in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤再次脱颖而出的领域之一就是这一点。除了每年开设新店外，其同店销售额持续增长。这一关键行业指标甚至在 2020 年疫情爆发初期上升，得益于强劲的数字销售，随后在接下来的三年内继续上升。管理层预计 2024 年同店销售额将实现中高个位数增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fcomparable-store-sales-growth-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><h2>3. Expanding restaurant-level operating margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 扩大餐厅级别的运营利润率</h2>
</div><p>Over the past two years, the restaurant sector faced tough inflationary headwinds as food and labor costs rose. But after dipping during the pandemic in 2020, Chipotle's restaurant-level operating margins expanded over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两年，餐饮行业面临食品和劳动力成本上涨的严峻挑战。但在 2020 年疫情期间下滑后，墨式烧烤的餐厅级别运营利润率在接下来的三年内扩大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Frestaurant-level-operating-margins-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：墨式烧烤。图表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><p>Chipotle offset the inflationary pressure by raising its menu prices and opening more drive-thru Chipotlanes to accelerate order volumes. It expects to open Chipotlanes at more than 80% of its new locations this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤通过提高菜单价格和开设更多的驶入式 Chipotlanes 来抵消通货膨胀压力，加速订单量。公司预计今年将在超过 80% 的新店开设 Chipotlanes。</p>
</div><h2>4. Consistent revenue and earnings growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 持续的营收和盈利增长</h2>
</div><p>Chipotle's new store openings, stable comps growth, and expanding margins all enabled it to generate stronger revenue and earnings growth than major fast-food chains like McDonald's and <strong>Yum! Brands</strong> over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤的新店开设、稳定的同店销售增长和扩大的利润率使其在过去五年中实现比麦当劳和 <strong>百胜中国</strong> 等主要快餐连锁企业更强劲的营收和盈利增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png"/></p>
<p>Source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>From 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Chipotle's revenue to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% as its earnings per share (EPS) increase at a CAGR of 22%. That growth should be fueled by the expansion of its digital orders (which accounted for 36.5% of its total revenue in the first quarter of 2024), the stickiness of its loyalty program, and its expansion into Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计墨式烧烤的营收将以 14% 的复合年增长率增长，其每股收益将以 22% 的复合年增长率增加。这种增长将受益于数字订单的扩张（在 2024 年第一季度占总收入的 36.5%）、其忠诚计划的粘性以及在欧洲的扩张。</p>
</div><p>By comparison, analysts expect just single-digit revenue and earnings growth for McDonald's and Yum! Brands over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，分析师预计麦当劳和百胜中国在同一时期的营收和盈利增长仅为个位数。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right time to buy Chipotle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买墨式烧烤的正确时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Chipotle's business is still firing on all cylinders, but a lot of its growth is already baked into its valuation. McDonald's trades at just 21 times forward earnings, while Yum has a slightly higher forward multiple of 23. Therefore, Chipotle stock could experience volatility, especially if its comps growth cools off or its profit margins decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式烧烤的业务仍在全力运转，但其许多增长已经融入了其估值中。麦当劳的市盈率仅为 21 倍，而百胜的前瞻倍数略高，为 23 倍。因此，墨式烧烤股票可能会经历波动，特别是如果其同店销售增长放缓或利润率下降。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors can still nibble on Chipotle stock as it gears up for its 50-for-1 stock split on June 26. However, it's smarter to dollar-cost average into this growth play over several months or quarters instead of going all-in at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投资者仍可在墨式烧烤股票上小幅投资，因为该公司正准备在 6 月 26 日进行 50 比 1 的股票分拆。然而，与其在当前水平全力以赴不如在几个月或几个季度内分批定投这一增长机会。</p>
</div>

墨式烧烤的增长故事通过四张简单的图表展示