<p>作为一家制药巨头，辉瑞（PFE 1.39%）的股价在过去一年中稳步下滑，因为疫情疫苗热潮带来的收入和利润正在枯竭。如今，股价似乎已经稳定在 20 美元以上，接近过去十年的低点。</p>
<p>是时候宣传一下了：对辉瑞股票的悲观情绪已经过了头。</p>
<p>乍一看，辉瑞看起来像是一个投资陷阱，但实际上，这只股票更像是一个不可多得的超值选择。以下是投资者应考虑将辉瑞作为具有超越市场潜力的长期投资的三个理由。</p>
<h2>1. 这 6% 的股息率并非陷阱</h2>
<p>辉瑞长期以来一直是一只支付股息的股票，并通过连续 14 年的提高股息建立了良好声誉。如今，股息率比公司的增长更为突出。目前的 6% 股息率是 2008-2009 年金融危机以来最高的。</p>
<p>有时，高股息率可能是一个警示信号，表明市场对公司前景和继续支付能力缺乏信心。鉴于辉瑞的股价下跌，似乎情况正是如此。然而，市场的判断是错误的。</p>
<p>在辉瑞的第一季度收益电话会议上，管理层明确表示，维持和增加股息是资本分配的首要任务。数据支持这一说法。辉瑞的年度股息义务为每股 1.68 美元，根据公司全年每股盈利指导为 2.25 美元，股息支付率为可控的 75%。</p>
<p>公司正在努力偿还债务。管理层暂停股票回购以释放现金。辉瑞在第一季度偿还了 13 亿美元，并于 5 月偿还了另外 10 亿美元。投资者不应期待在管理层清理资产负债表期间有太多股息增长，但当投资者获得 6% 的起始股息率时，这并不是什么大问题。</p>
<h2>2. 增长将再次开始</h2>
<p>辉瑞在新冠疫苗上赚了大钱，并明智地将其中大部分收益投资于未来增长。具体而言，公司以 430 亿美元的现金完成了对 Seagen 的重大收购。</p>
<p>Seagen 是一家专注于癌症治疗的制药公司。该公司的产品线中有多个潜在的重磅药物正在研发中，辉瑞认为这些药物将使其在本十年内成为肿瘤学领域的领导者。管理层在一个肿瘤学活动上发表讲话，并估计到 2030 年，由于 Seagen 产品线的增加，治疗患者的数量可能增加一倍。</p>
<p>不幸的是，辉瑞的新冠疫苗（Comirnaty）和治疗药物（Paxlovid）一度占据了业务的一半以上，解除这种激增对公司的业务和利润造成了痛苦：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c20d0fd54102c07b578ba56536d263a7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c20d0fd54102c07b578ba56536d263a7.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的辉瑞营收（TTM）数据。</p>
<p>疫情产品在 2024 年第一季度仅占总销售额的 16%。Comirnaty 同比下降了 88%，Paxlovid 下降了 50%。这些销售额在未来几个季度将进一步下降。</p>
<p>好消息是，一旦这些产品完全退出市场，肿瘤学领域应该开始带动业务的增长。分析师估计，未来三到五年，辉瑞的盈利每年平均增长 10.7%。换句话说，辉瑞的非新冠业务比头条报道听起来要健康得多。</p>
<h2>3. 这个价格很难被忽视</h2>
<p>对辉瑞的压倒性怀疑已经将股价推至一个非常低的水平。如今，股价的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅略低于 12。假设辉瑞能够实现分析师们相信的盈利增长，这将是一个后来看来极为划算的交易。</p>
<p>毕竟，过去十年，这只股票的市盈率平均为 19 倍。可以合理地预期，随着增长的恢复和华尔街对辉瑞再次充满信心，股价估值将上升。</p>
<p>但假设这种情况不会发生。假设股价永远按照当前的市盈率交易。那么，投资者仍将获得卓越的回报。公司预计的盈利增长已经使您获得两位数的投资回报，而丰厚的股息意味着总回报可能每年高达 16% 至 17%。</p>
<p>投资者应避免过分乐观，因为你永远不知道会发生什么问题——事情总是会出错。但是，很难看到辉瑞这样一家拥有一系列有前途的肿瘤学产品、具有便宜估值和慷慨股息的蓝筹医疗股，而不看到好事正在发生。</p>

辉瑞

<p>辉瑞的股票因疫情疫苗热潮收入下降而下跌。然而，投资者应考虑购买辉瑞股票的三个原因。首先，该公司提供高达 6% 的股息率。其次，辉瑞通过在肿瘤学领域的重大收购投资未来增长。最后，该股目前以低价交易，具有未来增长和高回报潜力</p>

<p>Shares of pharmaceutical giant <strong>Pfizer</strong>(PFE 1.39%) have been steadily sliding lower over the past year as revenue and profits from the pandemic's vaccine boom dry up. Today, the stock has seemingly settled in the high $20s, near the lows of the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家制药巨头，辉瑞（PFE 1.39%）的股价在过去一年中稳步下滑，因为疫情疫苗热潮带来的收入和利润正在枯竭。如今，股价似乎已经稳定在 20 美元以上，接近过去十年的低点。</p>
</div><p>It's time to get the word out: The pessimism on Pfizer stock has gone <em>too far</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是时候宣传一下了：对辉瑞股票的悲观情绪已经过了头。</p>
</div><p>At first glance, Pfizer looks like a money pit, but the stock is more of a table-pounding bargain. Here are three reasons investors should consider snapping up Pfizer as a long-term investment with market-beating potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，辉瑞看起来像是一个投资陷阱，但实际上，这只股票更像是一个不可多得的超值选择。以下是投资者应考虑将辉瑞作为具有超越市场潜力的长期投资的三个理由。</p>
</div><h2>1. This 6% dividend yield is no trap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 这 6% 的股息率并非陷阱</h2>
</div><p>Pfizer has long been a dividend-paying stock and built a solid reputation by raising it for 14 consecutive years. Today, the dividend yield stands out more than the company's growth. Its current 6% yield is the highest outside of the financial crisis in 2008-2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>辉瑞长期以来一直是一只支付股息的股票，并通过连续 14 年的提高股息建立了良好声誉。如今，股息率比公司的增长更为突出。目前的 6% 股息率是 2008-2009 年金融危机以来最高的。</p>
</div><p>Sometimes, a high yield can be a red flag, a sign that the market isn't confident in the company's prospects and ability to continue to pay. Given Pfizer's slide, that seems to be the case. However, the market would be wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有时，高股息率可能是一个警示信号，表明市场对公司前景和继续支付能力缺乏信心。鉴于辉瑞的股价下跌，似乎情况正是如此。然而，市场的判断是错误的。</p>
</div><p>In Pfizer's Q1 earnings call, management clarified that maintaining and growing the dividend is the top priority in allocating capital. The math supports that assertion. Pfizer's annual dividend obligation is $1.68 per share, a manageable 75% payout ratio using the company's full-year earnings guidance of $2.25 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在辉瑞的第一季度收益电话会议上，管理层明确表示，维持和增加股息是资本分配的首要任务。数据支持这一说法。辉瑞的年度股息义务为每股 1.68 美元，根据公司全年每股盈利指导为 2.25 美元，股息支付率为可控的 75%。</p>
</div><p>The company is working on paying down debt. Management paused share repurchases to free up the cash. Pfizer paid down $1.3 billion in Q1 and paid off another $1 billion in May. Investors shouldn't expect much more than a token dividend raise while management cleans up the balance sheet, but that's not a big deal when investors get a 6% starting yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司正在努力偿还债务。管理层暂停股票回购以释放现金。辉瑞在第一季度偿还了 13 亿美元，并于 5 月偿还了另外 10 亿美元。投资者不应期待在管理层清理资产负债表期间有太多股息增长，但当投资者获得 6% 的起始股息率时，这并不是什么大问题。</p>
</div><h2>2. Growth will begin again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 增长将再次开始</h2>
</div><p>Pfizer made a ton of money on the COVID-19 vaccine and wisely used much of the proceeds to invest in future growth. Specifically, the company pulled off a blockbuster acquisition of Seagen for a whopping $43 billion in cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>辉瑞在新冠疫苗上赚了大钱，并明智地将其中大部分收益投资于未来增长。具体而言，公司以 430 亿美元的现金完成了对 Seagen 的重大收购。</p>
</div><p>Seagen was a pharmaceutical company focused on cancer treatments. The company's pipeline had multiple potential blockbuster drugs in the works that Pfizer believes will establish it as a leader in oncology by the decade's end. Management presented at an oncology event and estimated that it could double the number of patients treated by 2030, thanks to the addition of Seagen's pipeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Seagen 是一家专注于癌症治疗的制药公司。该公司的产品线中有多个潜在的重磅药物正在研发中，辉瑞认为这些药物将使其在本十年内成为肿瘤学领域的领导者。管理层在一个肿瘤学活动上发表讲话，并估计到 2030 年，由于 Seagen 产品线的增加，治疗患者的数量可能增加一倍。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine (Comirnaty) and treatment (Paxlovid) became over half the business at one point, and unwinding that surge has been painful for the top and bottom lines:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，辉瑞的新冠疫苗（Comirnaty）和治疗药物（Paxlovid）一度占据了业务的一半以上，解除这种激增对公司的业务和利润造成了痛苦：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c20d0fd54102c07b578ba56536d263a7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c20d0fd54102c07b578ba56536d263a7.png"/></p>
<p>PFE Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的辉瑞营收（TTM）数据。</p>
</div><p>Pandemic products accounted for only 16% of total sales in Q1 2024. Comirnaty was down 88% year over year, and Paxlovid was down 50%. Those sales will fall even further off Pfizer's comparable sales figures in the coming quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情产品在 2024 年第一季度仅占总销售额的 16%。Comirnaty 同比下降了 88%，Paxlovid 下降了 50%。这些销售额在未来几个季度将进一步下降。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that oncology should begin driving renewed growth once these products are entirely out of the picture. Analysts estimate that Pfizer's earnings could grow by an average of 10.7% annually for the next three to five years. In other words, Pfizer's non-COVID-19 business is far healthier than the headlines make it sound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，一旦这些产品完全退出市场，肿瘤学领域应该开始带动业务的增长。分析师估计，未来三到五年，辉瑞的盈利每年平均增长 10.7%。换句话说，辉瑞的非新冠业务比头条报道听起来要健康得多。</p>
</div><h2>3. Hard to ignore the stock at this price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 这个价格很难被忽视</h2>
</div><p>The overwhelming skepticism toward Pfizer has pushed shares to a remarkably low price. Today, the shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just under 12. Assuming Pfizer delivers the earnings growth that analysts believe it can, this could be a tremendous bargain in hindsight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对辉瑞的压倒性怀疑已经将股价推至一个非常低的水平。如今，股价的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅略低于 12。假设辉瑞能够实现分析师们相信的盈利增长，这将是一个后来看来极为划算的交易。</p>
</div><p>After all, the stock has traded at an average of 19 times earnings for the past decade. It's reasonable to expect the stock's valuation to rise as growth resumes and Wall Street feels more confident in Pfizer again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，过去十年，这只股票的市盈率平均为 19 倍。可以合理地预期，随着增长的恢复和华尔街对辉瑞再次充满信心，股价估值将上升。</p>
</div><p>But let's pretend that doesn't happen. Suppose the stock trades at its current P/E ratio forever. Well, investors are still looking at stellar returns. The company's estimated earnings growth already gets you to double-digit investment returns, and that juicy dividend means that total returns could be upwards of 16% to 17% annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但假设这种情况不会发生。假设股价永远按照当前的市盈率交易。那么，投资者仍将获得卓越的回报。公司预计的盈利增长已经使您获得两位数的投资回报，而丰厚的股息意味着总回报可能每年高达 16% 至 17%。</p>
</div><p>Investors should avoid getting overly optimistic because you never know what can go wrong -- and things go wrong all the time. Still, it's hard to look at Pfizer, a blue chip healthcare stock with a portfolio of promising oncology products, a cheap valuation, and a generous dividend, and not see good things happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应避免过分乐观，因为你永远不知道会发生什么问题——事情总是会出错。但是，很难看到辉瑞这样一家拥有一系列有前途的肿瘤学产品、具有便宜估值和慷慨股息的蓝筹医疗股，而不看到好事正在发生。</p>
</div>

Is Pfizer Stock a Buy?

- 辉瑞（Pfizer）股票自疫苗繁荣期的收入和利润减少后，过去一年持续下滑，目前似乎稳定在高 20 美元附近，接近过去十年的低点。
- 对于辉瑞股票的悲观情绪已经过了头。股票看起来像是一个投资陷阱，但实际上更像是一个性价比极高的投资机会。
- 三个理由支持投资者考虑长期持有辉瑞股票：1. 6% 的股息率不是陷阱；2. 增长将再次开始；3. 目前的股价难以忽视。

辉瑞的股票值得购买吗？