<p>巴菲特指数表明美国股市严重高估，引起了对被高估股票的关注。市值占国内生产总值的比例达到 192.6%，分析师预计，从这种程度的过度估值中，投资者每年只能获得 0.6% 的回报，包括股息。接下来，您将了解三只被高估但值得关注的特定股票。</p>
<p>通过观察这些股票的市盈率（P/E Ratio）和 PEG 比率，探讨这些股票被定价过高的可能性。然后，使用贴现现金流量（DCF）方法检查它们的内在价值。彼得·林奇的原则指出，最佳买入时机是当市盈率低于 15 且 PEG 等于 1 时。这表示公司被合理定价。如果 PEG 超过 1，则表示被高估。DCF 模型将计算内在价值，以与当前价格进行比较。</p>
<p>我们将合理评估股票当前估值中所蕴含的增长前景。当观察到整体市场指标（如标普 500 指数的市盈率为 28.5）显示市场过热时，这些选择可能正处于下行的状态。</p>
<h2>英特尔公司（ARM Holdings）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>图片来源：T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>英特尔公司</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>）是半导体行业中领先的芯片和知识产权设计公司。</p>
<p>根据其高企的估值比率和当前价格与内在价值之间的巨大差距，该公司似乎被严重高估。目前，英特尔公司的市盈率为 568.44，是美国股市中最高之一。其当前 PEG 比率也极高，达到 6.9，远远超过林奇的公平价值水平。</p>
<p>此外，使用贴现现金流量（DCF）模型计算的英特尔公司的内在价值为每股 28.13 美元。这远低于当前股价 166.94 美元。因此，这表明英特尔公司的股价几乎是其内在价值的五倍。</p>
<p>基于预期增长和未来现金流的高估值表明，英特尔公司可能已经超出了预期。作为一家与半导体周期密切相关的知识产权公司，未来的增长可能会逐渐放缓。因此，预期似乎准备接受现实的检验。</p>
<p>鉴于极高的市盈率和 PEG 比率，以及股价与内在价值之间的巨大差距，英特尔公司看起来是值得关注的被高估股票之一。投资者可能希望在购买英特尔公司增长故事之前等待更好的入场点。在不久的将来，可能会出现修正。</p>
<h2>特朗斯迪姆集团（TransDigm Group）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>特朗斯迪姆集团</strong>（NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>）设计并制造用于商用和军用飞机平台的产品。它也很可能很快从其领先地位下降。该公司的市盈率极高，为 52.4，是彼得·林奇标准的 3 倍多。此外，该公司的 PEG 比率高达 5.02。</p>
<p>最令人担忧的是特朗斯迪姆当前股价与内在价值之间的巨大差距。根据贴现现金流量估值模型，特朗斯迪姆的内在价值仅估计为每股 237 美元。与实际股价 1288.65 美元相比，这表示被高估。</p>
<p>市场对特朗斯迪姆未来现金流的估值似乎被夸大了。确实，该公司在一个有吸引力的航空航天行业中运营，并生产专有的专业产品。然而，其增长前景似乎无法证明其与内在价值的脱节。</p>
<p>随着市盈率和 PEG 比率急剧上升远高于基准值，再加上内在价值不到当前价格五分之一，特朗斯迪姆被视为投资者可能要避开的更为高估值的股票之一。</p>
<h2>泰瑞达（Teradyne）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>泰瑞达</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>）是领先的自动化测试设备和机器人解决方案供应商，根据其当前估值，该公司显然被高估。该公司的市盈率为 56.47，几乎是林奇基准的四倍。其 PEG 比率同样令人担忧，为 6.85。</p>
<p>此外，泰瑞达的内在价值约等于每股 147.57 美元的当前价格。这表明该股票的交易价格是其内在价值的两倍多。</p>
<p>尽管泰瑞达产生了强劲的现金流并保持领先的市场地位，但其增长前景并不确定。在过去几个季度中，由于客户更加谨慎的资本支出，该公司的芯片测试设备需求有所放缓。此外，其收入在最近一个季度下降了 3%，盈利也未达到预期。</p>
<p>此外，高估值似乎将完美执行未来多年的增长定价进去。因此，如果增长预期遇到重大阻碍，泰瑞达股票看起来很脆弱。</p>
<p>鉴于增长方面存在的风险和股价与内在价值之间的极端脱节，泰瑞达是另一只值得关注的被高估股票，可能会出现破裂。在这些水平上，TER 似乎承担着比上行潜力更大得多的下行风险。更有耐心的投资者可能更愿意在估值回归到历史正常水平之前观望。</p>
<p>_在发布日期，Andrea van Schalkwyk 没有持有（直接或间接）所提到证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点属于作者本人，遵守 InvestorPlace.com 的发布准则。</p>
<p>Andrea van Schalkwyk 是一位价值投资者，遵循著名的沃伦·巴菲特及其导师本杰明·格雷厄姆的原则。他拥有帕多瓦大学的工程硕士学位（MEng）和 CUOA 商学院的工商管理硕士学位。</p>
<p>人工智能、工业、半导体、航天、科技</p>

泰瑞达

<p>巴菲特指数显示美国股市被高估，特别是 ARM Holdings、TransDigm Group 和泰瑞达这三只股票被明显高估。这些股票的市盈率（P/E）和市盈增长比（PEG）很高，其内在价值远低于当前股价。投资者可能希望在购买这些股票之前等待更好的入场点</p>

<p>The Buffett Indicator signals a significantly overvalued U.S. Stock Market and has drawn much attention to overvalued stocks to watch. With market cap over GDP at 192.6%, analysts expect returns to be only 0.6% a year including dividends from this level of overvaluation. Below, you’ll learn about three particular stocks that are overvalued but should be watched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特指数表明美国股市严重高估，引起了对被高估股票的关注。市值占国内生产总值的比例达到 192.6%，分析师预计，从这种程度的过度估值中，投资者每年只能获得 0.6% 的回报，包括股息。接下来，您将了解三只被高估但值得关注的特定股票。</p>
</div><p>Explore the possibility of these stocks being overpriced by looking at their P/E Ratios and PEG ratios. Then, examine their intrinsic values using a discounted cash flow ( <strong>DCF</strong>) methodology. Peter Lynch’s principles state the best time to buy is when P/E is under 15 and PEG equals 1. This denotes a fairly valued company. If PEG exceeds 1, it signals an overvaluation. The DCF models will calculate intrinsic values to compare against current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过观察这些股票的市盈率（P/E Ratio）和 PEG 比率，探讨这些股票被定价过高的可能性。然后，使用贴现现金流量（DCF）方法检查它们的内在价值。彼得·林奇的原则指出，最佳买入时机是当市盈率低于 15 且 PEG 等于 1 时。这表示公司被合理定价。如果 PEG 超过 1，则表示被高估。DCF 模型将计算内在价值，以与当前价格进行比较。</p>
</div><p>We’ll aim to reasonably assess the growth prospects factored into the stocks’ current valuations. With the overall market appearing frothy when looking at metrics like the elevated <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> P/E ratio of 28.5, these picks may be primed for a comedown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们将合理评估股票当前估值中所蕴含的增长前景。当观察到整体市场指标（如标普 500 指数的市盈率为 28.5）显示市场过热时，这些选择可能正处于下行的状态。</p>
</div><h2>ARM Holdings (ARM)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特尔公司（ARM Holdings）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>ARM Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>) is a leading designer of chips and intellectual property in the semiconductor industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英特尔公司</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>）是半导体行业中领先的芯片和知识产权设计公司。</p>
</div><p>The company appears significantly overvalued based on its sky-high valuation ratios and large discrepancy between current price and intrinsic value. Currently, ARM trades at a P/E ratio of 568.44, one of the highest in the U.S. stock market. Its current PEG ratio is also extremely high at 6.9, far exceeding Lynch’s fair value level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据其高企的估值比率和当前价格与内在价值之间的巨大差距，该公司似乎被严重高估。目前，英特尔公司的市盈率为 568.44，是美国股市中最高之一。其当前 PEG 比率也极高，达到 6.9，远远超过林奇的公平价值水平。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the intrinsic value of ARM Holdings using a discounted cash flow ( <strong>DCF</strong>) model is $28.13 per share. This is vastly lower than the current share price of $166.94. Therefore, this indicates ARM trades at nearly five times its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，使用贴现现金流量（DCF）模型计算的英特尔公司的内在价值为每股 28.13 美元。这远低于当前股价 166.94 美元。因此，这表明英特尔公司的股价几乎是其内在价值的五倍。</p>
</div><p>Stretched valuations based on expected growth and future cash flows suggest ARM Holdings may have overshot its mark. As an intellectual property company tied heavily to the semiconductor cycle, growth is likely to moderate moving forward. Thus expectations seem poised for a reality check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于预期增长和未来现金流的高估值表明，英特尔公司可能已经超出了预期。作为一家与半导体周期密切相关的知识产权公司，未来的增长可能会逐渐放缓。因此，预期似乎准备接受现实的检验。</p>
</div><p>Given the extremely high P/E and PEG ratios and the enormous gap between price and intrinsic value, ARM Holdings looks like one of the overvalued stocks to watch. Investors may want to wait for a better entry point before buying into the ARM growth story. A correction seems likely to materialize before too long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于极高的市盈率和 PEG 比率，以及股价与内在价值之间的巨大差距，英特尔公司看起来是值得关注的被高估股票之一。投资者可能希望在购买英特尔公司增长故事之前等待更好的入场点。在不久的将来，可能会出现修正。</p>
</div><h2>TransDigm Group (TDG)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗斯迪姆集团（TransDigm Group）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>TransDigm Group</strong> (NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>) designs and creates products for use in commercial and military aircraft platforms. It’s also likely to soon fall from its pedestal. The company trades at an extremely high P/E ratio of 52.4, over 3 times higher than Peter Lynch’s standard. In addition, the company’s PEG ratio stands at a sky-high 5.02.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗斯迪姆集团</strong>（NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>）设计并制造用于商用和军用飞机平台的产品。它也很可能很快从其领先地位下降。该公司的市盈率极高，为 52.4，是彼得·林奇标准的 3 倍多。此外，该公司的 PEG 比率高达 5.02。</p>
</div><p>Most concerning is the massive discrepancy between TransDigm’s current share price and its intrinsic value. Based on a discounted cash flow valuation model, TransDigm’s intrinsic value is estimated at only $237 per share. This represents an overvaluation compared to the actual stock price of $1,288.65.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最令人担忧的是特朗斯迪姆当前股价与内在价值之间的巨大差距。根据贴现现金流量估值模型，特朗斯迪姆的内在价值仅估计为每股 237 美元。与实际股价 1288.65 美元相比，这表示被高估。</p>
</div><p>The market’s valuation of TransDigm’s future cash flows appears overinflated. It’s true that the company operates in an attractive aerospace industry and produces specialized proprietary products. However, its growth prospects don’t seem to justify such a disconnect with intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对特朗斯迪姆未来现金流的估值似乎被夸大了。确实，该公司在一个有吸引力的航空航天行业中运营，并生产专有的专业产品。然而，其增长前景似乎无法证明其与内在价值的脱节。</p>
</div><p>With warning signs evident in skyrocketing P/E and PEG ratios far above baseline values, plus an intrinsic value less than one-fifth of the current price, TransDigm shapes up as one of the more overvalued stocks that investors may want to avoid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市盈率和 PEG 比率急剧上升远高于基准值，再加上内在价值不到当前价格五分之一，特朗斯迪姆被视为投资者可能要避开的更为高估值的股票之一。</p>
</div><h2>Teradyne (TER)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>泰瑞达（Teradyne）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>Teradyne</strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>), a leading supplier of automated test equipment and robotics solutions, appears significantly overvalued based on its current valuations. The company has an exorbitant P/E ratio of 56.47, nearly four times Lynch’s benchmark. Its PEG ratio is equally concerning at 6.85.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>泰瑞达</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>）是领先的自动化测试设备和机器人解决方案供应商，根据其当前估值，该公司显然被高估。该公司的市盈率为 56.47，几乎是林奇基准的四倍。其 PEG 比率同样令人担忧，为 6.85。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Teradyne’s intrinsic value is approximately equal to its current price of $147.57 per share. This indicates the stock is trading at more than twice its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，泰瑞达的内在价值约等于每股 147.57 美元的当前价格。这表明该股票的交易价格是其内在价值的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>While Teradyne generates strong cash flows and maintains a leading market position, its growth prospects are uncertain. The company has experienced slowing demand for its chip testing equipment over the past few quarters amid customers’ more cautious capital spending. Furthermore, its revenue has declined 3% and earnings missed estimates in the most recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管泰瑞达产生了强劲的现金流并保持领先的市场地位，但其增长前景并不确定。在过去几个季度中，由于客户更加谨慎的资本支出，该公司的芯片测试设备需求有所放缓。此外，其收入在最近一个季度下降了 3%，盈利也未达到预期。</p>
</div><p>Further, stretched valuations seem to price in flawless execution of growth for years to come. So, Teradyne stock appears vulnerable should the growth projections hit any major roadblock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，高估值似乎将完美执行未来多年的增长定价进去。因此，如果增长预期遇到重大阻碍，泰瑞达股票看起来很脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Given the red flags around growth and the extreme disconnect between price and intrinsic value, Teradyne is another overvalued stock to watch before a potential bursting. At these levels, TER seems to carry significantly more downside risk than upside potential. More patient investors may prefer to watch it from the sidelines until valuations revert closer to historical norms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于增长方面存在的风险和股价与内在价值之间的极端脱节，泰瑞达是另一只值得关注的被高估股票，可能会出现破裂。在这些水平上，TER 似乎承担着比上行潜力更大得多的下行风险。更有耐心的投资者可能更愿意在估值回归到历史正常水平之前观望。</p>
</div><p><em>On the date of publication, Andrea van Schalkwyk did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com</em> <em>Publishing Guidelines</em> <em>.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_在发布日期，Andrea van Schalkwyk 没有持有（直接或间接）所提到证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点属于作者本人，遵守 InvestorPlace.com 的发布准则。</p>
</div><p>Andrea van Schalkwyk is a value investor who adheres to the principles of the renowned Warren Buffett and his mentor Benjamin Graham. He holds a Master of Engineering (MEng) from the University of Padua and an Executive MBA from the CUOA Business School.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Andrea van Schalkwyk 是一位价值投资者，遵循著名的沃伦·巴菲特及其导师本杰明·格雷厄姆的原则。他拥有帕多瓦大学的工程硕士学位（MEng）和 CUOA 商学院的工商管理硕士学位。</p>
</div><p>Artificial Intelligence, Industrial, Semiconductor, Space, Technology</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能、工业、半导体、航天、科技</p>
</div>

泡沫危机？在泡沫破裂前识别出 3 只被高估的股票