<p>Nvidia（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA</strong>）和 Microsoft（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT</strong>）可以说是两家受益最多于人工智能（AI）崛起的巨头公司。这使得很难对这两家公司采取其他立场，除了看涨。然而，考虑到 Nvidia 的快速增长相比于微软更为稳定的轨迹，我现在更倾向于认为微软是两者中更好的投资选择。</p>
<p>微软通过其软件和云服务使人工智能的可访问性和整合民主化，而 Nvidia 提供了 AI 处理所需的专业硬件。两者的独特能力共同促进了跨各行业的人工智能创新生态系统，使它们成为互补力量。</p>
<p>在本文中，我将深入研究这两家公司，比较它们的营收增长、利润率和估值差异。</p>
<h2><strong>Nvidia 的指数增长及未来之路</strong></h2>
<p>Nvidia 最近表现抢眼，在股市中引人注目，甚至超过微软和苹果（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL</strong>）等大科技公司，于 2024 年中成为市值最高的公司。在过去五年中，NVDA 惊人的涨幅达到 2,998%，这与投资者大胆押注 AI 潜力颠覆经济有关。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia 的成就不言而喻。由于 AI 迎来高速增长，Nvidia 的增长呈指数级增长，特别是在过去一年半的时间里。其营收从 2017 年的 69.1 亿美元增长到 2024 年 1 月的 609.2 亿美元。公司的运营利润率也大幅提升。目前公司的净利润率为 48.8%，较 2017 年的 24% 提高。这意味着 Nvidia 通过控制成本实现业务蓬勃发展的同时，利润翻番。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg"/></p>
<p>此外，我们对 Nvidia 的销售前景有很好的可见性，看起来非常强劲。Nvidia 的销售带来非常高的利润率，毛利率超过 78%，而预测显示，到 2025 年 1 月结束的财政期间，销售额将增长 97%，随后到 2026 年 1 月将再增长 32%。因此，我们可以看到 Nvidia 的增长是显著的。</p>
<p>关键在于 Nvidia 需要保持这种势头。以 38 倍的前瞻性 EV/EBITDA，任何增长预期放缓都可能带来麻烦。也就是说，如果 Nvidia 仍处于早期或中期增长阶段，这种估值可能是合理的。但始终存在一个令人担忧的问题，即过去五年近 3000% 的涨幅可能会在面临第一个重大障碍时破裂。</p>
<p>然而，华尔街似乎并不担心这一点。当我们看分析师一致预测时，即使考虑到估值溢价，Nvidia 仍被认为是强热门股，41 位分析师中有 38 位给出看涨建议，只有三位给出持有建议。平均目标价为 135.09 美元，暗示着 9.35% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png"/></p>
<p>最乐观的是 Rosenblatt Securities 的五星分析师 Hans Mosesmann，他对 Nvidia 给出了 200 美元的目标价，并认为 Nvidia 参与软件领域将显著增加未来十年的整体销售额，从而对可持续性产生积极影响，进而提升估值。</p>
<h2><strong>微软：乘着线性增长浪潮</strong></h2>
<p>在当前 GenAI 繁荣中，微软无疑正在乘着重要的增长机遇浪潮。虽然不及 Nvidia 那般爆炸性，但该公司在过去五年中涨幅超过 245%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png"/></p>
<p>该公司通过成功执行其 GenAI 货币化战略有效地振兴了其增长势头。这些战略包括在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 上取得实质性进展，与 OpenAI 的独家云合作伙伴关系以及 Azure 的出色表现。</p>
<p>2017 年，微软全年营收约为 965 亿美元。快进到 2023 年，全年营收翻了两番，达到了 2119 亿美元。这是一次巨大的飞跃，显示了他们与 Nvidia 相比增长了多少，后者去年的总营收不到微软增长的一半。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg"/></p>
<p>在盈利能力方面，微软的利润率从 26.3% 左右增长到过去一年的坚实 34.1%。他们的增长是稳定的，不像 Nvidia 那样火箭般的轨迹。</p>
<p>关键点在于稳定的增长也导致微软的股价交易溢价。通常，任何股票交易价格高于 10 倍 EV/Sales 可能被视为昂贵。目前，微软的前瞻性 EV/Sales 为 13 倍，前瞻性非 GAAP P/E 比率为 36 倍，这是五年来最高的，而平均值为 31 倍。我认为微软的溢价价格反映了对其长期增长的信心，特别是在其人工智能推动下。</p>
<p>微软在 2024 年最后三个季度的 CapEx 年增长超过 50%，以加强其云和人工智能领域，为未来做好准备。</p>
<p>然而，华尔街的共识却更加看涨——事实上，可能更看涨。在覆盖该股票的 35 位分析师中，只有一位给出持有建议，其余都重申了对该股票的买入评级。分析师们的平均目标价为 500.71 美元，表明潜在上涨幅度为 10.57%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg"/></p>
<p>最看好的是 Truist Financial 的分析师 Joel Fishbein，根据 Tipranks 评级，他是五星分析师，给微软股票设定了$600 的目标价位。该分析师表示，微软的指引可能过于保守，同时有多个有利因素和通过扩大人工智能项目实现超越和提升的能力，主要提到 Azure 增长。</p>
<h2><strong>结论</strong></h2>
<p>Nvidia 和微软目前可能是人工智能领域最主导的参与者，Nvidia 在硬件方面领先，微软在软件方面领先。它们共同形成强大的协同效应，主导着人工智能领域，加速行业增长，并促进持续创新。</p>
<p>两家公司仍然面临着强劲的需求，几乎没有什么顾虑。然而，Nvidia 的增长是指数级的，而微软的增长是稳定且线性的。这意味着任何颠簸可能会对 Nvidia 造成比对微软更严重的打击。尽管我对两者都持乐观态度，但我更倾向于认为微软是更好的购买选择。</p>
<p>披露</p>
<p>免责声明</p>

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

微软

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英伟达

<p>Nvidia 和微软是两家受益于人工智能兴起的巨头公司。Nvidia 的快速增长使其成为更好的投资选择，但其估值可能令人担忧。分析师对 Nvidia 持乐观态度，设定了 135.09 美元的目标价位。微软的增长稳健，股价较高，反映了对其长期增长的信心。微软正在加大对云计算和人工智能的投资。华尔街普遍看好微软</p>

<p>Nvidia ( <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong>) and Microsoft ( <strong>NASDAQ:MSFT</strong>) are arguably two giant companies that have benefited the most from the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). This makes it difficult to adopt any position other than a bullish one on either of these firms. However, considering Nvidia’s rapid growth compared to Microsoft’s steadier trajectory, I now lean towards Microsoft as the better buy between the two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA</strong>）和 Microsoft（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT</strong>）可以说是两家受益最多于人工智能（AI）崛起的巨头公司。这使得很难对这两家公司采取其他立场，除了看涨。然而，考虑到 Nvidia 的快速增长相比于微软更为稳定的轨迹，我现在更倾向于认为微软是两者中更好的投资选择。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft democratizes AI accessibility and integration through its software and cloud offerings, whereas Nvidia provides the specialized hardware needed for AI processing. Together, their distinct capabilities foster a robust ecosystem for AI innovation across various industries, making them complementary forces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软通过其软件和云服务使人工智能的可访问性和整合民主化，而 Nvidia 提供了 AI 处理所需的专业硬件。两者的独特能力共同促进了跨各行业的人工智能创新生态系统，使它们成为互补力量。</p>
</div><p>In this article, I’ll deep-dive into both companies, comparing revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation differences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本文中，我将深入研究这两家公司，比较它们的营收增长、利润率和估值差异。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Nvidia’s Exponential Growth and the Road Ahead</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Nvidia 的指数增长及未来之路</strong></h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has been on fire lately, stealing the spotlight in the stock market and even outranking Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Apple <strong>(NASDAQ:AAPL</strong>) to become the world’s most valuable company by market cap in mid-2024. Over the last five years, NVDA’s jaw-dropping 2,998% surge has been linked to investors betting big on AI’s potential to shake up the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 最近表现抢眼，在股市中引人注目，甚至超过微软和苹果（<strong>纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL</strong>）等大科技公司，于 2024 年中成为市值最高的公司。在过去五年中，NVDA 惊人的涨幅达到 2,998%，这与投资者大胆押注 AI 潜力颠覆经济有关。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia’s achievements speak volumes. Thanks to AI hitting its stride, Nvidia’s growth has been exponential, especially in the past year and a half. Its revenue has surged from $6.91 billion in 2017 to $60.92 billion by January 2024. It has also ramped up its operating profit margin in a big way. The company’s net margins are now 48.8%, an increase from the 24% margins in 2017. That means Nvidia is doubling its margins by tightening costs as business booms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的成就不言而喻。由于 AI 迎来高速增长，Nvidia 的增长呈指数级增长，特别是在过去一年半的时间里。其营收从 2017 年的 69.1 亿美元增长到 2024 年 1 月的 609.2 亿美元。公司的运营利润率也大幅提升。目前公司的净利润率为 48.8%，较 2017 年的 24% 提高。这意味着 Nvidia 通过控制成本实现业务蓬勃发展的同时，利润翻番。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg"/></p>
<p>In addition, we have good visibility into Nvidia’s sales prospects, and they look very strong. Nvidia’s sales come with very high-profit margins- over 78% in gross profit margin- while projections indicate a 97% revenue growth by the fiscal period ending in January 2025, followed by an additional 32% growth for January 2026. Therefore, we can see that Nvidia’s growth is remarkable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，我们对 Nvidia 的销售前景有很好的可见性，看起来非常强劲。Nvidia 的销售带来非常高的利润率，毛利率超过 78%，而预测显示，到 2025 年 1 月结束的财政期间，销售额将增长 97%，随后到 2026 年 1 月将再增长 32%。因此，我们可以看到 Nvidia 的增长是显著的。</p>
</div><p>The big catch is that Nvidia needs to keep this momentum. With a forward EV/EBITDA of 38x, any slowdown in growth expectations could spell trouble. That said, this valuation may make sense if Nvidia is still in its early or mid-growth phase. But there’s always that nagging worry that the nearly 3,000% jump in the last five years might burst at the face of the first major hurdle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键在于 Nvidia 需要保持这种势头。以 38 倍的前瞻性 EV/EBITDA，任何增长预期放缓都可能带来麻烦。也就是说，如果 Nvidia 仍处于早期或中期增长阶段，这种估值可能是合理的。但始终存在一个令人担忧的问题，即过去五年近 3000% 的涨幅可能会在面临第一个重大障碍时破裂。</p>
</div><p>However, it seems that Wall Street doesn’t share this concern. When we look at analyst consensus, even with the valuation premium, Nvidia is a Strong Buy where 38 out of 41 analysts have a bullish recommendation, while only three have a Hold recommendation. The average price target is $135.09, suggesting an upside potential of 9.35%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，华尔街似乎并不担心这一点。当我们看分析师一致预测时，即使考虑到估值溢价，Nvidia 仍被认为是强热门股，41 位分析师中有 38 位给出看涨建议，只有三位给出持有建议。平均目标价为 135.09 美元，暗示着 9.35% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png"/></p>
<p>The most optimistic is Rosenblatt Securities Hans Mosesmann, a five-star analyst according to Tipranks ratings, who has a $200 price target on Nvidia and believes that the path to strong valuation lies in Nvidia’s participation in software, to significantly increase the overall sales over the next decade, positively impacting valuation due to its sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最乐观的是 Rosenblatt Securities 的五星分析师 Hans Mosesmann，他对 Nvidia 给出了 200 美元的目标价，并认为 Nvidia 参与软件领域将显著增加未来十年的整体销售额，从而对可持续性产生积极影响，进而提升估值。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Microsoft: Riding a Linear Growth Wave</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>微软：乘着线性增长浪潮</strong></h2>
</div><p>Microsoft is undeniably riding a wave of significant growth opportunities amid the current GenAI boom. While not as explosive as Nvidia, the company has surged over 245% in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前 GenAI 繁荣中，微软无疑正在乘着重要的增长机遇浪潮。虽然不及 Nvidia 那般爆炸性，但该公司在过去五年中涨幅超过 245%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png"/></p>
<p>The company has effectively revitalized its growth momentum through the successful execution of its GenAI monetization strategies. These include gaining substantial traction with Microsoft 365 Copilot, its exclusive cloud partnership with OpenAI, and impressive performance from Azure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司通过成功执行其 GenAI 货币化战略有效地振兴了其增长势头。这些战略包括在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 上取得实质性进展，与 OpenAI 的独家云合作伙伴关系以及 Azure 的出色表现。</p>
</div><p>In 2017, Microsoft’s revenue was about $96.5 billion for the full year. Fast-forward to 2023, and it’s tripled to $211.9 billion for the full year. That’s a massive leap and shows how much they’ve grown compared to Nvidia, whose total revenue for the last year is less than half of Microsoft’s growth over the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2017 年，微软全年营收约为 965 亿美元。快进到 2023 年，全年营收翻了两番，达到了 2119 亿美元。这是一次巨大的飞跃，显示了他们与 Nvidia 相比增长了多少，后者去年的总营收不到微软增长的一半。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg"/></p>
<p>When it comes to profitability, Microsoft’s profit margin has jumped from around 26.3% to a solid 34.1% in the past year. Their growth has been steady, unlike Nvidia’s rocket-like trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在盈利能力方面，微软的利润率从 26.3% 左右增长到过去一年的坚实 34.1%。他们的增长是稳定的，不像 Nvidia 那样火箭般的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>The crucial point is that steady growth also leads to Microsoft’s stock trading at a premium. Usually, any stock trading above 10x EV/Sales may be considered pricey. Right now, Microsoft is sitting at forward 13x EV/Sales and 36x forward non-GAAP P/E ratio, the highest in five years compared to an average of 31x. I believe that MSFT’s premium price reflects the confidence in their long-term growth, especially with their AI push.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键点在于稳定的增长也导致微软的股价交易溢价。通常，任何股票交易价格高于 10 倍 EV/Sales 可能被视为昂贵。目前，微软的前瞻性 EV/Sales 为 13 倍，前瞻性非 GAAP P/E 比率为 36 倍，这是五年来最高的，而平均值为 31 倍。我认为微软的溢价价格反映了对其长期增长的信心，特别是在其人工智能推动下。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft has been ramping up CapEx by more than 50% year-over-year in the last three-quarters of 2024 to beef up its cloud and AI game for what’s coming next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在 2024 年最后三个季度的 CapEx 年增长超过 50%，以加强其云和人工智能领域，为未来做好准备。</p>
</div><p>The Wall Street consensus, however, couldn’t be more bullish—in fact, it could. Of the 35 analysts who cover the stock, only one has a Hold recommendation, while the rest have reiterated a Buy rating in the stock. The average price target among analysts is $500.71, indicating a potential upside of 10.57%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，华尔街的共识却更加看涨——事实上，可能更看涨。在覆盖该股票的 35 位分析师中，只有一位给出持有建议，其余都重申了对该股票的买入评级。分析师们的平均目标价为 500.71 美元，表明潜在上涨幅度为 10.57%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The most bullish is Truist Financial’s Joel Fishbein, a five-star analyst according to Tipranks ratings, who has a price target of $600 on Microsoft stock. The analyst said Microsoft’s guidance could be conservative with multiple tailwinds and the ability to beat and raise with AI projects expanding, mentioning mainly growth in Azure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最看好的是 Truist Financial 的分析师 Joel Fishbein，根据 Tipranks 评级，他是五星分析师，给微软股票设定了$600 的目标价位。该分析师表示，微软的指引可能过于保守，同时有多个有利因素和通过扩大人工智能项目实现超越和提升的能力，主要提到 Azure 增长。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>结论</strong></h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are probably the most dominant players in AI right now, with Nvidia leading in hardware and Microsoft in software. Together, they form a powerful synergy that dominates the AI landscape, accelerates industry growth, and fosters continuous innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和微软目前可能是人工智能领域最主导的参与者，Nvidia 在硬件方面领先，微软在软件方面领先。它们共同形成强大的协同效应，主导着人工智能领域，加速行业增长，并促进持续创新。</p>
</div><p>Both companies are still seeing solid demand, with very few concerns. However, Nvidia’s growth has been exponential, while Microsoft’s has been steady and linear. This means any bumps in the road could hit Nvidia harder than Microsoft. Though I’m still bullish on both, I lean more toward Microsoft as a better buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两家公司仍然面临着强劲的需求，几乎没有什么顾虑。然而，Nvidia 的增长是指数级的，而微软的增长是稳定且线性的。这意味着任何颠簸可能会对 Nvidia 造成比对微软更严重的打击。尽管我对两者都持乐观态度，但我更倾向于认为微软是更好的购买选择。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div><p>Disclaimer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>免责声明</p>
</div>

英伟达（NVDA）与微软（MSFT）：人工智能巨头之战