<p><strong>联合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.47%) 和 <strong>联邦快递</strong>(FDX -1.51%) 是吸引人的股票，但在 2024 年仍然面临着交易量和定价挑战。尽管如此，有证据表明它们正在克服这些问题，它们可能在日历年的下半年表现出色。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>美国小包裹市场供过于求</h2>
<p>与经济的许多领域一样，包裹递送市场近年来的动态非常不同寻常。UPS 管理层在三月底的投资者日演示中表达了这一观点，描述了下表中所列市场情况。</p>
<p>从 2018 年到 2020 年，市场出现了正常的过剩产能期，这对于满足需求激增并保持客户满意而不必采购昂贵的第三方运输是有利的。然而，由于封锁导致需求激增，供应增长受阻，因为同样的封锁导致了产能限制。</p>
<p>快进到当前情况，现在每日平均交易量（ADV）供过于求 1200 万，因为消费者行为趋于正常化，经济放缓，供应重新上线。</p>
<p>|</p>
<p><strong>美国小包裹市场</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2022-2025</strong> |
|</p>
<p>每日平均交易量供应与需求 |</p>
<p>供应过剩 600 万 |</p>
<p>需求过剩 600 万 |</p>
<p>当前供应过剩 1200 万 |
|</p>
<p>备注 |</p>
<p>正常缓冲以满足任何需求激增；供需平稳上升 |</p>
<p>封锁导致需求激增和难以提高供应。 |</p>
<p>随着封锁结束和经济放缓，供应随着员工回归而恢复。 |</p>
<p>数据来源：UPS 演示；作者注。</p>
<p>因此，一个重要问题是，联邦快递和 UPS 的增长计划受到供过于求的什么风险？供过于求导致定价疲软，最终导致利润率和收益令人失望。</p>
<p>这对 UPS 来说是一个特别问题，因为其三年计划要求调整后的营运利润从 2023 年的 99 亿美元增长到 2026 年的至少 143 亿美元，其中大部分利润增长来自每件货物收入的增长。</p>
<p>这是一个值得关注的问题，但有三个理由可以相信这两家运输公司可以度过这一时期并实现其财务目标。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 包裹递送量正在改善</h2>
<p>首先，正如图表所示，交易量增长的下降正在减缓。联邦快递管理层最近表示，他们看到需求和交易量正在改善。关于其美国国内包裹交易量，UPS 管理层表示，他们预计四月份第二季度的正交易量会略微增加。</p>
<p>如果包裹递送量继续增长，这将有助于减少市场的供过于求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：UPS 和联邦快递演示。 * 联邦快递的数字已调整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增长。</p>
<h2>2. 电子商务交易正在回升</h2>
<p>另一个积极的迹象是联邦快递管理层认为电子商务增长正在回升。联邦快递预计其当前财政年度（截至 2025 年 5 月底）的收入将以低个位数至中个位数的速度增长。这一指导背后的假设包括收益扩张（稍后将详细介绍）、全球工业生产增长和国内电子商务增长。</p>
<p>电子商务增长的提升是一个好迹象，因为它表明消费者开始在经历了无法在疫情封锁期间进行的旅行和服务等消费后，开始恢复正常行为。</p>
<h2>3. 定价和收益仍然积极</h2>
<p>考虑到市场的供过于求以及两家公司在 2024 年经历的最严重问题，当前的定价数据表明它们处理得很好。联邦快递谈到了一个 “竞争但理性” 的定价环境。事实上，联邦快递的每件货物收入在最近一个季度增加，整体公司每件货物收入也是如此。</p>
<p>UPS 的美国国内每件货物收入（以及整体每件货物收入）在其第一个季度略为负面，但管理层认为随着燃油价格和燃油附加费的增加，这种情况将在今年内得到改善。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：UPS 和联邦快递演示。 * 联邦快递的数字已调整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增长。</p>
<h2>股票买入</h2>
<p>联邦快递和 UPS 的投资者将急切地等待 UPS 于 7 月 23 日发布的第二季度财报。如果结果证实美国国内包裹交易量增长，并且每件货物收入有所改善，这将大大有助于说服投资者，表明定价环境稳固，行业的供过于求正在得到缓解。这将对两家股票都是利好。</p>

联邦快递

联合包裹

<p>联合包裹（UPS）和联邦快递（FedEx）面临包裹递送市场供应过剩带来的运量和定价挑战。然而，包裹递送量和电子商务增长呈现积极迹象。定价和收益保持积极，表明两家公司都在处理这种情况良好。投资者期待 UPS 即将发布的财报以进一步确认情况</p>

<p><strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 0.47%) and <strong>FedEx</strong>(FDX -1.51%) are attractive stocks but continue facing volume and pricing challenges in 2024. That said, there's evidence to suggest that they are overcoming these issues, and they could both have excellent second halves of the calendar year. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>联合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.47%) 和 <strong>联邦快递</strong>(FDX -1.51%) 是吸引人的股票，但在 2024 年仍然面临着交易量和定价挑战。尽管如此，有证据表明它们正在克服这些问题，它们可能在日历年的下半年表现出色。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>The U.S. small package market is at overcapacity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国小包裹市场供过于求</h2>
</div><p>Like much of the economy, the package delivery market has had highly unusual dynamics in recent years. UPS management expressed this during its Investor Day presentation in late March, describing the market as laid out in the table below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与经济的许多领域一样，包裹递送市场近年来的动态非常不同寻常。UPS 管理层在三月底的投资者日演示中表达了这一观点，描述了下表中所列市场情况。</p>
</div><p>From 2018 to 2020, there was a normal period of excess capacity in the market, which was good for meeting demand spikes and keeping customers happy without resorting to the expensive purchase of third-party transportation. However, demand surged due to the lockdowns, and supply struggled to grow as the same lockdowns caused capacity restraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2018 年到 2020 年，市场出现了正常的过剩产能期，这对于满足需求激增并保持客户满意而不必采购昂贵的第三方运输是有利的。然而，由于封锁导致需求激增，供应增长受阻，因为同样的封锁导致了产能限制。</p>
</div><p>Fast-forward to the current situation, and there's now an average daily volume (ADV) oversupply of 12 million as consumers normalized behavior, the economy slowed, and supply came back online.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快进到当前情况，现在每日平均交易量（ADV）供过于求 1200 万，因为消费者行为趋于正常化，经济放缓，供应重新上线。</p>
<p>|</p>
</div><p><strong>U.S. Small Package Market</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国小包裹市场</strong> |</p>
</div><p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
</div><p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>2022-2025</strong></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2022-2025</strong> |
|</p>
</div><p>Average daily volume supply vs. demand |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日平均交易量供应与需求 |</p>
</div><p>Excess supply of 6 million |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应过剩 600 万 |</p>
</div><p>Excess demand of 6 million |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求过剩 600 万 |</p>
</div><p>Current excess supply of 12 million |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前供应过剩 1200 万 |
|</p>
</div><p>Notes |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>备注 |</p>
</div><p>Normal buffer to meet any demand spike; supply and demand trending upward smoothly |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正常缓冲以满足任何需求激增；供需平稳上升 |</p>
</div><p>Lockdowns created surging demand and difficulty raising supply. |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>封锁导致需求激增和难以提高供应。 |</p>
</div><p>Demand flattens as lockdowns end and the economy slows, and supply comes back as workers return. |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着封锁结束和经济放缓，供应随着员工回归而恢复。 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: UPS presentations; notes by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：UPS 演示；作者注。</p>
</div><p>As such, the big question is, what risk is there to FedEx's and UPS' growth plans from oversupply? Oversupply creates weak pricing that ultimately leads to margin and earnings disappointments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，一个重要问题是，联邦快递和 UPS 的增长计划受到供过于求的什么风险？供过于求导致定价疲软，最终导致利润率和收益令人失望。</p>
</div><p>This is a particular issue for UPS because its three-year plan calls for adjusted operating profit to grow from $9.9 billion in 2023 to at least $14.3 billion in 2026, with the bulk of the profit increase coming from growth in revenue per piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对 UPS 来说是一个特别问题，因为其三年计划要求调整后的营运利润从 2023 年的 99 亿美元增长到 2026 年的至少 143 亿美元，其中大部分利润增长来自每件货物收入的增长。</p>
</div><p>It's a concern, but there are three reasons to believe both transportation companies can work through this period and achieve their financial targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个值得关注的问题，但有三个理由可以相信这两家运输公司可以度过这一时期并实现其财务目标。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Fgettyimages-1177117400-1201x801-d21b45d.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Package delivery volumes are improving</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 包裹递送量正在改善</h2>
</div><p>First, as the chart demonstrates, the decline in volume growth is moderating. FedEx management recently said it sees demand and volumes improving from here. Regarding its U.S. domestic package volume, UPS management said it expected &#34;a little bit of a slight tick up in positive volume in the second quarter&#34; in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，正如图表所示，交易量增长的下降正在减缓。联邦快递管理层最近表示，他们看到需求和交易量正在改善。关于其美国国内包裹交易量，UPS 管理层表示，他们预计四月份第二季度的正交易量会略微增加。</p>
</div><p>If package delivery volumes continue to grow, this will help reduce the market's overcapacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果包裹递送量继续增长，这将有助于减少市场的供过于求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Faverage-daily-package-volume-growth-yoy-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS and FedEx presentations. *FedEx numbers are adjusted to the nearest UPS quarter. YOY=year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：UPS 和联邦快递演示。 * 联邦快递的数字已调整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增长。</p>
</div><h2>2. E-commerce deliveries are coming back</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 电子商务交易正在回升</h2>
</div><p>Another positive sign is FedEx management's belief that e-commerce growth was coming back. FedEx expects its revenue to grow at a low-single-to-mid-single-digit rate in its current financial year, which ends at the end of May 2025. The assumptions behind this guidance were listed as yield expansion (more on that in a moment), global industrial production growth, and growth in domestic e-commerce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个积极的迹象是联邦快递管理层认为电子商务增长正在回升。联邦快递预计其当前财政年度（截至 2025 年 5 月底）的收入将以低个位数至中个位数的速度增长。这一指导背后的假设包括收益扩张（稍后将详细介绍）、全球工业生产增长和国内电子商务增长。</p>
</div><p>The pickup in e-commerce growth is a good sign because it indicates that consumers are starting to normalize behavior after a period of spending on things like travel and services that they couldn't do during the pandemic lockdowns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务增长的提升是一个好迹象，因为它表明消费者开始在经历了无法在疫情封锁期间进行的旅行和服务等消费后，开始恢复正常行为。</p>
</div><h2>3. Pricing and yield are still positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 定价和收益仍然积极</h2>
</div><p>Considering the market's overcapacity and both companies experiencing the worst issue in 2024, the current pricing data suggests they are handling it well. FedEx talked of a &#34;competitive but rational&#34; pricing environment. Indeed, FedEx's revenue per package increased in its most recent quarter, as did its overall company revenue per package.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到市场的供过于求以及两家公司在 2024 年经历的最严重问题，当前的定价数据表明它们处理得很好。联邦快递谈到了一个 “竞争但理性” 的定价环境。事实上，联邦快递的每件货物收入在最近一个季度增加，整体公司每件货物收入也是如此。</p>
</div><p>UPS' U.S. domestic revenue per piece (and its overall revenue per piece) was slightly negative in its first quarter, but management believes it will improve through the year as fuel prices and its fuel surcharge increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPS 的美国国内每件货物收入（以及整体每件货物收入）在其第一个季度略为负面，但管理层认为随着燃油价格和燃油附加费的增加，这种情况将在今年内得到改善。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Fus-revenue-per-piece-growth-yoy-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS and FedEx presentations. *FedEx numbers are adjusted to the nearest UPS quarter. YOY=year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：UPS 和联邦快递演示。 * 联邦快递的数字已调整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增长。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks to buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票买入</h2>
</div><p>FedEx and UPS investors will eagerly await UPS' upcoming second-quarter earnings report on July 23. If the results confirm U.S. domestic package volume growth and an improvement in revenue per piece, it will go a long way toward convincing investors that the pricing environment is solid and the industry's overcapacity is being chipped away at. That would be bullish for both stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联邦快递和 UPS 的投资者将急切地等待 UPS 于 7 月 23 日发布的第二季度财报。如果结果证实美国国内包裹交易量增长，并且每件货物收入有所改善，这将大大有助于说服投资者，表明定价环境稳固，行业的供过于求正在得到缓解。这将对两家股票都是利好。</p>
</div>

这是联合包裹和联邦快递投资者在 2024 年需要关注的 1 件事