<p>据市场观察者称，交易员预计将对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的事件做出反应，最初会涌入避险资产，并重新评估与他候任身份最相关的交易。</p><p>ATFX Global Markets 首席市场分析师表示：“毫无疑问，在亚洲早晨将会出现一些保护主义或避险资金流动。我认为黄金可能会测试历史高位，我们将看到日元走强，美元走强，资金也会流入国债。”</p><p>然而，早期市场评论表明，这一事件将提升特朗普赢得选举的机会，这将使焦点转向最受他政策影响的证券，最终可能对国债产生负面影响。</p><p>与所谓的特朗普交易相关的资产范围从美元到国债再到信用卡公司和医疗保险公司的股票。投资者认为共和党人的关税、移民和赤字政策将导致美元走强，并为这些股票领域创造更有利的环境。</p><p>交易员还将密切关注周一预期波动率的市场指标，例如对关税敏感的汇率等指标，这些指标已经开始对美国投票产生影响。</p><p>特朗普表示，在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒的政治集会上爆发枪击事件后，他的右耳中弹。他的竞选团队在一份声明中表示，他在这起事件中 “没事”，在这起事件中，他被从舞台上护送离开。集会上的一名与会者中枪身亡，枪手被美国特勤局击毙。</p><p>策略师们已经预料到将会在 11 月的选举中出现波动，至少因为民主党人仍在为上个月辩论表现不佳的总统乔·拜登而苦恼。投资者还在考虑选举可能会以长时间的争议或政治暴力结束的可能性。</p><p>但是像宾夕法尼亚州这样的事件几乎没有先例。</p><p><strong>四十年前，当时的总统罗纳德·里根遭枪击时，股市在提前收盘前下跌。次日，1981 年 3 月 31 日，标普 500 指数上涨超过 1%，而基准的 10 年期国债收益率下跌了 9 个基点至 13.13%，据彭博社编制的数据显示。</strong></p><p>BCA Research Inc.加州首席策略师表示，债券投资者应特别关注这次袭击可能会提升特朗普赢得选举的机会。</p><p>他写道：“我确实认为债券市场在某个时候会意识到特朗普总统赢得白宫的机会比任何竞争对手都高。我继续相信，随着他的胜算上升，债券市场骚动的可能性也会增加。”</p><p>Capital.com 的高级金融市场分析师表示，<strong>在这起枪击事件后，他看到客户资金流入比特币和黄金。这一消息公布后，加密货币价格出现上涨。</strong></p><p>他表示：“这一消息标志着美国政治规范的转变和更多政治暴力的出现。对于市场而言，这意味着避险交易，但更倾向于非传统避险。”</p>

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<p>交易员预计会对涉及前总统唐纳德·特朗普的枪击事件做出反应，会出现对避险资产的抢购以及与他的候选资格相关的交易重新评估。</p>

<p>Traders are expected to react to former President Donald Trump’s with an initial rush into haven assets and a revaluation of trades most linked to his candidacy, according to market watchers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据市场观察者称，交易员预计将对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的事件做出反应，最初会涌入避险资产，并重新评估与他候任身份最相关的交易。</p>
</div><p>“Undoubtedly there’ll be some protectionist or haven flows in the Asia early morning,” said , chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I’d suspect gold could test all time highs, we will see the yen getting bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries too.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ATFX Global Markets 首席市场分析师表示：“毫无疑问，在亚洲早晨将会出现一些保护主义或避险资金流动。我认为黄金可能会测试历史高位，我们将看到日元走强，美元走强，资金也会流入国债。”</p>
</div><p>However, early market commentary suggests the shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the election, which will shift focus to securities most exposed to his policies and may ultimately be negative for Treasuries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，早期市场评论表明，这一事件将提升特朗普赢得选举的机会，这将使焦点转向最受他政策影响的证券，最终可能对国债产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Assets linked to the so-called Trump trade range from the dollar to Treasuries to the shares of , credit-card companies and health insurance firms. Investors see the Republican’s policies on tariffs, immigration and deficits leading to a stronger dollar, and a more favorable environment for those equity sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与所谓的特朗普交易相关的资产范围从美元到国债再到信用卡公司和医疗保险公司的股票。投资者认为共和党人的关税、移民和赤字政策将导致美元走强，并为这些股票领域创造更有利的环境。</p>
</div><p>Traders will also closely watch market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those on the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan, which had begun to the US vote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员还将密切关注周一预期波动率的市场指标，例如对关税敏感的人民币等指标，这些指标已经开始对美国投票产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Trump said he was shot in the right ear after gunfire erupted at his political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which saw him rushed from the stage. One attendee at the rally was shot and died, and the shooter was killed by the US Secret Service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示，在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒的政治集会上爆发枪击事件后，他的右耳中弹。他的竞选团队在一份声明中表示，他在这起事件中 “没事”，在这起事件中，他被从舞台上护送离开。集会上的一名与会者中枪身亡，枪手被美国特勤局击毙。</p>
</div><p>Strategists had already expected a volatile run into the November election, not least because Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s after his debate performance last month. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election may end in a protracted dispute or political violence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略师们已经预料到将会在 11 月的选举中出现波动，至少因为民主党人仍在为上个月辩论表现不佳的总统乔·拜登而苦恼。投资者还在考虑选举可能会以长时间的争议或政治暴力结束的可能性。</p>
</div><p>But there is little precedent for events like Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market dipped before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&amp;P 500 rose over 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是像宾夕法尼亚州这样的事件几乎没有先例。四十年前，当时的总统罗纳德·里根遭枪击时，股市在提前收盘前下跌。次日，1981 年 3 月 31 日，标普 500 指数上涨超过 1%，而基准的 10 年期国债收益率下跌了 9 个基点至 13.13%，据彭博社编制的数据显示。</p>
</div><p>Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances, according to , California-based chief strategist at BCA Research Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BCA Research Inc.加州首席策略师表示，债券投资者应特别关注这次袭击可能会提升特朗普赢得选举的机会。</p>
</div><p>“I do think that the bond market should at some point, become aware of President Trump’s higher odds of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his odds rise, so should the probability of a bond market riot.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他写道：“我确实认为债券市场在某个时候会意识到特朗普总统赢得白宫的机会比任何竞争对手都高。我继续相信，随着他的胜算上升，债券市场骚动的可能性也会增加。”</p>
</div><p>, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold after the shooting. The cryptocurrency after the news broke.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Capital.com 的高级金融市场分析师表示，在这起枪击事件后，他看到客户资金流入比特币和黄金。这一消息公布后，加密货币价格出现波动。</p>
</div><p>“This news marks a changing point in American political norms and the emergency of greater political violence,” he said. “For markets, it means haven trades but more skewed towards non-traditional havens.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示：“这一消息标志着美国政治规范的转变和更多政治暴力的出现。对于市场而言，这意味着避险交易，但更倾向于非传统避险。”</p>
</div>

Haven Rush, Trump Trades on Investor Minds After Shooting

- 市场观察者表示，前总统特朗普遭枪击后，交易员预计会迅速转向避险资产，并重新评估与他竞选最相关的交易，特别是在亚洲早盘可能会出现保护主义或避险资金流动。
- 预计金价可能会创下历史新高，日元和美元可能会走强，资金也可能流入国债。早期市场评论暗示这一事件可能提振特朗普赢得选举的机会，将焦点转向受其政策影响最大的证券，可能对国债产生负面影响。
- 特朗普遭枪击事件可能会影响市场预期波动率，投资者将密切关注周一的市场表现，特别是对关税敏感的人民币等市场指标。

避险需求激增，特朗普枪击事件引发投资者关注