<p>当谈到标志性的美国品牌时，耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）很可能会首先出现在你的脑海中。这两家公司长期以来为股东带来了丰厚的回报，但是到 2024 年，情况有所不同，每只股票的年初至今跌幅均超过 20%。</p>
<p>任何时候当一只蓝筹股大幅下跌时，都值得重新审视，以确定是一个小幅波动还是更重要的下行趋势。因此，让我们看看耐克和星巴克最近的财务业绩、资产负债表、股息和估值，找出哪只股票现在是更好的购买选择。</p>
<h2>收入和利润</h2>
<p>作为一家公司的股东，你是在投资未来的增长，一般来说，每当一家公司的营收和净利润下降或低于预期时，市场都会惩罚该股票。不用看得太远，耐克和星巴克都在报告最近一个季度业绩后下跌了约 15%。</p>
<p>截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的耐克 2024 财年第四季度，公司报告净销售额 126 亿美元，同比下降 2%。管理层将这一下滑归因于其生活方式业务的下滑、数字销售下降 10% 以及中国需求疲软。首席财务官马修·弗兰德在财报电话会议上警告称，这种下滑可能不是暂时的挫折，并警告称 “未来几个季度将充满挑战”。</p>
<p>与耐克类似，星巴克也面临着需求放缓。具体来说，这家饮料巨头在 2024 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 31 日）的可比销售额下降了 3%，与 2023 财年第二季度相比，交易减少了 7%。总体而言，星巴克实现了 856 亿美元的净销售额，同比下降了 1.8%。在高于平均水平的通货膨胀和星巴克在此期间新开设 583 家净店的背景下，收入和利润的下降更加令人沮丧。星巴克管理层还将该季度的店铺流量下降和中国需求疲软归咎于这一令人失望的季度。展望未来，星巴克管理层已将 2024 财年的收入增长预期从之前的 7% 至 10% 调整为 “低个位数”。同样，其每股收益增长预期也从 15% 至 20% 调整为 “持平至低个位数”。</p>
<p>从每家公司的净利润来看，很明显，耐克在最近报告的季度实现了 15 亿美元的净利润，同比增长 45%，部分原因是其成功将毛利率提高了 1.1%。相比之下，星巴克在其 2024 财年第二季度实现了 7.72 亿美元的净利润，同比下降 15%。</p>
<p>尽管销售完全不同的消费产品，耐克和星巴克面临着类似的挑战。然而，在这一类别中，耐克脱颖而出，因为尽管销售放缓，但其毛利率和净利润仍在增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 季度营收数据。</p>
<h2>耐克和星巴克优先考虑股息</h2>
<p>对于像耐克和星巴克这样的成熟公司，股东们希望看到管理层通过股息和股票回购的形式将资本返还给他们。</p>
<p>耐克目前每股支付 0.37 美元的季度股息，年收益率为 2%。值得注意的是，耐克已连续 23 年支付并提高股息，表明将资本返还给股东是管理层的首要任务。</p>
<p>相比之下，星巴克持续支付并增加股息，已连续 13 年增长。星巴克每股支付的季度股息为 0.57 美元，年收益率为 3.1%。</p>
<p>考虑到最近股价的下跌，它们的股息收益率接近历史高位。但对于任何支付股息的股票，重要的是要检查其派息比，该比率衡量了公司通过股息向投资者支付的盈利百分比。一般来说，当股息支付比率达到 75% 或更高时，投资者应担心公司可能会暂停增加股息或完全削减股息。耐克的派息比为 28.2%，远低于星巴克的 60.3%。这意味着投资者可以合理地期待未来股息增加。</p>
<p>两家公司都有相对普通的股票回购计划，过去三年内每家公司的流通股份减少不到 1%。尽管如此，两家公司都确保其股份不会被稀释，股东的所有权份额在缓慢增长。</p>
<p>由于耐克的派息比较低且具有更长的股息增长历史，这个决定很难做出，但让我们将这个类别的胜利授予星巴克，因为其年度收益率更高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 股息收益率数据。</p>
<h2>每家公司的财务健康状况</h2>
<p>一家公司的资产负债表是其财务健康状况的重要快照。值得注意的是，耐克拥有 27 亿美元的净现金，与星巴克 131 亿美元的净债务形成鲜明对比。令人印象深刻的是，耐克的净现金头寸同比增长了 498%，而星巴克的净债务则下降了约 8%。</p>
<p>因此，在过去 12 个月中，耐克获得了 1.61 亿美元的利息收入，而星巴克则损失了 4.46 亿美元的利息支出。在利率相对较高的时候，星巴克可能会在未来几年看到不断增加的利息支出，而耐克则可以利用其现金储备赚取额外收入。</p>
<p>凭借耐克的现金储备，这家鞋服巨头在这一类别中遥遥领先。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 净财务债务数据。</p>
<h2>耐克还是星巴克更值得购买？</h2>
<p>考虑到耐克和星巴克长期、经得起考验的业绩记录，无论最近的财务和股票表现有多令人沮丧，这两家公司都值得一些耐心。特别是当考虑到两家公司的股票交易价格接近或达到三年来的低位前瞻市盈率时，即衡量公司当前股价与预期每股收益之比的指标，表明两家公司的估值较低。具体来说，耐克的前瞻市盈率为 23.1 倍，星巴克的前瞻市盈率为 20.8 倍。然而，如果必须在这两家公司中选择，由于其更强劲的现金状况和稳定的盈利能力，耐克是明显的赢家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 数据显示的耐克前瞻市盈率（PE 比率）。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）均出现销售和收益下滑，导致它们的股价下跌。尽管销售放缓，耐克的净收入仍有所增长，而星巴克面临门店客流量下降和中国市场需求疲软。两家公司均将股息置于优先位置，星巴克提供更高的年度股息收益率。耐克的股息支付比率较低，并且具有较长的股息增长历史。耐克拥有更强的现金头寸，而星巴克则存在净债务。总体而言，目前哪只股票更值得购买的决定是一个难以抉择的问题</p>

<p>When you think about iconic American brands, <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.04%) and <strong>Starbucks</strong>(SBUX 2.09%) are likely to come to the top of your mind. Both companies have a long history of delivering outsized returns for shareholders, but 2024 has been a different story, with each stock down more than 20% year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当谈到标志性的美国品牌时，耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）很可能会首先出现在你的脑海中。这两家公司长期以来为股东带来了丰厚的回报，但是到 2024 年，情况有所不同，每只股票的年初至今跌幅均超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>Anytime a blue chip stock is down considerably, it's worth revisiting to determine whether it's a minor blip or a more significant downtrend. So, with that in mind, let's look at Nike and Starbucks' recent financial results, balance sheets, dividends, and valuations to find out which stock is the better buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何时候当一只蓝筹股大幅下跌时，都值得重新审视，以确定是一个小幅波动还是更重要的下行趋势。因此，让我们看看耐克和星巴克最近的财务业绩、资产负债表、股息和估值，找出哪只股票现在是更好的购买选择。</p>
</div><h2>The top and bottom lines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入和利润</h2>
</div><p>As a shareholder of a company, you are investing in future growth, and generally speaking, anytime a company's revenue and net income decrease or fall below expectations, the market will punish the stock. Look no further than Nike and Starbucks, which have both dropped roughly 15% since reporting their most recent quarterly earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家公司的股东，你是在投资未来的增长，一般来说，每当一家公司的营收和净利润下降或低于预期时，市场都会惩罚该股票。不用看得太远，耐克和星巴克都在报告最近一个季度业绩后下跌了约 15%。</p>
</div><p>For Nike's fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 ended May 31, the company reported $12.6 billion in net sales, marking a 2% year-over-year decline. Management attributed this drop to a downturn in its lifestyle business, a 10% decrease in digital sales, and weakened demand in China. CFO Matthew Friend cautioned during the earnings call that this decline might not be a temporary setback, warning that &#34;the next few quarters will be challenging.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的耐克 2024 财年第四季度，公司报告净销售额 126 亿美元，同比下降 2%。管理层将这一下滑归因于其生活方式业务的下滑、数字销售下降 10% 以及中国需求疲软。首席财务官马修·弗兰德在财报电话会议上警告称，这种下滑可能不是暂时的挫折，并警告称 “未来几个季度将充满挑战”。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Nike, Starbucks also faced slowing demand. Specifically, the beverage giant saw comparable sales fall 3% with 7% fewer transactions in fiscal Q2 2024 ended Mar. 31 compared to its fiscal Q2 2023. Overall, Starbucks generated $8.56 billion in net sales, resulting in a year-over-year decline of 1.8%. The drop in revenue and earnings is even more discouraging amid the backdrop of higher-than-average inflation and Starbucks opening 583 net-new stores during that time. Starbucks management also blamed a decline in store traffic and weak demand in China for the disappointing quarter. Looking ahead, Starbucks management has revised its revenue-growth guidance for fiscal 2024 from the previous range of 7% to 10% down to &#34;low single digits.&#34; Similarly, its earnings-per-share growth forecast has been adjusted from 15% to 20% to &#34;flat to low single digits.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与耐克类似，星巴克也面临着需求放缓。具体来说，这家饮料巨头在 2024 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 31 日）的可比销售额下降了 3%，与 2023 财年第二季度相比，交易减少了 7%。总体而言，星巴克实现了 856 亿美元的净销售额，同比下降了 1.8%。在高于平均水平的通货膨胀和星巴克在此期间新开设 583 家净店的背景下，收入和利润的下降更加令人沮丧。星巴克管理层还将该季度的店铺流量下降和中国需求疲软归咎于这一令人失望的季度。展望未来，星巴克管理层已将 2024 财年的收入增长预期从之前的 7% 至 10% 调整为 “低个位数”。同样，其每股收益增长预期也从 15% 至 20% 调整为 “持平至低个位数”。</p>
</div><p>Looking at each company's bottom line, it's clear that Nike generated $1.5 billion in net income for its most recently reported quarter, representing 45% year-over-year growth in part due to its ability to expand its gross margin by 1.1%. For comparison, Starbucks generated $772 million in net income during its fiscal Q2 2024, equating to a 15% year-over-year decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从每家公司的净利润来看，很明显，耐克在最近报告的季度实现了 15 亿美元的净利润，同比增长 45%，部分原因是其成功将毛利率提高了 1.1%。相比之下，星巴克在其 2024 财年第二季度实现了 7.72 亿美元的净利润，同比下降 15%。</p>
</div><p>Despite selling completely different consumer products, Nike and Starbucks face similar challenges. Still, this category goes to Nike, considering it grew its gross margin and net income despite its slowing sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管销售完全不同的消费产品，耐克和星巴克面临着类似的挑战。然而，在这一类别中，耐克脱颖而出，因为尽管销售放缓，但其毛利率和净利润仍在增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 季度营收数据。</p>
</div><h2>Nike and Starbucks prioritize dividends</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克和星巴克优先考虑股息</h2>
</div><p>For mature companies like Nike and Starbucks, shareholders expect to see capital returned to them by management in the form of dividends and share repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像耐克和星巴克这样的成熟公司，股东们希望看到管理层通过股息和股票回购的形式将资本返还给他们。</p>
</div><p>Nike currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share, equating to an annual yield of 2%. Notably, Nike has paid and raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years, demonstrating that returning capital to shareholders is a priority for management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克目前每股支付 0.37 美元的季度股息，年收益率为 2%。值得注意的是，耐克已连续 23 年支付并提高股息，表明将资本返还给股东是管理层的首要任务。</p>
</div><p>Comparably, Starbucks consistently pays and increases its dividend, with 13 consecutive years of dividend growth. Starbucks does pay a higher quarterly dividend at $0.57 per share, representing an annual yield of 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，星巴克持续支付并增加股息，已连续 13 年增长。星巴克每股支付的季度股息为 0.57 美元，年收益率为 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>Given the recent drop in each stock, its dividend yields are near an all-time high. But for any dividend-paying stock, it's important to examine its payout ratio, which measures the percentage of earnings it pays out to investors through dividends. Generally, a stock with a payout ratio of 75% or higher is when investors should worry that the company could potentially pause dividend increases or cut them altogether. Nike has a significantly lower payout ratio at 28.2% compared to Starbucks' 60.3%. That means investors can reasonably expect dividend increases in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到最近股价的下跌，它们的股息收益率接近历史高位。但对于任何支付股息的股票，重要的是要检查其派息比，该比率衡量了公司通过股息向投资者支付的盈利百分比。一般来说，当股息支付比率达到 75% 或更高时，投资者应担心公司可能会暂停增加股息或完全削减股息。耐克的派息比为 28.2%，远低于星巴克的 60.3%。这意味着投资者可以合理地期待未来股息增加。</p>
</div><p>Both companies have relatively pedestrian share-repurchase programs, with each having lowered its shares outstanding by less than 1% over the past three years. Nonetheless, both companies ensure that their shares aren't diluted and that shareholders' ownership stakes are growing, albeit slowly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两家公司都有相对普通的股票回购计划，过去三年内每家公司的流通股份减少不到 1%。尽管如此，两家公司都确保其股份不会被稀释，股东的所有权份额在缓慢增长。</p>
</div><p>The decision is a close call due to Nike's lower payout ratio and longer dividend-growth history, but let's give this category to Starbucks for the higher-annual yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于耐克的派息比较低且具有更长的股息增长历史，这个决定很难做出，但让我们将这个类别的胜利授予星巴克，因为其年度收益率更高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Dividend Yield data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 股息收益率数据。</p>
</div><h2>The financial health of each company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每家公司的财务健康状况</h2>
</div><p>A company's balance sheet serves as a vital snapshot of its financial health. Notably, Nike boasts a superior cash position with $2.7 billion in net cash, starkly contrasting to Starbucks' $13.1 billion net debt. Impressively, Nike's net-cash position has surged by 498% year over year, while Starbucks' net debt has deteriorated by approximately 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一家公司的资产负债表是其财务健康状况的重要快照。值得注意的是，耐克拥有 27 亿美元的净现金，与星巴克 131 亿美元的净债务形成鲜明对比。令人印象深刻的是，耐克的净现金头寸同比增长了 498%，而星巴克的净债务则下降了约 8%。</p>
</div><p>As a result, over the trailing 12 months, Nike earned $161 million in interest income compared to Starbucks, losing $446 million in interest expenses. At a time when interest rates are relatively high, Starbucks will likely see growing interest expenses in the years ahead, while Nike can earn extra income with its cash pile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在过去 12 个月中，耐克获得了 1.61 亿美元的利息收入，而星巴克则损失了 4.46 亿美元的利息支出。在利率相对较高的时候，星巴克可能会在未来几年看到不断增加的利息支出，而耐克则可以利用其现金储备赚取额外收入。</p>
</div><p>With Nike's cash pile, the shoe and apparel behemoth wins this category in a landslide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借耐克的现金储备，这家鞋服巨头在这一类别中遥遥领先。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Net Financial Debt (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 净财务债务数据。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nike or Starbucks the better buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克还是星巴克更值得购买？</h2>
</div><p>Given Nike and Starbucks' long, proven track records, the companies deserve some patience no matter how frustrating the recent financial and stock performance has been. This sentiment is especially true when considering both stocks are trading at or near a three-year low forward price-to-earnings ratio, which measures a company's current stock price to its expected earnings per share over the next 12 months, indicating both stocks are trading at cheap valuations. Specifically, Nike trades 23.1 times forward earnings, and Starbucks trades 20.8 times forward earnings. Still, if you have to pick between the two stocks, Nike is the clear winner due to its stronger cash position and stable earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到耐克和星巴克长期、经得起考验的业绩记录，无论最近的财务和股票表现有多令人沮丧，这两家公司都值得一些耐心。特别是当考虑到两家公司的股票交易价格接近或达到三年来的低位前瞻市盈率时，即衡量公司当前股价与预期每股收益之比的指标，表明两家公司的估值较低。具体来说，耐克的前瞻市盈率为 23.1 倍，星巴克的前瞻市盈率为 20.8 倍。然而，如果必须在这两家公司中选择，由于其更强劲的现金状况和稳定的盈利能力，耐克是明显的赢家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png"/></p>
<p>NKE PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 数据显示的耐克前瞻市盈率（PE 比率）。</p>
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当前最值得购买的股票：耐克 vs. 星巴克