<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg"/></p>
<p>澳元兑美元汇率本周继续大幅下跌，因对澳大利亚和中国经济的担忧持续。澳元已连续八天下跌，这是去年 8 月以来最长的下跌周期。自 6 月份最高点以来，已下跌超过 3%。</p>
<h2>澳洲央行加息可能性下降</h2>
<p>在当前暴跌之前，澳元是表现最好的货币之一。今年最低点和最高点之间上涨了近 7%，因为澳大利亚央行（RBA）加息的可能性增加。</p>
<p>今年以来，澳洲央行一直是最鹰派的中央银行之一。在最近的会议上，官员们甚至讨论了因通胀水平升高而加息的利弊。</p>
<p>会员们决定不加息，而是警告称，如果通胀持续高企，可能会加息。</p>
<p>最近的经济数据显示，该国的通胀呈下降趋势，但仍高于 2% 的目标。首季的消费者价格指数（CPI）从 7.8% 的峰值下降至 3.6%。</p>
<p>与其他国家不同，澳大利亚每季度发布其通胀数据，这意味着有一定的滞后性。它还发布每月的 CPI 指标，提供更多关于通胀趋势的信息。最新数据显示，5 月 CPI 上涨至 4.0%，高于预期的 3.8%。</p>
<p>尽管通胀数据稳定，分析师们现在认为澳洲央行今年不会加息。相反，该行将选择长期保持较高利率，并在今年 12 月或 2024 年开始降息。彭博分析师在一份报告中表示：</p>
<p>“我们认为澳洲央行将选择保持利率不变。首先，下一轮通胀数据应该会有所降温。什么将左右决策的是澳洲央行对通胀预期的判断以及通胀在 18-24 个月后的预测 — 我们认为央行可能会选择长期保持高利率。”</p>
<p>周三发布的数据显示，服务业采购经理人指数从 6 月的 51.2 下降至 7 月的 50.8。制造业采购经理人指数略有上升至 47.4，意味着该行业仍在收缩。</p>
<h2>中国经济数据</h2>
<p>澳元兑美元汇率也因中国的情况而下跌，中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。最近数据显示，中国 7 月份的工业生产和零售销售下降，而第二季度经济增长为 4.7%，低于分析师预期的 5.1%。</p>
<p>与此同时，北京在领导人会议上没有宣布任何刺激计划。这意味着该国经济可能无法达到今年 5% 的年度目标。</p>
<p>因此，澳大利亚大部分出口商品如铁矿石和煤炭的价格在过去几周下跌。其他工业金属也出现回落。</p>
<h2>美联储和澳洲央行的决定</h2>
<p>下一个重要的澳元兑美元的消息将来自美国，美国将于周四发布其第二季度 GDP 数据，周五发布 7 月个人消费支出（PCE）数据。</p>
<p>经济学家预计数据将显示，第二季度经济增长了 1.7%，而第一季度增长了 1.3%。从历史上看，GDP 数据对美元影响不大。</p>
<p>市场认为，7 月 PCE 通胀数据将降至 2.4%，核心 PCE 将降至 2.5%。如果这些估计是正确的，这意味着通胀正在下降，这将受到美联储的青睐。</p>
<p>大多数分析师预计，美联储将在下周三将利率维持在 5.25% 至 5.50% 之间不变。该行还将指出今年将进行一次降息，官员们将等待下一轮经济数据。</p>
<p>最重要的数据将是 7 月份的就业和通胀报告。如果数据显示 7 月失业率再次上升，将增加 9 月降息的可能性。美联储指出，他们现在更关注劳动力市场而不是通胀。</p>
<p>澳洲央行将于 8 月 6 日宣布其利率决定。</p>
<h2>澳元兑美元技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>澳元兑美元 TradingView 图表</p>
<p>日线图显示，澳元正在持续下跌，已连续八天下跌。甚至已跌破 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA），接近 6 月 10 日的最低点 0.6576 的关键支撑位。跌破 200 EMA 被视为市场上极为熊市的迹象。</p>
<p>资金流指数（MFI）已跌破 50 的中性点，即将触及超卖水平。此外，Awesome Oscillator 已穿越零线，动量指标向下倾斜。</p>
<p>因此，澳元兑美元可能会继续下跌，卖方将瞄准 0.6500 的关键支撑位。然而，投资者买入低点时也可能出现短暂反弹。</p>
<p>澳元兑美元下跌至 200 EMA 以下的预测文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

里奇兄弟拍卖

<p>AUD/USD 汇率由于对澳大利亚和中国经济的担忧而持续下跌。澳元已连续下跌八天，这是自去年 8 月以来最长的下跌周期，跌幅超过了自 6 月份最高点以来的 3%。分析师认为，澳大利亚联邦储备银行（RBA）今年不会加息，并可能在 12 月或 2024 年开始降息。AUD/USD 货币对的下跌也受到中国经济数据的影响，中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。该货币对的下一则重要消息将来自美国，随着第二季度 GDP 数据和 7 月 PCE 数据的发布。预计美联储将维持利率不变，而 RBA 将于 8 月 6 日公布其利率决定。澳元的下跌也反映在技术分析中，因为它已跌破了 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA）</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg"/></p>
<p>The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its strong freefall this week as concerns about the Australian and Chinese economies continued. The Aussie has dropped for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since August last year. It has plunged by over 3% from its highest point in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元汇率本周继续大幅下跌，因对澳大利亚和中国经济的担忧持续。澳元已连续八天下跌，这是去年 8 月以来最长的下跌周期。自 6 月份最高点以来，已下跌超过 3%。</p>
</div><h2>Odds of RBA rate hike fall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳洲央行加息可能性下降</h2>
</div><p>The Australian dollar has been one of the best-performing currencies before the current plunge. It was up by almost 7% between its lowest and highest points this year as odds of a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前暴跌之前，澳元是表现最好的货币之一。今年最低点和最高点之间上涨了近 7%，因为澳大利亚央行（RBA）加息的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>The RBA has been one of the most hawkish central banks this year. In its last meeting, the officials even deliberated the merits of hiking interest rates because of the elevated inflation levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年以来，澳洲央行一直是最鹰派的中央银行之一。在最近的会议上，官员们甚至讨论了因通胀水平升高而加息的利弊。</p>
</div><p>The members decided not to hike interest rates but, instead, warned that an increase may happen if inflation remains stubbornly high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会员们决定不加息，而是警告称，如果通胀持续高企，可能会加息。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers have shown that the country’s inflation has been in a downward trend but it remained above the 2% target. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from a peak of 7.8% to 3.6% in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的经济数据显示，该国的通胀呈下降趋势，但仍高于 2% 的目标。首季的消费者价格指数（CPI）从 7.8% 的峰值下降至 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Unlike other countries, Australia releases its inflation numbers quarterly, meaning that there is a lag. It also releases the monthly CPI indicator, which provides more information about inflation trends. The most recent data showed that the CPI rose to 4.0% in May, higher than the expected 3.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其他国家不同，澳大利亚每季度发布其通胀数据，这意味着有一定的滞后性。它还发布每月的 CPI 指标，提供更多关于通胀趋势的信息。最新数据显示，5 月 CPI 上涨至 4.0%，高于预期的 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>Despite the steady inflation numbers, analysts now believe that the RBA will not hike interest rates this year. Instead, the bank will opt to leave rates higher for longer and start cutting either in December or in 2024. In a note, a Bloomberg analyst said:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀数据稳定，分析师们现在认为澳洲央行今年不会加息。相反，该行将选择长期保持较高利率，并在今年 12 月或 2024 年开始降息。彭博分析师在一份报告中表示：</p>
</div><p>“Our bet is that the RBA will opt to hold. For one, the next inflation readings should be a little cooler. What will tip the balance will be the RBA’s judgment on inflation expectations and forecasts for where inflation will be in 18-24 months — we think the central bank will likely stay in a high-for-longer holding pattern.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为澳洲央行将选择保持利率不变。首先，下一轮通胀数据应该会有所降温。什么将左右决策的是澳洲央行对通胀预期的判断以及通胀在 18-24 个月后的预测 — 我们认为央行可能会选择长期保持高利率。”</p>
</div><p>Data released on Wednesday showed that the services PMI dropped from 51.2 in June to 50.8 in July. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 47.4, meaning that the sector is still contracting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三发布的数据显示，服务业采购经理人指数从 6 月的 51.2 下降至 7 月的 50.8。制造业采购经理人指数略有上升至 47.4，意味着该行业仍在收缩。</p>
</div><h2>China economic numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国经济数据</h2>
</div><p>The AUD/USD pair has also dropped because of the happenings in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. Recent data showed that the country’s industrial production and retail sales dropped in July while the economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter, missing the analysts estimates of 5.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元汇率也因中国的情况而下跌，中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。最近数据显示，中国 7 月份的工业生产和零售销售下降，而第二季度经济增长为 4.7%，低于分析师预期的 5.1%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Beijing did not announce any stimulus package at the Third Plenum, a gathering of leaders. This means that the country’s economy may not reach its 5% annual target of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，北京在领导人会议上没有宣布任何刺激计划。这意味着该国经济可能无法达到今年 5% 的年度目标。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the prices of most Australian exports like iron ore and coal have dropped in the past few weeks. Other industrial metals have also retreated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，澳大利亚大部分出口商品如铁矿石和煤炭的价格在过去几周下跌。其他工业金属也出现回落。</p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve and RBA decisions ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储和澳洲央行的决定</h2>
</div><p>The next important AUD/USD news will come from the US, which will publish its Q2 GDP data on Thursday and July’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个重要的澳元兑美元的消息将来自美国，美国将于周四发布其第二季度 GDP 数据，周五发布 7 月个人消费支出（PCE）数据。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 1.7% in Q2 after growing by 1.3% in Q1. Historically, the GDP data does not have a major impact on the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计数据将显示，第二季度经济增长了 1.7%，而第一季度增长了 1.3%。从历史上看，GDP 数据对美元影响不大。</p>
</div><p>The market believes that the PCE inflation data eased to 2.4% in July while the core PCE fell to 2.5%. If these estimates are correct, they will mean that inflation is falling, which the Federal Reserve will love.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场认为，7 月 PCE 通胀数据将降至 2.4%，核心 PCE 将降至 2.5%。如果这些估计是正确的，这意味着通胀正在下降，这将受到美联储的青睐。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50% on Wednesday next week. The bank will also point to one rate cut this year as officials waits for the next economic numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数分析师预计，美联储将在下周三将利率维持在 5.25% 至 5.50% 之间不变。该行还将指出今年将进行一次降息，官员们将等待下一轮经济数据。</p>
</div><p>The top data to watch will be the July jobs and inflation report. If the data reveals that the unemployment rate rose again in July, it will increase the odds of a September interest rate cut. The Fed has noted that it was now more concerned about the labor market than inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的数据将是 7 月份的就业和通胀报告。如果数据显示 7 月失业率再次上升，将增加 9 月降息的可能性。美联储指出，他们现在更关注劳动力市场而不是通胀。</p>
</div><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver its interest rate decision on August 6th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳洲央行将于 8 月 6 日宣布其利率决定。</p>
</div><h2>AUD/USD technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元兑美元技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>AUD/USD chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元 TradingView 图表</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the Australian dollar is falling apart as it fell for eight days straight. It has even fallen below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is nearing the key support at 0.6576, its lowest point on June 10th. Moving below the 200 EMA is seen as a highly bearish sign in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，澳元正在持续下跌，已连续八天下跌。甚至已跌破 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA），接近 6 月 10 日的最低点 0.6576 的关键支撑位。跌破 200 EMA 被视为市场上极为熊市的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The Money Flow Index (MFI) has moved below the neutral point at 50 and is about to hit its oversold level. Also, the Awesome Oscillator has crossed the zero line while the momentum indicator has tilted downwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资金流指数（MFI）已跌破 50 的中性点，即将触及超卖水平。此外，Awesome Oscillator 已穿越零线，动量指标向下倾斜。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.6500. However, a brief comeback is also possible as investors buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，澳元兑美元可能会继续下跌，卖方将瞄准 0.6500 的关键支撑位。然而，投资者买入低点时也可能出现短暂反弹。</p>
</div><p>The post AUD/USD forecast as the Australian dollar slips below the 200 EMA appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元下跌至 200 EMA 以下的预测文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

澳元/美元预测：澳元跌破 200 日均线