<p><strong>耐克</strong>（NKE -1.95%）股价于 2021 年 11 月 5 日达到历史最高水平 172.49 美元。当时，投资者对其从疫情中快速复苏、耐克直营业务持续扩张以及在中国市场强劲增长印象深刻。</p>
<p>然而，耐克股票现在交易价格比历史最高点低近 60%。让我们通过四张简单的图表来回顾这一下跌情况以及到底发生了什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：耐克。</p>
<h2>1. 营收增长停滞</h2>
<p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年（截至今年 5 月），耐克的营收以年复合增长率（CAGR）达到 8%。但在不考虑汇率影响的情况下，由于在低端市场面临宏观风险、中国实体店销售疲软、欧洲、中东和非洲地区需求不稳定以及部分经典鞋类产品需求疲软，2024 财年的营收仅增长了 1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
<p>耐克预计这种放缓将加剧，2025 财年报告的营收预计将出现中单位数下降。分析师们预计将下降 5%。</p>
<h2>2. 耐克直营失去动力</h2>
<p>过去几年，耐克的核心增长策略一直是扩大耐克直营业务，即直销业务（DTC），负责管理其自营线上和实体店。这种扩张通过剔除批发零售商提高了其毛利率，扩大了对第三方电子商务市场的壕沟，使其更加控制自己的供应链和定价策略。</p>
<p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年，耐克直营业务的营收以 15% 的 CAGR 增长，而批发业务的营收仅以 5% 的 CAGR 增长。2024 财年，耐克 42% 的销售额来自耐克直营业务，相比之下，2020 财年为 40%。不幸的是，这个增长引擎在 2024 财年也出现了停滞。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
<p>在今年 4 月的一次 CNBC 采访中，CEO 约翰·多纳霍承认，耐克在其积极扩张的直销业务中&#34;过度偏离了批发业务，超出了我们的意图&#34;，并且现在&#34;大力投资&#34;于其批发零售合作伙伴以平衡业务。多纳霍表示，这种转变将减轻其运营利润和库存的一些压力，但也表明公司正在耗尽提升自有收入的新方法。</p>
<h2>3. 在中国市场增长乏力</h2>
<p>与许多其他美国品牌一样，耐克曾将中国视为其下一个主要增长市场。通过 2021 财年，它在大中华地区实现了连续七年的双位数货币中性基础上的营收增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
<p>但在过去三年中，耐克在中国业务失去了动力。中国严格的&#34;零 COVID&#34;封锁措施阻碍了其经济复苏，消费支出放缓，耐克面临来自国内竞争对手如安踏体育（持有 FILA 在中国的权利）和李宁的激烈竞争。</p>
<h2>4. 毛利率不尽人意</h2>
<p>在 2023 财年，由于在通货膨胀环境中应对更高的折扣和物流成本，耐克的毛利率下降。然而，在 2024 财年，随着控制这些折扣、销售更多价格更高的产品以及受益于较低的物流和运费支出，其毛利率再次扩大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
<p>耐克预计其 2025 财年毛利率将提高 10 至 30 个基点。这一前景令人鼓舞，但仍低于其增长较快的竞争对手如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Lululemon</strong>，它们在最新季度分别报告了 59.7% 和 57.7% 的毛利率。</p>
<h2>那么，耐克是一个潜在的扭转局面的投资机会吗？</h2>
<p>尽管耐克的毛利率正在上升，但分析师们仍预计其 2025 财年的盈利将下降 21%，因为其营收增长停滞。其股票可能看起来以 23 倍的市盈率合理价值，但如果无法稳定营收，股价可能会下跌。因此，我建议暂时远离耐克，直到出现一些真正的好转迹象。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克的股票因多种因素而经历了显著下跌，包括收入增长停滞、耐克直营业务放缓、中国增长乏力以及毛利率不佳等。分析师预计在 2025 财年，盈利将进一步下滑。投资者在考虑投资耐克之前应谨慎行事，并等待改善迹象的出现</p>

<p><strong>Nike</strong>'s (NKE -1.95%) stock hit an all-time high of $172.49 on Nov. 5, 2021. At the time, investors were impressed by its quick recovery from the pandemic, the ongoing expansion of its Nike Direct business, and its robust growth in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>耐克</strong>（NKE -1.95%）股价于 2021 年 11 月 5 日达到历史最高水平 172.49 美元。当时，投资者对其从疫情中快速复苏、耐克直营业务持续扩张以及在中国市场强劲增长印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>However, Nike shares now trade nearly 60% below that record high. Let's review that decline -- and what exactly happened -- in four simple charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，耐克股票现在交易价格比历史最高点低近 60%。让我们通过四张简单的图表来回顾这一下跌情况以及到底发生了什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fgroup_of_nike_shoes_posed_nke.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：耐克。</p>
</div><h2>1. Its revenue growth flatlined</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 营收增长停滞</h2>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to 2024 (which ended this May), Nike's revenue increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%. But on a constant currency basis, its revenue rose just 1% in fiscal 2024 as it dealt with macro headwinds in the lower-end market, soft brick-and-mortar sales in China, uneven demand across its EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region, and weak demand for some of its classic footwear franchises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年（截至今年 5 月），耐克的营收以年复合增长率（CAGR）达到 8%。但在不考虑汇率影响的情况下，由于在低端市场面临宏观风险、中国实体店销售疲软、欧洲、中东和非洲地区需求不稳定以及部分经典鞋类产品需求疲软，2024 财年的营收仅增长了 1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
</div><p>Nike expects that slowdown to deepen, with a mid-single-digit drop in its reported revenue in fiscal 2025. Analysts are bracing for a 5% decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克预计这种放缓将加剧，2025 财年报告的营收预计将出现中单位数下降。分析师们预计将下降 5%。</p>
</div><h2>2. Nike Direct lost its momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 耐克直营失去动力</h2>
</div><p>Nike's core growth strategy over the past several years has been the expansion of Nike Direct, its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business that handles its first-party online and brick-and-mortar stores. That expansion boosted its gross margin by cutting wholesale retailers out of the loop, widened its moat against third-party e-commerce marketplaces, and gave it tighter control over its own supply chain and pricing strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，耐克的核心增长策略一直是扩大耐克直营业务，即直销业务（DTC），负责管理其自营线上和实体店。这种扩张通过剔除批发零售商提高了其毛利率，扩大了对第三方电子商务市场的壕沟，使其更加控制自己的供应链和定价策略。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to 2024, Nike Direct's revenue rose at a CAGR of 15% as its wholesale revenue only increased at a CAGR of 5%. Nike generated 42% of its sales from Nike Direct in fiscal 2024, compared to 40% of its revenue in fiscal 2020. Unfortunately, that growth engine also sputtered out in fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年，耐克直营业务的营收以 15% 的 CAGR 增长，而批发业务的营收仅以 5% 的 CAGR 增长。2024 财年，耐克 42% 的销售额来自耐克直营业务，相比之下，2020 财年为 40%。不幸的是，这个增长引擎在 2024 财年也出现了停滞。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-direct-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
</div><p>During a CNBC interview this April, CEO John Donahoe admitted that Nike had &#34;over-rotated away from wholesale a little more than we intended&#34; in its aggressive DTC expansion, and that it was now &#34;investing heavily&#34; in its wholesale retail partners to balance its business. Donahoe claims that shift will alleviate some of the pressure on its operating margin and inventories, but it also suggests the company is running out of fresh ways to boost its first-party revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年 4 月的一次 CNBC 采访中，CEO 约翰·多纳霍承认，耐克在其积极扩张的直销业务中&#34;过度偏离了批发业务，超出了我们的意图&#34;，并且现在&#34;大力投资&#34;于其批发零售合作伙伴以平衡业务。多纳霍表示，这种转变将减轻其运营利润和库存的一些压力，但也表明公司正在耗尽提升自有收入的新方法。</p>
</div><h2>3. Its lackluster growth in China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 在中国市场增长乏力</h2>
</div><p>Nike, like many other American brands, once considered China its next major growth market. It generated double-digit revenue increases in the Greater China region on a currency-neutral basis for <em>seven consecutive years</em> through fiscal 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多其他美国品牌一样，耐克曾将中国视为其下一个主要增长市场。通过 2021 财年，它在大中华地区实现了连续七年的双位数货币中性基础上的营收增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-greater-china-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
</div><p>But over the past three years, Nike's Chinese business lost its momentum. China's draconian &#34;zero COVID&#34; lockdowns stunted its economic recovery, consumer spending slowed, and Nike faced intense competition from domestic competitors like <strong>Anta Sports</strong> (which owns the Chinese rights to FILA) and <strong>Li-Ning</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在过去三年中，耐克在中国业务失去了动力。中国严格的&#34;零 COVID&#34;封锁措施阻碍了其经济复苏，消费支出放缓，耐克面临来自国内竞争对手如安踏体育（持有 FILA 在中国的权利）和李宁的激烈竞争。</p>
</div><h2>4. Its unimpressive gross margin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 毛利率不尽人意</h2>
</div><p>Nike's gross margin declined in fiscal 2023 as it grappled with steeper markdowns and higher logistics costs in an inflationary environment. However, its gross margin expanded again in fiscal 2024 as it reined in those discounts, sold a higher mix of more expensive products, and benefited from lower logistics and freight expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 财年，由于在通货膨胀环境中应对更高的折扣和物流成本，耐克的毛利率下降。然而，在 2024 财年，随着控制这些折扣、销售更多价格更高的产品以及受益于较低的物流和运费支出，其毛利率再次扩大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-annual-gross-margin-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：耐克。图表制作：作者。</p>
</div><p>Nike expects its gross margin to rise 10 to 30 basis points in fiscal 2025. That outlook is encouraging, but it's still lower than its higher-growth competitors like <strong>On Holding</strong> and <strong>Lululemon</strong>, which reported gross margins of 59.7% and 57.7%, respectively, in their latest quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克预计其 2025 财年毛利率将提高 10 至 30 个基点。这一前景令人鼓舞，但仍低于其增长较快的竞争对手如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Lululemon</strong>，它们在最新季度分别报告了 59.7% 和 57.7% 的毛利率。</p>
</div><h2>So is Nike a potential turnaround play?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>那么，耐克是一个潜在的扭转局面的投资机会吗？</h2>
</div><p>Nike's gross margin is rising, but analysts still expect its earnings to drop 21% in fiscal 2025 as its revenue growth stalls out. Its stock might seem reasonably valued at 23 times forward earnings, but the shares could head lower if it fails to stabilize its top line. So for now, I'd stay far away from Nike until a few green shoots actually appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管耐克的毛利率正在上升，但分析师们仍预计其 2025 财年的盈利将下降 21%，因为其营收增长停滞。其股票可能看起来以 23 倍的市盈率合理价值，但如果无法稳定营收，股价可能会下跌。因此，我建议暂时远离耐克，直到出现一些真正的好转迹象。</p>
</div>

为什么耐克的股票在 4 张简单的图表中暴跌了 60%